With the release of China’s “decennial” census statistics just around the corner, experts have commented that it is important to recognize that China’s demographic situation has reversed and that the post-transition demographic decline will be faster than expected, with education and technological advances struggling to compensate for the decline in population. According to Dong Yucheng, president of China’s Guangdong Institute of Population Development, the current trend is that the annual number of births during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025) could fall below the 10 million mark; if this trend continues, China’s total population could experience negative growth within a few years.
According to a Reuters report today, China’s total population may soon experience negative growth on current trends. According to Dong Yucheng, president of the Guangdong Institute of Population Development, the annual number of births during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025) could fall below the 10 million mark, a trend that could lead to negative growth in China’s total population within a few years. The First Financial Daily published an interview with him on Sunday evening and suggested that the sooner the births are liberalized, the better, but while the fertility policy is adjusted, more attention should be paid to the improvement of the supporting fertility policy.
Dong Yuzheng pointed out that the current disagreement is whether to first liberalize the third child or to directly implement independent childbirth. According to Dong Yucheng, “My personal view is that, no longer like ‘squeezing toothpaste’, this year to engage in liberalization of three children, next year to engage in liberalization of four children, which is not necessary. It is to directly implement the independent birth, the faster to liberalize the better. Now the situation is already very serious, and once the population development after the emergence of a major trend of problems, it is difficult to reverse. The sooner you liberalize, the sooner you have the advantage.” He also said that it is crucial to pay attention to both the improvement of the fertility policy and the supporting improvement of the fertility policy.
According to Dong Yu whole, “now young young couple have to go to work, work, do not have enough time and energy to raise children. This is why it is necessary to raise the child care service to a high level. Through efforts to have an institutional strength to be able to free young parents from bringing up their children.” . He pointed out that education should also be reformed to free parents; various training and tuition classes should also be regulated and reduced, otherwise the burden will be too heavy and deviate from the original purpose of quality education; in addition, efforts should be made to implement positive measures including family tax policies and flexible sitting system.
According to Reuters, China is about to publish its “decennial” census statistics, and China’s central bank released a working paper on its WeChat public website last Wednesday saying that it should recognize that China’s demographic situation has reversed and that the population will decay faster than expected after the transition, and that education and technological advances will not be able to compensate for the population decline. The paper also recommends that fertility should be fully liberalized and encouraged, and that women’s difficulties in pregnancy, childbirth, childcare, schooling, etc. should be effectively addressed.
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