In the past few days, a news story has been circulating on the Internet, saying that an old lady bought Changchun High-tech in 2008 with 50,000 yuan, and then forgot about it, and when she went to cancel her account a few days ago, she was shocked to find that the initial 50,000 yuan had become 5 million yuan, and her legs were weak at the scene.
The matter itself is true, the relevant brokerage firms have responded to confirm, but different media interpretation of the matter is open to question. One of the more mainstream voices is praising this as a triumph of value investing, showing that long-term positions and overcoming the temptation of price fluctuations eventually yielded huge gains.
I would like to add a few points that come to my mind.
1, Changchun high-tech now 480 yuan, the old lady if you want to earn 100 times, it would have to be about 4.8 yuan to buy. This price in 2008 is not easy to buy, the lowest price in that year is 4.72 yuan, the whole year, the share price is below 4.8 yuan only 2 days, the 2 days of the SSE index in about 1700 points, in the vicinity of the 1664 point historical bottom, that is to say, this buy point itself has a great element of luck.
2, from the first article can be deduced from the old lady to buy time at the end of October 2008, then I can further tell you a data, at that time the A-shares have 1560 stocks, take away these years delisted companies, still in the A-shares have 1540. If you pick a stock at the beginning of November 2008 with your eyes closed and buy and hold it till now, there are 1,277 stocks in these 1,540 stocks that are profitable, the probability of winning is 83%.
3, I did a little sorting of the cumulative gains of the 1540 stocks, the top 20 are like this, the old lady was lucky to buy the 13th ranking of Changchun High-tech, beating 99.15% of the choices on the market at the time, including the 15th ranking of Maotai, which also requires a lot of luck.
4, I mentioned luck twice before, if the timing of the purchase (near 1700 points) may be the old lady’s good eye, then beat 99% of the stock selection to Changchun High-tech is certainly a blindfold. Because Changchun High-Tech was a real estate company at that time, the reason why it could later become a 100 billion white horse stock is because it absorbed and merged with Jinsai Pharmaceutical in the previous years, which I introduced before, it is a pharmaceutical company that does children’s growth hormone, and the performance is very powerful, and all this is not known in 2008. If Changchun High-tech is still doing real estate in the northeast, probably the graveyard weeds have changed several crops.
5, the old lady bought 50,000 shares after forgetting that this happened in October 2008. We can recall how cheap the end of 2008, 50,000 yuan in most cities in the northeast can be used as a down payment to buy a suite, the old lady would forget, plus the news that she lives abroad all the time, it is clear that a rich person. And this, in fact, is the important condition behind the implicit nature of this matter.
Well, I will add these, the incident itself has too much chance, it is difficult for ordinary people to replicate. But it is indicative of the formula for making 100 times in A-shares.
1% probability of luck + 10+ years + forget it exists = 100x earnings.
In these three elements, 10 years is the hard cost, 1% probability of luck many people have had, in fact, the most difficult is “forget it exists”, because only forget it, retail investors can hold 100 times the floating profit.
Recent Comments