The Chinese Communist Party poses the most significant challenge to U.S. national security, followed by Russia, Iran and North Korea, said an annual threat assessment prepared by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) on Tuesday, April 13.
The 27-page declassified report was released ahead of an April 14-15 hearing of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees. The report notes that the Communist Party and Moscow are “fueling” economic and humanitarian crises, political turmoil and geopolitical rivalries while they engage in so-called “vaccine diplomacy” to expand their respective spheres of influence.
“Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang have demonstrated the ability and intent to advance their interests at the expense of the United States and its allies,” the report said, adding that the Communist Party “challenges the United States in multiple areas – particularly economically, militarily, and technologically” and also will continue to combine its military power with its “economic, technological, and diplomatic influence in order to preserve its own …… This approach comes at the cost of Washington’s (interests).”
The ODNI says the CCP will expand its influence, weaken the United States, attempt to separate relations between Washington and its allies and partners, and promote new international norms that favor the CCP system.
At the same time, the report says, the CCP is trying to “muzzle” U.S. criticism of its human rights abuses and put pressure on political figures Beijing perceives as opposing its interests,” and its conventional and nuclear forces are becoming more capable of putting American lives at risk, predicting that the CCP will try to build more overseas military bases. Communist China and Russia are increasingly cooperating in areas of complementary interests, including defense and economic cooperation.”
“Beijing will condemn what it perceives to be an increased practice of U.S.-Taiwan engagement. We expect friction to increase as Beijing intensifies its propaganda attempt to portray Taipei as internationally isolated and dependent on the mainland for economic prosperity, and as China continues its practice of increasing military activity around the island,” the officials said.
Russia was listed as the second-ranked country in the threat report, but ODNI noted that Moscow does not want a direct conflict with the United States.
Instead, the report said, “We expect Moscow to seek opportunities for pragmatic cooperation with Washington on its own terms.”
“We expect Moscow to intervene in crises where Russian interests are threatened, where a power vacuum can be turned into an opportunity, or where the expected costs of action are low,” the report said, adding that Moscow may deepen its influence in the Caucasus countries as well as eastern Ukraine and Belarus.
ODNI said North Korea will still continue to pursue its nuclear weapons program. The regime, led by Kim Jong Un, “aims to achieve its goal of gaining prestige, security and recognition as a nuclear power through conventional military modernization efforts, nuclear weapons and missile development, foreign engagement, sanctions evasion and cyber capabilities (meaning cyber attacks such as hacking).”
Iran is described in the report as possessing more of a regional threat – rather than a global one.
“While Iran’s deteriorating economy and poor regional reputation pose obstacles to its goals, Tehran will try a range of tools – diplomacy, expansion of its nuclear program, arms sales and acquisitions, and proxy and partner attacks – to advance its objectives. We expect Iran to take risks in the coming year on programs that raise tensions and threaten U.S. and allied interests,” ODNI said.
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