A series of major news stories last week brought me to the subject of this commentary. Biden’s meeting with Kan confirmed that Japan will no longer hesitate and be ambiguous, but will tell Xi Jinping in no uncertain terms that if he wants to use force against Taiwan, Japan will not hesitate to go to war with China again in the 21st century. It was not easy for Japan to make such a decision, because it meant that Japan would bear the most significant loss of China’s madness. I thought the most convincing reason for the strong anti-war forces in Japan would be that Japan’s distinct expression of assertiveness would instead greatly increase the chances that Xi would not dare to go to war.
Will Xi choose not to go to war? I believe this is the core question that he is struggling with internally. Because his fear of war could bring about his own demise if the world sees through it. But Xi Jinping will not fail to see that even if he does not care about “I will not have me,” is he really capable of getting enough people to be cannon fodder? Patriotism” in China today has long been a hot business. This time, the Liaoning made a fool of itself in the South China Sea, which in the end is the inevitable result of using a strong military for personal gain. If the war really starts, the Liaoning may not perform as well as the Zhen Yuan.
Therefore, the question that Xi Jinping cannot forget is whether he has the opportunity to give up the war to give himself and China a way out while he still has some capital. I thought there was still such a chance. Although there are many people who hate and resent Xi Jinping, after all, the vast majority of people would like to avoid the destruction of life, and for this reason, there will be many people, both Chinese and foreigners, who are willing to accept an arrangement that gives Xi Jinping a way out for the sake of peace. Of course, history tells us that the good intentions of the majority often do not turn into reality. At the end of World War II, public opinion against the Communist civil war was strong, and the United States intervened very deeply, but China quickly descended into a bloody civil war that led to regime change.
So what is new about the world and Chinese landscape now compared to the post-World War II period that increases my hope that Xi Jinping will give up fighting the war? The first is that the Taiwan issue is no longer an internal Chinese problem. If Xi were to use force against Taiwan, it would directly impact the entire world order. Because of this, many countries could care less whether Taiwan will become independent, but are completely unable to accept Xi’s use of force to control Taiwan. In other words, the international community will exert maximum political, economic and military pressure on Xi for his own freedom and interests, while supporting all forces within China that might prevent Xi from waging war. This unprecedented international pressure increases the chances of success for some powerful domestic figures who have both channels of communication with Xi Jinping and the ability and access to the outside world to mediate from them. This is an important reason why I read the news about Wen Jiabao differently, and why I see it as a positive sign that Xi does not dare to put Ma to death. Wen and Ma represent such a domestic political force, with the ability to gain the trust of the international community and to win relatively broad domestic support, that Xi does not dare or cannot completely remove their potential political and social influence, increasing the chances of peace.
Xi’s visit to Tsinghua University at this delicate moment also reminds us that the political attitude of the young generation in Chinese society today is probably the most “practical” generation since the May Fourth Movement. They will not fight for the future as passionately as the young people in Hong Kong and Taiwan, but they will not be bewitched by Xi Jinping’s “China Dream” and easily sent to their deaths. They will have many confusions and myths, and will be tempted and misled, but Xi’s oppressive rule and the severe lack of social justice may help them to be prudent and precocious. At the moment of crisis, these experiences may help the young generation at hand, especially the large number of college students, to listen to the voice of reason. This would be good for China to avoid war, and should be good for arranging a way back for Xi Jinping.
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