Some industry sources said that the technology gap between TSMC and SMIC is as long as 6 to 9 years.
Lyon Securities analyst Mingxiao Hou (Sebastian Hou) said on April 12 when talking about the technology gap between the mainland and Taiwan that Taiwan chip makers are leading the world and the technology difference between SMIC and TSMC on the mainland is six years, or even nine years.
According to the Hong Kong Economic Times, April 14, Hou Mingxiao believes that Taiwan chip makers are ahead of other international competitors, and it is difficult for companies in other countries to get rid of Taiwan’s supply chain.
For China’s largest chip maker SMIC, the technology gap between it and TSMC is as long as six years, and because of the U.S. sanctions, if SMIC does not obtain the technology needed to strengthen its high-level chip manufacturing capabilities, it will fall further behind TSMC, and the technology gap may be as long as seven to nine years, making it even harder for SMIC to catch up with other chip makers such as TSMC.
According to a report by Free Finance, Lyon Securities has a “buy” rating on TSMC, with a target price of NT$825. Hou Mingxiao said TSMC’s target price is “very achievable” and expects TSMC to maintain its technology leadership position for the next five years, and customers will be highly dependent on it.
In a March 18 report in the Hong Kong Economic Times, U.S. industry research firm IC Insights concluded that the mainland would need to spend at least $150 billion over the next five years to reach TSMC’s technology level, but it may not succeed.
IC Insights said that only TSMC and Samsung are leading in the field of advanced semiconductor logic process technology, and TSMC and Samsung are expected to widen the distance between them and their rivals in advanced process technology.
IC Insights believes that even if the mainland spends $30 billion a year because of U.S. trade sanctions that prohibit the export of some key process equipment to the mainland, so the mainland may not succeed even with funding.
According to the report, by 2022, TSMC and Samsung have been able to start mass production of 3nm chips.
But at present, the mainland is only able to produce 28nm chips.
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