2020 U.S. Census forms.
The U.S. Census Bureau released the first data for the 2020 Census on Monday (April 26). The U.S. census is conducted every 10 years and the population data will be used to allocate seats in the House of Representatives for the next decade.
In the past decade, the U.S. population grew by 7.4 percent, the second-lowest historical growth rate since the first census in 1790. The lowest recorded was in the 1930s.
The slow population growth of the past decade is an echo of the Great Depression of the financial crisis. The census results both confirm long-standing population growth trends and offer a number of surprises to demographers and political observers.
The first wave of data from the 2020 Census brings four major points of interest.
Sunbelt beats the Rust Belt
For a century, Sunbelt and Western states have been expanding their populations while Northeastern and Rust Belt states have been declining. 2020 Census results confirm that this trend is continuing.
Seven states are about to lose a House seat in Congress, and six of them – Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia – are located in the “Rust Belt “.
The census results mark the tenth consecutive time Pennsylvania has lost a House seat in the redistricting process, New York the eighth consecutive time, and Illinois the ninth consecutive time.
Four of the six states that will gain seats instead – Texas, Colorado, North Carolina and Florida – are in the Sun Belt.
Texas has added at least one new seat in each of the last eight reapportionment cycles, dating back as far as the 1950 census. Florida has gained an additional seat in each of the last 12 consecutive reapportionments.
New York State lost a seat to 89 fewer residents
The graphic comparison is that at the time of the 1940 census, New York had 45 seats in the House of Representatives, the same number as California, Texas and Florida. But after the 2020 census and in the next Congress, New York will have 11 fewer House members than Texas.
The competition for 435 seats in Congress this year is the most intense ever. Minnesota was predicted to lose one House seat, making it one of eight states to lose seats this year, but Minnesota retained its seat with 26 more residents.
In addition, New York lost a House seat with 89 fewer residents.
The Capitol Hill reports that as of last year’s census date, New York lost nearly 2,000 people to the Chinese Communist virus (coronavirus, COVID-19), far more than the number needed to retain their seats.
California ends streak of seat gains
California has added at least one House seat every decade since joining the Union in 1850, and with their House seats having stabilized at 53 before the 2010 census, California is the state with the most House seats in the United States.
But now, for the first time in its history, California is losing a seat due to a combination of low immigration rates and high in-state migration rates.
California’s population has grown by 6.1 percent over the past decade, lagging behind the national average and less than half that of neighboring Nevada and the states of Texas and Florida.
California experts expect the state’s independent redistricting commission to consolidate some precincts in Los Angeles County, where suburban population growth has not kept pace with the rest of the state. It’s unclear which districts are in jeopardy, but two incumbents are expected to run against each other next year.
Western state is booming
Californians who have moved away from California have not gone far. Five of the eight western states – Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Arizona and Colorado – have all seen their populations grow by more than 10 percent in the past decade. Montana also had a 9.6 percent population increase.
Other West Coast states are also doing well. Washington gained a new House seat last decade, and Oregon will gain a new seat this time around, with both states posting double-digit population growth rates.
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