April 9, SF Holdings after the quarterly performance forecast thunder, on April 15, Shentong Express released the 2020 performance snapshot and 2021 quarterly performance forecast, the performance of two thunderstorms.
Financial Investment News reporter noted that, from the 2014 market share of the industry’s first “express brother”, to 2016 to compete for the “express listed first stock” throne, and now the market share of the bottom four A-share courier company, Shentong Express has now fallen into The company has fallen behind.
Revenue and net profit fell
In terms of performance, despite the intensification of the price war in 2020, Shentong Express did not escape the fate of both revenue and net profit dropping in the fourth quarter, despite the fact that the net profit turned to profit in the fourth quarter. 97.36%.
From the perspective of operating data, the business volume of Shentong Express in 2020 was 8.818 billion pieces, up 19.6% year-on-year, with a market share of only 10.58%, in a state of continuous decline. And the leading sheep Zhongtong Express last year completed business volume of up to 17 billion pieces, an increase of 40.3% year-on-year.
In fact, this is not the first time the performance of Shentong Express has declined, and its revenue has increased in 2019 without increasing profits. 2019 annual report shows that the company achieved revenue of 23.067 billion yuan, up 35.58% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 1.433 billion yuan, down 30.06% year-on-year. Shentong Express saw its net profit drop sharply despite a significant rise in revenue. At the same time, its gross profit margin has continued to decline for three consecutive years. from 2017 to 2019, Shentong Express’ gross profit margin was 18.45%, 16.24% and 10.48 respectively.
In the first quarter of this year, Shentong Express is expected to continue to lose money. The quarterly forecast shows that the company expects a net loss of 0.7 billion yuan to 100 million yuan in the first quarter, compared with a profit of 58.3613 million yuan in the same period of the previous year, turning from profit to loss. For the loss, Shentong Express attributed it to four factors: first, the company increased the market policy support; second, the “Spring Festival does not close” and related project subsidies spending; third, the business scale in the first quarter is less than expected, resulting in a large increase in the fixed cost of a single ticket; fourth, the new part of the bank borrowing led to an increase in financial costs. In addition to the second factor mentioned above, the reasons for the decline in performance were roughly the same as in 2019.
It is worth noting that the cooperation between Ali and Shentong Express has been in the limelight, and Shentong Express has been wearing the aura of “Ali concept stock” as a result. In September 2020, Ali further increased its indirect stake in Shentong Express, raising its shareholding to 25%. Shentong Express’s actual controller, Chen Dejun, has said that the cooperation with Ali will continue to promote rapid iterative upgrading of Shentong’s information technology. But as things stand, Ali’s direct changes to Shentong Express’ operations are limited. For Shentong Express itself, perhaps the key is to improve production capacity and reduce costs.
No egg under the price war
During the 2020 epidemic, the domestic express industry broke the inherent smoothness of the situation, and under the catfish effect of new entrants, the express industry started a price war and implemented a “price for volume” strategy.
From the operating briefs released by four A-share listed courier companies, including SF Holdings, Yuan Tong Express (10.39+0.78%, clinic shares), Yunda (12.88+0.23%, clinic shares) and Shentong Express, last February, due to the impact of the epidemic, courier companies’ revenue and business volume overall base is small, courier companies in February revenue and business volume have achieved significant growth. Among them, Shunfeng Holdings express business revenue of 10.559 billion yuan, an increase of 11.21%; Yunda shares revenue of 1.515 billion yuan, an increase of 68.9%; Yuan Tong Express revenue of 1.377 billion yuan, an increase of 113.62%; Shentong Express revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, an increase of 126.14%.
In fact, despite the general growth of business income of major courier companies in February last year, but the courier business revenue per ticket continued the previous decline. Among them, Yunda shares single ticket revenue of 2.16 yuan, down 23.94% year-on-year; Yuan Tong Express single ticket revenue of 2.6 yuan, down 5.92% year-on-year; Shentong Express single ticket revenue of 2.72 yuan, down 8.42% year-on-year. In comparison, Shunfeng Holdings has the highest single ticket revenue price this year, at 15.11 yuan, but still down 16.93% year-on-year. Huatai Securities (16.71 +0.06%, diagnosis) analysis that the first quarter courier industry piece volume to maintain strong growth, but fierce market competition led to a relatively weak average price.
The adverse impact of the price war also appeared in the results. The first quarter of this year’s results are expected to substantial losses in addition to Shentong Express, and last week’s mine Shunfeng Holdings. April 9, Shunfeng Holdings released a performance preview that, despite the company’s business growth rate increased significantly from January to February 2021, but the first quarter of this year, the net profit attributable to the mother is expected to lose 900 million yuan to 1.1 billion yuan, from profit to loss. In response, Wang Wei, chairman and general manager of Shunfeng Holdings, said at the 2020 annual general meeting that this loss had exceeded their expectations and attributed the loss to two reasons: first, increased costs and second, increased peer competition. Obviously, both of these factors are unrelated to the price war.
In addition to the slippery performance, Shentong Express also faced a sharp decline in share prices. April 15, Shentong Express continued to fall after a low opening, the share price closed at 8.47 yuan, down 5.68%. Or affected by the decline in performance, Shentong Express shares have fallen 56.56% since 2020.
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