As China continues to increase its military harassment around Taiwan, there is growing international concern about the risk of miscalculation and accidents in the Taiwan Strait. Following back-to-back warnings from the former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command about possible Chinese military action against Taiwan, two former Trump administration national security officials said the Taiwan Strait is now at “extreme risk” and that Taiwan must bolster its defensive capabilities and demonstrate its will to defend itself against Chinese aggression.
According to recent data from Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense, Chinese military aircraft have entered Taiwan’s southwestern air defense identification zone almost daily since April, ranging from one sortie to a maximum of 25 on April 12.
China’s increased military pressure on Taiwan has made the Taiwan Strait a flashpoint again, with Davidson, the only outgoing commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, recently mentioning at a congressional hearing that China could launch military operations against Taiwan within six years, and Aquilino, the newly appointed Indo-Pacific commander, saying that the issue of Chinese aggression against Taiwan is closer than most people believe. China’s aggressive actions in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, East China Sea and the region, coupled with warnings from U.S. military generals, have led even the Japanese government, which has always been conservative and reluctant to take a stand on the Taiwan Strait, to take a public stand and emphasize the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
The moment of “extreme danger” in the Taiwan Strait
Former Trump administration national security adviser and Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster recently pointed out in a Hoover Institution discussion on “How Dangerous is China” that Taiwan is the biggest hotspot related to China and that now is a time of “maximun danger. The moment is a time of “maximun danger.
McMaster said one of the things that worries him most is “what if the People’s Liberation Army really believes their own propaganda? What if PLA commanders think, ‘Hey, this is what President Xi wants me to do,’ and then contribute to a conflict that could escalate quickly? I think we’re at a point in time where it’s extremely dangerous, and that danger is actually increasing upward.”
McMaster believes the most critical time will be after the 2022 Beijing Olympics and the 20th Communist Party Congress. “I think what you’re seeing is a series of activities intended to make people more desensitized to their military intimidation, but what you can’t see, and Matt (Booming’s English name) might also say, is a series of other activities intended to buy off the elite through the economic and information levels to subvert Taiwan’s will.”
The need to have the will to resist China
In the same discussion with McMaster, former Trump administration deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger, who only recently left office, said Taiwan must do more for its own defense to demonstrate “the will to resist” possible Chinese aggression This is to show that that will translate into operational capability in the form of a civil defense corps, a reserve corps, special operations forces, and other groups willing to fight for every inch of Taiwan’s territory.”
Bomin, who is currently a fellow at the Hoover Institution with McMaster, said Taiwan’s previous KMT government did a lot to abolish some elements of compulsory service before Tsai was elected president in 2016, but those elements were extremely necessary for countries in similar situations, whether it was Israel or Singapore.
“You don’t say, ‘Don’t worry about military service.’ You’re actually more likely to expand military service so that your adversaries understand that every man has the ability to fight and the will to fight.” Taiwan still has much to do in this regard, according to Booming.
For years the U.S. has asked Taiwan to strengthen its self-defense capabilities by increasing defense spending to 3 percent of GDP, but Taiwan has been unable to meet that goal. 2020 defense spending in Taiwan of 2.3 percent of GDP is already a record high.
In 2021, the Tsai Ing-wen administration’s 10.7 percent increase in defense spending over the previous year also emphasizes that Taiwan will increase its investment in asymmetric capabilities, although U.S. Department of Defense officials and military experts have repeatedly reminded Taiwan of the need to strengthen its self-defense capabilities and pay more for its security in the face of China’s growing military threat.
Overconfidence in Defense Achievements
But despite the growing military threat from China, the journal Foreign Policy said in a report in early April that Taiwan is “overconfident” about its epidemic prevention achievements, remains “overly complacent” in the face of Chinese pressure, and has “no sense of urgency” about issues other than the epidemic. There is a “lack of urgency,” especially since Taiwan is in an insecure geopolitical position.
The report said, “There is an expectation among the people of Taiwan and many U.S. politicians that, as Taiwan’s unofficial ally and protector, the United States will step in in the event of Chinese aggression. But deliberate U.S. strategic ambiguity about the Taiwan Strait means that Taipei cannot rely on guarantees of U.S. assistance – and Washington will be more likely to make promises of clearer measures if Taiwan appears prepared to fight to the end for its freedom.”
The report mentions that Taiwan is at a disadvantage in terms of the number of ships, aircraft and troops in the face of Chinese military power, and that “if Chinese forces do land, the people must be able to assist the military in putting up a strong resistance,” but that troop availability and reserve forces are two of the most important problems Taiwan is currently experiencing, and that the Taiwanese government “firmly The Taiwanese government “firmly refuses” to expand the four months of compulsory military service or to recruit women, and “although there is a large reserve force, at least on paper, there are serious problems with training, logistics and mobilization.”
Even though Taiwan’s government has agreed to reform the reserve system, the report notes that it is a two-year trial program starting next year, and that the plan involves only 3,000 of the 770,000 reserve troops.
Hsiao Mei-chin: Taiwan does not disregard its own security
In response to the relevant content mentioned in this Foreign Policy report, the Voice of America asked Taiwan’s representative to the U.S., Mei-Chin Hsiao, to respond during a recent media briefing in Twin Oaks.
Hsiao said that Taiwan has been facing the threat of communist forces for decades, especially after the Taiwan Strait crisis in Taiwan’s first direct presidential election, China’s “civil attack and military intimidation” against Taiwan has always existed, and the people of Taiwan have always faced this threat, in addition to military threats and political and economic coercion In addition to the military asymmetric warfare, we also emphasize the will of the people of Taiwan to defend themselves against economic and political threats.”
She said, whether it is false information over the past few years, various gray areas of friction and conflict and the risk of threats, Taiwan should continue to be prepared, for example, network security and various infrastructure have encountered risks, Taiwan has also been in the process of continuing to strengthen their own defense, “there is no lack of attention to their own security issues, the process is ongoing. “
Observers believe that while Taiwan’s leadership has a clear understanding of the defense challenges facing Taiwan, the same is not true of the general public.
Riding on security promises
“In an interview with Voice of America, Chen Fang-sumi, co-editor of the U.S. Taiwan Observatory website, said the United States has been telling Taiwan explicitly and implicitly that it must invest more in its own security, including in the strategic ambiguity policy debate, and one of the main arguments is the fear that “a security commitment is a way to give people a free ride. One of the main arguments is also the fear that “a security commitment is a hitchhiker” that makes Taiwan not want to defend itself, even though, as Bo Ming recently criticized Taiwan’s lack of troops, there is “very little discussion in Taiwan.”
Chen Fang-sum said that Taiwan’s leadership and President Tsai Ing-wen’s national security team have strengthened Taiwan’s security and defense awareness in their defense policies, and Foreign Minister Wu Chiu-sup has responded to U.S. questions by saying that Taiwan will take responsibility for its own defense in speeches or interviews with the U.S. media. “.
For the former U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Davidson China may invade Taiwan within six years of the timeline warning, does the general public in Taiwan have this sense of urgency or crisis awareness? Chen Fansum said, in terms of military defense, Taiwan “now the atmosphere is indeed not such a self-awareness”, which he believes “is indeed a quite serious problem”.
As for the lack of urgency of the crisis in Taiwan society, and the stock market performance has not been affected by the threat and pressure of the PLA, could it be because most people believe that China will not attack Taiwan? Chen said that perhaps these things are “so far away from the general public that they simply don’t think about them,” but he said that “the government could indeed do more in terms of raising national defense awareness for all.”
Failing to Meet Self-Defense Needs
A Wall Street Journal report last week noted that fears of conflict over China’s increased activity around the Taiwan Strait have led the United States to “pay more attention to Taiwan’s defense weaknesses,” with security experts saying that Taiwan must do more to prepare for conflict.
The report quoted Lee Hee-Ming, a former chief of staff who proposed Taiwan’s Overall Defense Concept (ODC), as saying that from his perspective, Taiwan is “far behind” in meeting its own defense needs and that it must invest more in asymmetric warfare capabilities, such as mines, missile attacks on ships and other weapons. Taiwan must invest more in asymmetric warfare capabilities, such as mines, missile attack vessels and mobile rocket launchers, which could increase Taiwan’s ability to conduct guerrilla-style operations.
Taiwan’s military launched the first half of the “Han Kwang 37” exercise last week with a computerized weapons rehearsal, and the second half of the actual military exercise is scheduled to take place in July. The Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan said that the 8-day, 7-night, 24-hour continuous military chess exercise will “simulate various possible actions of enemy forces attacking Taiwan with the most demanding enemy threat scenarios”; the actual military exercise in July will be based on “preservation of combat power, overall air defense, joint sea control, and United Nations land defense” as the drill courses. The July exercise will focus on “preservation of combat power, overall air defense, joint sea control, and United Nations land defense”.
Recent Comments