Australian Defence Force Commander-in-Chief Angus Campbell said at an event on April 15 that a war in the Taiwan Strait would be “catastrophic”. He noted that Australia will continue to promote dialogue for peace in the Taiwan Strait.
Campbell’s call for all sides to “make every effort to avoid” conflict over Taiwan’s future came weeks after a U.S. diplomat revealed how the U.S. and Australia are planning to respond to the military situation in the region. On Monday, the day 25 PLA military aircraft entered Taiwan’s airspace, former Australian Defense Minister Christopher Pyne suggested in a speech at one of the country’s universities that Taiwan appeared to be the “most likely next trigger” in the Indo-Pacific region and that Australia could be drawn into conflict. Pyne said a war involving China is “something that you and I are likely to have to face in the next five to 10 years.
In response, Campbell noted Thursday evening at the Raisina Dialogue in India that he had “listened with interest to the comments of former Minister Pyne”. But he said he interpreted the comments as “part of a very complex strategic environment puzzle. Campbell said, “Australia’s (attitude) is very clear that the future of China and Taiwan needs to be a future of peaceful resolution.” He said, “Conflict over Taiwan would be a disastrous experience for the people of the region, and that is something we should all try to avoid. There is a path to the future through peaceful dialogue, but it’s a difficult path and it takes work.”
Campbell said conflict must always be “our last resort, and diplomacy our first.” But he admitted that current times mean that “diplomacy and military weight and effort, complementing each other, are extremely important.” Earlier, Michael Goldman, chargé d’affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Australia, said in a podcast recorded last month that the U.S.-Australia strategic plan covers “a range of contingencies …… of which Taiwan is clearly an important component. In response to Goldman’s revelation, Campbell said at the event that militaries conduct “all kinds of planning” but “rarely talk about it.
Campbell said building defense relationships with like-minded nations and understanding other nations’ interests and worldviews is “as much about reducing the likelihood of conflict as it is about responding more effectively to conflict when necessary.” Another goal of such planning, he added, is to “create a more sophisticated conflict calculus in the minds of adversaries about what happens when we don’t act alone, but work together.” In a discussion session following his speech, Campbell was also asked whether Beijing was using “gray area” tactics, i.e., actions that are not part of a military conflict, to pursue its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea.
Campbell replied, “This is not a new tactic, and countries have been seeking to nibble away at arrangements they are uncomfortable with for thousands of years.” He said, “What we’re seeing in the modern era, though, is the opportunity to see scale, ubiquity and immediate action through the cyber realm in a globalized Internet environment.” He noted, “And if there is a will, you can see efforts to effectively change local norms or rules in places like the South China Sea.” Campbell said it is “always challenging for other countries to confront this strategy without at the same time seeking to break through that barrier into open conflict.” Democracies need to put “shields” around their own domestic institutions to protect their sovereignty and clearly express their national interests, he said.
Campbell called for greater transparency about related concerns, saying “sunlight can be an extremely powerful disinfectant” and help inspire “a broader community of interest. He said, “And I don’t think I’m just speaking to one country, I think we’re seeking this more frequently now: because the tendency to abuse the gray space between norms and rules and to erupt into conflict is being very commonly exploited.”
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