In the last two days, Shenzhen’s personnel earthquake is very eye-catching, even the mayor has been replaced, and a large number of senior Shenzhen officials, it can be said that extraordinary. Online discussion articles are blocked, there are rumors that it is and some time ago the “deep house reason” incident. Today, we’ll put a hand on the inside of a major bloodletting of senior people in Shenzhen. At the same time, also talk about the recent depression of the Shenzhen property market chill, which is also a big domestic hot spot.
Shenzhen People’s Congress Standing Committee voted on the afternoon of April 24 to appoint Qin Weizhong, who is not yet 50 years old, as deputy mayor and acting mayor of Shenzhen. At the same time, the director of Shenzhen Supervisory Committee, the president of the intermediate court and the prosecutor general of the procuratorate all changed. Before that, the Shenzhen Municipal People’s Congress accepted Chen Rugui’s resignation as mayor of the Shenzhen Municipal People’s Government, and also accepted the resignation of the director of the Supervisory Commission, the president of the Intermediate Court and the procurator general of the Public Prosecutor’s Office.
This time, four senior Shenzhen officials, including the mayor of Shenzhen, resigned en masse, which can be said to appear extremely abnormal. So, what exactly is the reason for the collective resignation of these senior officials?
First of all, this year is not a normal year for a change of government, and a normal change of government is not this time. And the two sessions of the Shenzhen Municipal Council has already passed, if it is a personnel adjustment arranged in advance long ago, it should be voted on and announced at the two sessions. Now suddenly meet to change people, can only say that this thing is sudden, not within the plan. The only explanation is that these four people made a mistake, so the collective resignation.
So, let’s see if anything has happened in Shenzhen recently. The only possibility is that Shenzhen sang against the central government on the property market regulation, false and snake, did not move to adjust the real estate, resulting in the second half of last year to the beginning of this year, the property market continues to soar. Many overseas media also believe that it is very likely that this is the reason for the big change in Shenzhen’s top brass may be related to the recent widely circulated “deep house reason” incident.
In order to control the property market bubble, to combat leveraged speculation, recently, the Chinese government to crack down on business loans speculation in the heat of the day, and Shenzhen has exploded one after another big melon, the central government asked the Shenzhen government to investigate business loans, the results of the Shenzhen government only reported a few cases, obviously in the protection of the calf in response, of course, the top is very dissatisfied.
As a result, a few days ago, a person reported a special help customers to do fake business loans agency “Shenzhen Housing”, at once revealed 102 sets of illegal business loans speculation cases, and are named, very detailed, it is said that these materials submitted to the CBIRC, shocked the whole of Shenzhen. Some people say that behind this incident, the Shenzhen Municipal Government and the CBIRC are fighting in secret, and it is likely that the CBIRC is fighting against the Shenzhen government’s inaction in controlling the business loan speculation through the “deep house” incident.
The bottom of the “deep house”: speculators fall into a variety of traps (online photo)
“In addition to business loans, the company is also operating a mode of raising capital for speculation, which allows 50 people to jointly fund the purchase of a house and sell it for a profit after the price rises, and the individual contributors can transfer their ownership qualifications at any time. This way is likened to speculation on housing in the form of equity. Moreover, the “deep house reason” is only a company, it is said that such a company is everywhere in Shenzhen, the above request strict investigation. This melon now seems to be getting bigger and bigger, many houses in Qianhai, Shenzhen have been reduced by more than 1 million and still can’t be sold. The whole of Shenzhen speculation of everyone at risk, feel the mountain rain to wind full of buildings.
So, this time, Shenzhen is really very embarrassing, see things revealed, can not hide, so also turn the gun to strict investigation. It’s no wonder that Shenzhen’s seven departments have suddenly stepped up to the plate, clearly stating that once found, will not be tolerated. But now it is obviously too late to do so, the top is not satisfied, which may be the real trigger for this personnel earthquake in Shenzhen.
From this incident can be seen, now the Chinese government to crack down on illegal funds into the property market, can be said to be in the real deal, because they are really worried about the bubble into the final madness. Once the Fed tightens the currency, it may cause China’s property market to collapse, bringing financial risks. This is something that the Chinese top brass has repeatedly worried about before.
So, how is the Shenzhen property market doing now? It is said to be very unsatisfactory, the Shenzhen property market has entered the winter.
The first manifestation is: hot money is starting to leave Shenzhen. Data show that at the end of March, Shenzhen’s domestic and foreign currency deposits balance of 10,355.104 billion yuan, although still up 15.1% year-on-year, but it is worth noting that the ringgit has fallen. And in the previous nearly six months, Shenzhen’s capital growth rate remained at about 20%, with an average increase of about 200 billion each month. But the total amount of funds in March compared to February fell 189.1 billion yuan. Behind the data reflects the investment of hot money is withdrawing from Shenzhen, this money, including local and foreign. And Shenzhen’s capital growth rate and the property market market basically remain consistent.
Shenzhen’s round of rise began with the abolition of the luxury property tax in 2019. in December 2019, the growth of funds in Shenzhen began to accelerate, and in the middle, although it experienced the epidemic and the escalation of regulation, the trend remained the same, and continued until March of this year, the growth rate began to slow down. The biggest reason is the implementation of the guide price for second-hand houses, which is a direct violent deleveraging, and banks are also strictly checking the inflow of illegal funds into the property market. People can not earn money from the property market, so they can not attract funds to invest in the property market in Shenzhen, unless they go to play new, but the chances of this hit is too small after all, and the amount of money is not large. Therefore, the current presentation is the capital began to flow out of Shenzhen.
This round of investors bursting to lead the rise in the treasure and Qianhai bore the brunt of some kill the pig plate a 20 million house price reduction of one million also no one to talk about the price, buyers are waiting and seeing, just look not buy, the volume of transactions has frozen. The reason for this is that the leverage is so great that the fresh demand can’t afford to pick up the plate.
There are also investors look at the far suburbs of the net red area, such as bright, Shajing, prices are soaring to more than 80,000, now standing on top of the mountain, but also the storm, the volume of transactions plummeted by more than 80%. So the investment customer concentrated area, the bubble is often also the largest, once the violence to leverage will obviously be affected, we must also pay attention to this risk.
Many real estate agents are very light business, these are basically released the signal of the Shenzhen property market into winter.
Corresponding with the capital outflow from Shenzhen is that the population is also flowing out of Shenzhen, which can be very unfavorable to the property market in Shenzhen.
April 23, Shenzhen 2020 national economic and social development statistics bulletin freshly released! The number of students enrolled in elementary school in 2020 is 6.5% lower than in 2019, while the number of students enrolled in elementary school in the statistical bulletin of 2019 is 204,000, still down 1% compared to 2018. 2018 statistics announced that Shenzhen elementary school students s enrollment was 206,300, a 13.7% jump from the previous year.
2019-2020 primary school students corresponding to the 2013-2014 births, from the national population births, the two-year birth population is part of the positive growth, that is, the base pool is not reduced, then why the number of elementary school students in Shenzhen enrollment is reduced?
There is only one reason: the loss of primary school students in Shenzhen, the core behind is the young parents are fleeing Shenzhen!
Why flee? We all know, high prices are exhausting the vitality of Shenzhen, a large number of people completely blocked in the door! Can not afford to stay, can not wait, can not afford to buy, can not afford to go to school, can only flee, this is the most helpless choice.
In addition to the indicator of elementary school students, there are also indicators that verify the outflow of population in Shenzhen. 26,820,700 cell phone users at the end of 2020, down by more than 2.14 million from 28,960,500 at the end of 2019. Mobile Internet users in Shenzhen, down from 25,175,000 at the end of 2019 to 24,835,100, are also down by 339,900.
Shenzhen’s resident population increased by 412,200 at the end of 2019. Looking at the trend of the last 5 years, the growth trend of Shenzhen’s resident population is slowing down, but with such a large annual inflow of people, it is reasonable that the total consumption and cell phone volume should be increasing after the population growth, but in reality it is not. So, Shenzhen is likely to have faced an outflow of population than the inflow of population!
Putting aside all the hype and concepts, the most fundamental logic of a city’s housing prices that can rise is always population and industry, both of which are a matter of whether the chicken lays eggs or the egg lays the chicken. It is true that the resident population has increased by more than 400,000, but it could also be true that more people have gone.
Population inflow has always been a proud advantage of Shenzhen, but also the best fuel for rising prices in Shenzhen under the serious imbalance between supply and demand. But if a generation of young people completely desperate, and continued to flee Shenzhen, Shenzhen high prices of the best calamity will come!
If you think about the negative population growth in various cities in China now, you can say that the calamity of high housing prices throughout China has also come.
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