CCP policies are fickle, and doing business with the CCP is the least safe! Tesla, once the darling of the Chinese Communist Party, is now being suppressed across the country. The same is true for U.S. corn, which has gone from a previous boycott to a rush to buy, causing prices to soar to an eight-year high.
East Airline flight attendant party secretary sleeping with the incident reversed! Shanghai police actually arrested the explosive, the network exploded.
Some people cry and some people laugh! In recent years the e-commerce economy is booming, the physical store is in danger, but two kinds of physical stores are opening more and more.
Financial commentators recently said that China’s residents have no money is a long-term problem, and there has been flour more expensive than bread, downstream companies can not avoid losses, the vicious circle of China’s economic bankruptcy tide has begun.
Rare earth war opens, Australian lithium miners bash 400 billion.
Tesla crackdown escalates, Guangzhou bans road access on multiple sections (video)
After the Shanghai Auto Show incident, the Chinese Communist Party’s official media is in full force “rounding up” Tesla’s electric cars, and the Chinese Communist Party officials are accused of being behind the scenes. In a suspected escalation of the official crackdown, Guangzhou’s traffic department banned Tesla cars from several roads.
On Friday (April 23), a video circulated on the Internet showed that Tesla cars were not allowed on the roads in Guangzhou, with traffic police or road administration officials stopping them at intersections, forcing Tesla owners to drive around the roads.
A land-based media outlet collected online reports from Tesla owners, reporting that several sections of Guangzhou had been closed to Tesla models on Friday, with multiple Tesla models stopped at the entrance to the highway or expressway, and owners prevented from moving on by traffic officials, but not told exactly why. Other brands of vehicles have been allowed to travel unimpeded.
According to online posts or chat records of Tesla owners, the Tesla was stopped at the Guangzhou Tianhe Passenger Terminal, Huangpu Bridge, Guangshan Toll Station, Tongtai Road and many other road sections, and the Tesla models stopped included almost the whole series of models such as Model X, Model 3 and Model S.
Photo: A Tesla owner revealed that the Tesla was not allowed on the Dongpu Bridge section of the Guangzhou Ring Road.
Photo: Tesla owners complained that traffic police stopped Tesla vehicles at an intersection on Tongtai Road in Baiyun District, Guangzhou.
There have been some signs of “boycotting Tesla” on the mainland after the Chinese Communist Party’s official media “besieged” Tesla, with a video circulating on the Internet showing a parking lot attendant not allowing Tesla to enter the lot. But this time, the official traffic department of Guangzhou has taken direct action to restrict Tesla’s access, showing that local authorities have escalated their crackdown on Tesla.
China’s lack of money is a long-term problem
China’s central bank data, the stock of social financing scale at the end of March was 294.55 trillion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of social financing was below 13% for the first time in 8 months, said a leading Chinese financial analyst by the fence. Liquidity brakes again.
In 2020, China’s macro leverage ratio is 279.4%. By sector, the leverage ratios for the residential, government and corporate sectors are 72.5%, 45.7% and 161.2%, up 7.4, 7.1 and 9.1 percentage points, respectively, from 2019.
China’s resident leverage ratio has largely matched or even surpassed the level of developed Western countries. A problem, however, is that there are two measures of the resident leverage ratio, one is based on total resident debt/GDP and the other is total resident debt/disposable income.
The former is used as the data caliber for calculating the residential leverage ratio in China, which would underestimate the actual debt pressure on the Chinese residential sector.
In general, emerging countries have a low ratio of resident disposable income to GDP, a feature that is particularly evident in China.
According to the Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, China’s GDP per capita reaches 72,000 yuan, while the disposable income per capita reaches 32,000 yuan, and the disposable income of residents only accounts for 44% of GDP, while this figure reaches 76% in the United States.
Using total resident debt/resident disposable income, China’s resident leverage ratio is over 160%. Consumption potential = disposable income + new debt borrowed – debt repayable. According to this formula, the consumption potential of Chinese residents has three characteristics.
First, disposable income is very low.
Second, the leverage ratio is very high and the pressure to repay debt is high.
Third, new debt borrowing is rarely used for consumption, but mainly for housing. at the end of 2019, the housing loan balance has been as high as 54% of the total debt of all residents.
Flour is more expensive than bread, and downstream losses cannot be avoided
The leverage ratio of enterprises grew by 9.1% in 2020, the highest growth rate among the three sectors (residents, enterprises and government), with a corporate leverage ratio of 161.2%, properly the end of the world, according to the column. In the wake of the epidemic, China has vigorously strengthened its credit support to enterprises to support their resumption of work and production with credit.
Two problems emerged here.
One is the rapid recovery of corporate capacity, which increased the demand for upstream raw materials.
Second, a large amount of liquidity was released, and the M2-GDP-CPI value hit a 10-year high, which showed that real enterprises simply could not consume so much money, and a large amount of money had to go to idle arbitrage. The rebound in demand for raw materials has increased the space for speculation.
Upstream raw material demand recovery, idle money and more, the bulk of the price speculation up. But downstream commodity prices are constrained by sluggish demand can not raise prices. Flour is more expensive than bread appeared, downstream losses can not be avoided.
But losses do not mean that bankruptcy will occur. Business losses are the key condition for bankruptcy, but not as long as the losses will appear bankruptcy. As long as someone is willing to lend money to a loss-making enterprise, the enterprise will not go bankrupt.
In the 1990s, there were a large number of SOEs that were losing money, but in order to ensure employment in SOEs, the government printed money to protect SOEs, and the enterprises could survive.
The survival of a large amount of mid- and downstream capacity after the epidemic relied on the fact that then not someone was willing to take the risk of lending money to small and micro enterprises. If money could be borrowed, long-term loss-making enterprises could also survive without going bankrupt.
After the epidemic, a major focus of China’s business support policy was to increase the risk tolerance of commercial banks so that they could lend money to midstream and downstream enterprises (most of the midstream and downstream are MSMEs) to keep the downstream capacity alive. In order to let the downstream production capacity survive, the policy of extending the deadline for MSMEs has been repeatedly extended.
MSME capacity has not been cleared, it is difficult for downstream commodity prices to go up, and inflation is stable.
One advantage is that printing money to protect MSMEs can keep a large amount of terminal loss capacity out of the clear, which can stabilize employment and keep inflation down.
One problem is that if this was a good solution, the wave of bankruptcy of state-owned enterprises in the 1990s, it would not have happened!
The more capacity preservation is a money printing problem, the more capacity preservation the lower inflation, it seems to have been the exact opposite of common sense, the release of water will be inflationary.
But in reality, this is only a lagging effect. In the long term, common sense is right, the more water is released, the more inflationary; but in the short term, the more water is released, the more likely to cause excess capacity downstream, the lower inflation will be; while after tightening the currency, the excess capacity downstream but will be cleared, inflation will repair the historical distortion, but will be higher.
In 1992, money in circulation grew at a rate of 36.4% and the Chinese economy grew at 13.2%.
In 1993, currency in circulation grew at 35.3% and the Chinese economy grew at 13.4%.
In 1994, currency in circulation grew at 24% and the Chinese economy grew at 11%.
In 1994 alone, China’s money growth rate fell by more than 10%, and the match between money growth and economic growth rate also improved significantly, but inflation was higher in 1994 instead. The reason for this is the lagged effect of printing too much money in the first two years.
In 2021, the money growth rate started to drop significantly and began to match the economic growth rate. But for the previous decade or so, there was a lot of money printing.
The vicious cycle of bankruptcy in China has begun
By the way, downstream enterprises point out that the survival of enterprises is heavily dependent on liquidity support. Liquidity tightening, downstream factories will lose financing support. Downstream loss problem lost liquidity cover will start to be exposed, bankruptcy tide appeared.
The bankruptcy tide will appear in two directions of impact, part of the people’s jobs are gone, part of the money invested is gone, and the consumption power of the people concerned will decline.
Inflation, however, will be repaired upward by the withdrawal of downstream capacity, affecting demand even more depressed.
Demand is sluggish, the entity financing will have nowhere to invest, financing demand will fall, the market impact of liquidity continues to tighten; inflation is on the upside, pressure on monetary policy continues to tighten. Both the market and policy have braking pressure, liquidity continues to tighten.
Liquidity continues to tighten, corporate losses are exposed more.
Upstream price increases start, a metaphor for increased losses downstream. And liquidity brakes, a metaphor for the vicious cycle of bankruptcy tide has begun.
Mainland stores are closing down in large numbers, but these two kinds of stores are opening more and more
A strange phenomenon has emerged in mainland China’s commercial streets, with many stores dealing with clothing, apparel, household goods, etc. closing in large numbers, but at the same time restaurants, real estate agents and pharmacies keep popping up.
According to a report on April 23rd, in a commercial street in a mainland city, many stores doing clothing, apparel and household goods have locked doors with A4 paper printouts or handwritten “Wanted Shop for Rent” on the front. And with the closure of these physical stores echoed the street is full of milk tea, snacks, fried chicken, hot pot and other restaurants. In a pedestrian street less than 1 kilometer long, there are five milk tea stores and four fried chicken stores. The same as the food and beverage stores continue to open, but also full of real estate agents and pharmacies on the street.
Because the mainland real estate fever has been high, the practitioners of high commission, real estate agents should not be surprising, and pharmacies because of the high profits also attracted funds into the industry, in the first-tier cities in mature business district, has been exaggerated to every 100 meters there is a pharmacy. Many pharmacies in street-level stores basically sell only expensive and highly profitable drugs. This makes it possible for their operating income to fully cover expenses and maintain high profits every month, even though their customer volume is low.
On the mainland, residential housing prices in many cities are getting higher every year, but the investment value of stores is shrinking, especially in some second- and third-tier cities, where not only are stores no longer in demand, but even some commercial complexes are struggling, and the frequency of subletting and closing of brick-and-mortar stores operating in apparel, home furnishings, etc. is increasing.
The reason for the closure of these physical stores, first of all, because of the rise of e-commerce online shopping, and cheap, coupled with the popularity of smart phones to facilitate people’s online shopping, e-commerce to steal some offline business.
Secondly, there is an oversupply of stores. In the international standard, the normal standard of commercial area per capita between 0.8-1.2, more than 1.2 indicates that there is a surplus. According to international standards, more than half of the continent’s cities have more than 2 stores.
Then again, high prices squeeze the physical store, which is the more critical factor. A store operating costs include three major items: store rent, personnel expenses and the cost of operating the goods themselves. Among them, store rent is the biggest cost, especially in some first-tier cities of the net commercial street, a less than 20 square feet of store rent can be as high as 100,000 yuan / month, accounting for about 80% of the total cost.
Compared to the impact of e-commerce on offline brick-and-mortar stores, high housing prices have been more than the squeeze on brick-and-mortar stores.
Eastern Airlines escorts sleeping incident reversed, Shanghai police arrested the explosive, the network exploded
The company’s main business is to provide a wide range of products and services to the public. However, netizens questioned this.
According to the “police through train – Shanghai Airport” microblogging, April 21, 2021, the airport public security bureau received a report from an employee of Eastern Airlines, Ni Mou, that someone had fabricated and spread rumors about her. After investigation, Qiumou (male, 42, freelancer) obtained Ni’s WeChat avatar and other information through a friend, and then, in order to gain attention and show off his so-called “social connections” to others, “deliberately fabricated false information related to Ni by using his two cell phones to send messages to each other The company’s main goal is to create a new and better society.
The report said that the suspect Qiumou has been criminally detained, the case is being further investigated.
Despite the strict control of the mainland network, the police microblogging notice in the above-mentioned, a large number of five-cent post, also interspersed with some netizens question: the
Little short-legged wow: all negative news is non-existent, are fabricated!
Yiju: make up this stuff over what addiction na?
egoist fringe: When the new crown first appeared, some people also said it was a fabrication.
The big devil is surprised: flight attendants sleeping with the thing is still less well? I’m not surprised, right!
On the shirt teacher: is not true, east airline heart no points?
Ms does not fall mountain: this is the best “solution” approach.
Rare earth war started, Australia lithium miners smashed 400 billion
Australian lithium miner Orocobre announced a price of $1.4 billion to acquire smaller domestic counterparts Galaxy Resources, the world’s 5th largest producer of lithium, a key material for electric vehicle batteries, after the merger, the joint venture’s market value soared to $3 billion.
Photo: Australian lithium producer Galaxy Resources’ production base in Argentina
The new joint venture will have production sites in Australia, Argentina, Canada and Japan. The two companies also emphasized in a joint statement that the Orocobre-Galaxy partnership will diversify their products and that they will consider continued M&A in the future to expand the global market.
China snaps up U.S. fall corn harvest as prices soar to 8-year high
China has been rebuilding its pig herd faster than expected after being hit by African swine fever in recent years, fueling demand for corn as feed.
Bloomberg reported that people familiar with the matter said China had begun placing orders for U.S. corn in the fourth quarter of last year, and that the current round would not be harvested until the fall, with traders estimating Chinese purchases at least 1 million tons.
Chicago corn futures also saw the biggest gains allowed on the exchange, with the July contract rising as much as 25 cents, or 4.1 percent, to $6.315 a bushel, the highest price for the most active contract since 2013.
U.S. exporters have sold more than 20 million tons of corn to China this season, the highest quarter ever, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. China is expected to import a total of 28 million tons of corn from all countries in 2020/21, a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture office in New York said this week.
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