The results of China’s census are still “not yet available,” but some local population figures have recently appeared in the media. According to the 21st Century Business Herald, at least 26 prefecture-level cities in China have disclosed their population data, with the natural population growth rate falling into negative territory in eight of them. Prior to that, some central bank experts also recently warned that China’s total population will probably peak in 2025 and go into negative growth after that, hitting the demand side of China’s economy.
It is worth noting that in addition to the northeastern cities of Shenyang and Fushun, five cities in Jiangsu, Taizhou, Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, Changzhou and Wuxi, and Weihai in Shandong, move into negative natural population growth in 2020.
Shenyang’s data show a natural population growth rate of -3.34‰ (household population) in 2020, 3.38 thousandths of a point lower than last year in 2019. Wuxi, which also has a household population of over 5 million, has a birth rate of 7.75‰ and a death rate of 7.91‰ in 2020, with a natural population growth rate of -0.16‰.
Other cities are on the verge of negative growth, such as Wuhu, Jiaxing and Ningbo with natural population growth rates of 0.12‰, 0.43‰ and 0.75‰ respectively, approaching the zero growth mark.
Wendy Wang, a sociologist from Shaanxi, China, and research director of the Institute for Family Studies (IFS), a U.S. think tank, told the station, “The U.S. fertility rate is also declining, but immigration has supplemented the fertility deficit. The negative population growth in China is so fast, and it may be mainly due to the planned economy and the impact of economic development. The social impact is multifaceted, with a declining workforce, which also brings a lot of retirement burden; Chinese tradition preaches having more children and more happiness, and the declining fertility and marriage rates have had a big impact on China’s traditional culture.”
Jiangsu’s aging population crisis is serious
In 2020, Jiangsu’s gross regional product reaches 10.27 trillion yuan, becoming the second province to break through 10 trillion yuan after Guangdong; Jiangsu’s GDP per capita reaches 125,000 yuan, ranking first in the country. Among them, Wuxi has a total economic output of 1.2 trillion yuan, and the second tier of Changzhou, Yangzhou and Taizhou have a total economic output of 530 billion to 770 billion yuan.
According to Yi Fuxian, a well-known demographer and researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Jiangsu Province strictly enforced the “family planning” policy early on, and economic development has led to an increase in education and culture and a decline in fertility, causing the Yangtze River Delta to lag behind the Pearl River Delta in terms of population dynamics.
Before the authorities ordered the liberalization of the second child, Jiangsu Province had been strictly enforcing the one-child policy, which was basically the same in urban and rural areas. 1963, Jiangsu Province set up the first provincial family planning committee in the country, giving birth to “national model counties for family planning” like Rudong.
Yi Fu Xian: “Wuxi’s population problem in 2010 has been very serious, the fertility rate is about 0.58, the northeast and 0.75. The proportion of children under 14 years old in Wuxi is only 13%, 17% in Jiangsu Province, 21% nationwide. Without family planning, Jiangsu’s economic prospects would have been very good, but now the economy is sluggish. The entire Yangtze River Delta has a serious population crisis, not as bad as the Pearl River Delta.”
Guangdong’s natural population growth rate in 2019 (8.08 ‰) is 4.74 percentage points higher than the total national natural population growth rate (3.34 ‰), with only 9 percent of the population over 65 years old.
Yi Fuxian introduced that Guangdong currently has the youngest demographic structure and a much higher economic potential than Jiangsu. This is due to the fact that while the country went one-child in the 1980s, Guangdong, under Xi Zhongxun’s rule, opened up to two children, of which the rural two-child policy continued until 1998, and millions more people of Guangdong origin were born.
According to the China Statistical Yearbook, Liaoning had 15.92 percent of its population over 65 in 2019, Jiangsu 15.08 percent and Shandong 15.84 percent, all of which have become deeply aging regions.
Wu Ping, a citizen of Wuxi, Jiangsu, told the station that the birth tide after the “Great Leap Forward” is now ushering in an aging tide, “So many people were born after the three years of natural disasters, and now they are all entering their 60s and beyond, and the aging is definitely evident, entering a concentration of death. In fact, the more civilized the place, the higher the requirements, the more careful to choose a spouse. If it has been a negative growth, it is involved in the rise and fall of the nation.”
Wang Xiaoli, a resident of Changzhou, Jiangsu province, who works in the accounting industry, pointed out that the people cannot afford the high cost of childbirth and education, and that the disproportionate wage income and housing prices and rising prices are important reasons why young people are reluctant to start a family.
“Changzhou wages are not high, (monthly income) generally five or six thousand, seven or eight thousand a lot. Housing prices are higher than income, should be to 18,000 per square meter. The year before last year, including this year, prices have risen a lot, at least 50%. Retirement wages rose 4.5%, which is not enough to cover the price increase. A child from kindergarten training to high school, public schools plus remedial courses, no 500,000 can not, private schools without 700,000 to 800,000 can not go to.”
Central bank experts warn China’s total population could see negative growth after 2025
In 2019, China’s birth rate was 10.48 per 1,000, with 14.65 million births, only about 58 percent of the rate in 1987 (the peak birth year in the last 40 years).
China’s demographic issues are increasingly drawing close attention from all walks of life these days.
Dong Yucheng, president of the Guangdong Institute of Population Development, encourages skipping the three-child policy and fully opening up to independent reproduction. He predicts that the annual number of births during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025) may fall below the 10 million mark; at this rate, China’s total population may experience negative growth within a few years.
The People’s Bank of China released a paper on “Understanding and Responses to China’s Demographic Transition” on the 14th, which also calls for the full liberalization of childbirth and the effective resolution of difficulties encountered by women in pregnancy, childbirth, childcare and schooling, so that women dare to have children, can have children and want to have children.
This involves a series of reforms that will be more difficult than in 1979,” said Yi. The government can’t do anything if they don’t want to have a baby; it can’t do anything if they can’t have a baby. The only thing it can do is to (solve) the problem of not being able to afford (to) have children, which requires real money, but local governments are iron roosters and no one is willing to pay to encourage childbirth. Education, health care and childbirth subsidies all need money, and raising consumption taxes would lead to a decline in economic dynamism.”
Cai Fang, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of China, said bluntly at last week’s Financial Risk Prevention and Control Summit that the next demographic turning point is when China’s total population peaks in 2025 and shows negative growth after that, and that an aging population may bring shocks to the demand side.
Cai Fang stressed that China’s economic growth must be above the world level for the next three decades to become a medium developed country, “but if it returns to the mean by 2050, it will mean that the process of promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will be delayed.”
The final results of China’s seventh national census were originally scheduled to be released in early April, but after days of polishing and no release so far, many governments have recently stressed the need to strengthen public opinion response and data confidentiality.
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