For many people, the census is a boring thing, and its length of existence probably depends on when the news pop-ups pop up. However, for national policy making, it is a really big thing, a policy based on population data, which is about the country’s livelihood and the long-term development of future generations, and it is a veritable hair-trigger. It affects not a small group of people, but the world competitiveness of a country.
The original boring such a thing, recently seems to be more and more attention. The reason is that the census has been finished for a long time, and the census results are not only called “not out”, but recently it was announced that the publication was postponed.
On November 1, 2020, the seventh national census (hereinafter referred to as the “seven people”) was officially launched, and according to the plan, the entire registration process ended on December 10. On December 30, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced the successful completion of the field work of the Seventh Census.
On March 15 of this year, NBS spokesman Liu Aihua pointed out that the Seven People’s Plan had proceeded to the final stage of review and summary, and intended to hold a conference in early April. However, six days ago Liu Aihua announced that the census results will strive to be announced early.
The first and middle of April have gone by, but the results have been released, the key is when this pigeon will return, there is still no accurate statement.
In fact, long before that, there were many voices in the community speculating that the census results would cause a stir because of the significant decline in population. At the exact same time, media reports deepened this speculation.
According to 21 Finance, at least 26 prefecture-level cities have already disclosed their population data, with the natural growth rate of the household population falling through the 0 mark in eight of them.
Fushun in Liaoning is the worst among the cities that have released data so far, with a natural population growth rate of -13.3%. Shenyang, which also had negative growth, had a relatively better figure of -3.34%, followed by Weihai in Shandong at -3.05%. In addition to this, five cities in Jiangsu, Taizhou, Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, Changzhou and Wuxi, are included in the negative natural population growth.
In addition, almost all of the cities that announced their natural population growth rates in 2020 saw a decline from the previous year.
“Some big cities are also gradually entering the zone of negative population growth, which is a major turnaround that happened silently and may not be felt by many people yet.” An expert from the Academy of Social Sciences was quoted by 21 Finance and Economics.
From 21 Finance and Economics
Of course, this is only the population data of some cities and it is too early to replace the whole country with this, but it could be a precursor.
For the nation, concerns based on the impact of a declining population on the country’s development are more of a passing thought. After all, according to the official statement, the total population of mainland China has exceeded 1.4 billion people at the end of 2019, including nearly 900 million in the labor force. With such a large workforce, what is there to fear? Optimism prevails.
However, for experts who are truly dedicated to studying China’s population issues, the situation is not optimistic.
Demographer Fuxian Yi, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, has long studied the relationship between population and social development, a field in which he has made several predictions that have come true.
Fu-Hsien Yi
In the United States, his predictions of the rise of Texas and the decline of the Great Lakes region in the Midwest are now coming true. In China, his 2000 article pointed to the decline of the Northeast, and around 2005 he determined that the center of the economy would shift from the East and North to the West and South because China’s fertility rate is high in the South and low in the North, and high in the West and low in the East, and this prediction has come true.
In 2007, Yi Fu-hsien published his book “The Empty Nest of the Great Nation” and expressed his concern about the one-size-fits-all family planning policy, arguing that policies based on misjudged population data would have a series of negative ripple effects. A tightly held one-child policy will lead to a serious demographic imbalance in China. The ensuing problems, such as increased aging and labor shortage, will become very serious, and “aging before wealth” is the country’s current situation.
When the book was published, it was supported and recommended by many scholars in economics, sociology and law, and Mao Yushi, founder of the private think tank “Tianzhi Economic Research Institute”, wrote a foreword for it, which shows its importance.
More than a decade has passed, and Yi Fu Xian’s prediction is becoming a reality.
Before Biden came to power in 2021, a former U.S. White House official published a book entitled “The Future of U.S. Policy Toward China – Recommendations for the Biden Administration”, and the key reference cited was Yi’s article on China’s population macro study. Once again, this proves the influence of his research in the world.
On the issue of China’s population, Yi has often been outspoken and pointed, which is why he was once unpopular in China. For example, at the Boao Forum in 2016, he was accused of badmouthing China after telling the New York Times that China’s economy could never surpass that of the United States.
However, as anyone who has read his books and articles knows, Yi is not just a figure of speech; behind his harsh words is bitter advice.
Based on the understanding that China’s rise depends on its population, Yi explains his assertion above.
The median age of China’s population in 1980 was only 22 years old, while that of the United States was 30 years old. is inevitable. However, since 2014, China’s labor force has been declining, and the median age has surpassed that of the United States by 2018, and is now 42 years old, compared to 38 in the United States.
If China stabilizes at a fertility rate of 1.2, or an average of 1.2 children per woman of childbearing age over her lifetime, the median age in 2035 will be 49 in China and 42 in the United States. By 2050 China is 56+ years old and the U.S. is 44 years old.
In 2007, China’s HDI was 0.8, and fertility rates would have declined even without family planning.
HDI and TFR are negatively correlated
In 2000, according to the census, the fertility rate in China was already 1.2, and it was time to encourage fertility. But the authorities thought that if the rate was relaxed, it would soar to 2.1 and family planning would continue. That same year, he predicted that China would reach a demographic and economic inflection point in 2012.
Sure enough 12 years later, China’s GDP began to fall back from 9.6 percent, and by 2019 it was already 6.1 percent.
Many people intuitively regard overpopulation as the root cause of all problems, such as traffic congestion, environmental pollution, employment pressure, and high housing prices, etc. Yi Fu-hsien punctures this illusion one by one, pointing out the deeper reasons behind the problem.
Yifuxian refutes the “overpopulation” theory
Before the full liberalization of China’s two-child policy in 2016, the authorities expected that 47 million babies would be born each year. This projection was later lowered to 22 million in 2015, perhaps because it was deemed too difficult to achieve. In fact, this expectation after the downward revision did not materialize either.
According to official statistics, the number of births in 2016 was 17.86 million, and has been declining year by year since then. 2019 even saw two figures, one from the Bureau of Statistics 14.65 million and one from the Ministry of Public Security 11.79 million, with a big difference between the two. 2020’s figure is 10.035 million.
Birth population statistics for all years
Yi Fuxian pointed out that there is a possibility of “amplification” of the real birth data, as the population is linked to the allocation of funds and other interests. He projects that China’s births will be around 10 million in 2018, which is already negative growth.
Although some of Yi’s views are not well received in China, he is gradually being liberalized because of the importance of his research. The book “The Empty Nest in the Big Country”, which he has reworked, has been published in China, and some of his papers have been published in China.
Last year, Fuxian Yi published “Simulation Analysis of the 2020 Census” in Social Science Forum 2020, No. 6, which predicted that the total population of China in 2020 should be 1.26 billion, not 1.4 billion. Along with his paper, he often calls on the Internet that the country’s development policy should be based on scientific demographic data.
Of course, this is only the opinion of Yi Fu Xian as an academic, and more people definitely still take the official data as the basis. But it is also because of his voice that the Seven People’s Plan has gained more attention than ever before.
At the end of the article, there is a status quo closely related to population policy that I would like to share with you.
Recently, data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs showed that China’s single adult population reached 240 million in 2018, with more than 77 million people living alone. 2020 saw only 8.131 million registered marriages, the lowest since 2003 and only 60 percent of the 2013 peak. China is seeing a fourth wave of singles, unlike previous waves, which were driven by an increase in divorce, this one is due to a low marriage rate.
This is also not good news for the birth rate, which has been declining year after year.
Regardless of when the census results will be released, how much data will be released, and whether or not there will be a significant decrease as speculated, that is not what matters now. What matters most is that the next census will be in 10 years, meaning that the data from this one will affect development planning for at least the next 10 years.
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