This week, scientists around the world have been baffled by a fictional asteroid.
A group of experts from U.S. and European space agencies participated in a week-long exercise led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA) in which they were faced with a hypothetical scenario: an asteroid 35 million miles away was approaching Earth and could hit within six months.
As each day of the exercise passes, participants learn more about the size, orbit and impact chances of the asteroid. Scientists must then work together, using technical expertise, to see what can be done to stop the space rock.
Unfortunately, the scientists were not up to snuff. The team concluded that given the simulated six-month time frame, no technology available to Earth could stop a hypothetical asteroid from hitting Earth. In this simulation, the asteroid struck Eastern Europe.
Although the exercise failed, to our knowledge, no asteroid has yet posed a threat to Earth in this manner. It is estimated that two-thirds of asteroids 140.21 meters in size or larger – large enough to cause considerable damage – remain undetected. That’s why NASA and other agencies are trying to prepare for such a scenario.
NASA planetary defense officer Lindley Johnson ( Lindley Johnson) said in a press release, “These exercises ultimately help planetary defense organizations communicate with each other and with our government to ensure that we are all coordinated when potential impact threats are detected in the future.”
Six months is not enough time for an asteroid to hit Earth
The fictional asteroid in the simulation, known as 2021PDC, was first “discovered” on April 19, when it was thought to have a 5 percent chance of hitting Earth on Oct. 20, six months after it was discovered, according to NASA’s scenario.
But the second day of the exercise fast-forwarded to May 2, and new impact trajectory calculations showed that 2021PDC would almost certainly hit Europe or North Africa. Participants in the simulation considered a variety of missions in which spacecraft could attempt to destroy the asteroid or deflect it from its trajectory.
They concluded that such a mission would not be possible in such a short time before the asteroid hit Earth.
“If faced with a hypothetical 2021PDC scenario in real life, we would not be able to launch any spacecraft in such a short period of time with current capabilities.” The scientists said. They have also considered using a nuclear explosive device to explode or destroy the asteroid.
Nonetheless, the simulation specified that the 2021 PDC could be between 34.75 meters and half a mile in size, so the likelihood that a nuclear bomb could leave a dent was uncertain.
The third day of the exercise fast-forwarded to June 30, and the future of Earth looked grim: 2021PDC’s impact trajectory indicated it was headed toward Eastern Europe.
By the fourth day, a week before the asteroid impact, there is a 99% chance that the asteroid will hit the border between Germany, the Czech Republic, and Austria. The energy from this explosion would be equivalent to a large nuclear bomb.
All that can be done is to evacuate the affected area in advance.
Most asteroids fly under the radar, and many are detected too late
It is easy to assume that in the real world, astronomers would take longer than six months to discover an asteroid similar to 2021 PDC. But unfortunately, the world’s ability to monitor near-Earth objects ( NEOs) is not yet perfect.
Any space rock whose orbit is within 125 million miles of the sun is considered a NEO. But Johnson said in July that NASA believes “we’ve only found about a third of the asteroids that could impact Earth.
Of course, humans want to avoid the accident that happened to the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, when a 10-kilometer-diameter asteroid slammed into Earth. But in recent years, scientists have missed many large and dangerous objects that have come close.
Comet Neowise, a 5-kilometer-wide “ice cube in space,” passed 64 million miles above Earth in July. No one knew of the comet’s existence until NASA’s space telescope spotted it approaching four months ago.
In 2013, a meteor about 19.81 meters in diameter entered the atmosphere at a speed of 64,374 kilometers per hour. It exploded without warning over Chelyabinsk, Russia ( Chelyabinsk), sending a shockwave that broke windows and damaged buildings in the area and injured more than 1,400 people.
Artist’s description of the moment when the Chicxulub asteroid hit Earth, 66 million years ago in Mexico.
In 2019, a 130.15-meter-wide, “city-killer” asteroid flew within 72,420 kilometers of Earth, with little warning from NASA.
That’s because currently, the only way scientists can track NEOs is to point one of the limited number of powerful telescopes on Earth in the right direction at the right time.
To solve this problem, NASA announced two years ago that it would launch a new space telescope dedicated to observing dangerous asteroids. The telescope, called the Near-Earth Object Surveillance Mission, along with the European Space Agency’s (ESA) newly launched Test-Bed telescope and the Flyeye telescope being built in Italy, should eventually be built. telescope), should eventually increase the number of near-Earth objects we can track.
NASA is testing ways to hinder asteroids
NASA has investigated the possibility that scientists would collide with Earth if they found a dangerous asteroid. These methods include detonating an explosive device near a space rock, as suggested by exercise participants, or firing a laser that would heat and vaporize the asteroid enough to alter its orbit.
Chelyabinsk meteor streaks across the Russian sky. Associated Press
Another possibility is to launch a spacecraft to hit an oncoming asteroid, thus deflecting it. This is NASA’s most serious strategy.
Later this year, the agency plans to test this technology. The Double Asteroid Redirect Test ( DART) will launch a spacecraft at the asteroid Dimorphos and purposefully impact it in the fall of 2022.
NASA hopes the collision will change Dimorphos’ orbit. Although the asteroid will not pose a threat to Earth, the mission could demonstrate that it is possible to change the direction of an asteroid with enough lead time.
Recent Comments