Recently, there are “recruitment difficulties” and “labor shortage” in many places.
A few days ago, the streets of many urban villages near the Guangzhou Zhongda Cloth Market were crowded with garment factory bosses holding sample clothes and recruitment signs, and even a thousand-meter-long line was formed, waiting to be “selected” by workers.
Some recruiting bosses told reporters that garment workers are in short supply now, and although the daily salary is nearly 20% higher than previous years, they still can’t recruit a few people after standing for several days.
Many people are complaining that young people prefer the service industry to the manufacturing industry, and some people criticize young people for their love of face. Some bosses are also actively trying to find ways to improve the factory environment and raise wages. However, it does not seem to help, not very useful.
So, what is the problem? What kind of crisis will emerge in the future? What will be the impact on the Chinese economy?
1
What makes German workers so Buddhist?
Yes, young people do not want to do manufacturing industry has the problem of low salary, a considerable part of the manufacturing industry wages and prices, housing prices, compared to, indeed, still on the low side. A famous entrepreneur said: “Why do employees resign? Two reasons, the money is not given enough, the heart aggravated. The problem of money is very critical.
In contrast, the income of German workers is very good, some German workers’ salaries are higher than civil servants and professors, since the income is high, of course, there is no worry about recruiting people. So let’s follow this result retrospectively and see why Germany, with only 80 million people, can actually give birth to 2,300 world famous brands?
In the elementary school, German children have realized the diversion, which of course has advantages and disadvantages, those who are suitable for university go to arts and science schools, and those who are suitable for technical work enter the other two kinds of schools, but this is only a different division of labor, it does not mean the success or failure of life and income afterwards.
Because there is mobility between schools, simply put, even if a child goes to a vocational prep school, he or she still has the opportunity to go on to a university.
There are two types of universities in Germany, the general university as we know it, and the Fachhochschule (FH for short), the university of applied sciences.
The former is more theoretical, while the latter places more emphasis on practical knowledge and integration with industry. Moreover, students graduating from the Fachhochschule seem to have an easier time finding jobs, and some of them reach senior positions in large companies.
The vast majority of German workers and civil servants, ordinary white-collar workers face little difference in educational resources (except for those who deliberately seek high-quality resources and private schools), there are no school districts in Germany, and everyone can enjoy a fair public education even if they rent a room, because there is little difference in public education resources across the country, especially in the compulsory education stage.
Therefore, in the school system, the Germans are not too anxious and not too involute, relatively Buddhist.
Because individuals look to the future, to go to the factory as a worker is also quite good, can afford to buy or rent a room, after the age of 35, as long as not too make can complete the work task, qualified workers can probably do a lifetime, that will work without fear.
In terms of welfare system, health care and education are free, and the average German citizen works 187 days a year, four days a week, with an average working time of seven hours a day, and enjoys six weeks of paid vacation every year.
When workers do not worry about their houses, education and health care, or low wages, what more can they ask for?
German workers do not have any “ambition”, do not want to start a business, nor do they want to go to the delivery, the former is risky, the latter comes and goes in the wind and rain, may not be as much as working in the factory to earn more, so work hard to improve on it, this is a rational choice.
Germany has many well-known manufacturing brands, almost every field, you can find a top brand is from Germany, such as Siemens, Porsche, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, etc. are German brands.
Why is Germany’s industry strong? One reason: there is a strong system to provide workers with at least medium living conditions, workers can be very relieved, rather than always thinking about getting rich, or get drunk today, and go to sleep after delivery.
Former German President Herzog once said, “To keep the economy competitive, Germany needs not more PhDs, but more (industrial) technicians.”
The Germans are pragmatic and do not need so many PhDs who send out false-headed papers, and respect the value of workers more, which is a spiritual satisfaction and self-worth for them.
Germans are very conservative, do not engage in financial derivatives, do not engage in land finance, honestly do a good job in manufacturing to make money around the world, this is the German model.
This is not a single enterprise effort to complete the system construction, need more forces, including education, medical, civil affairs, housing and construction and other departments in a top-level design to operate effectively and fill in the gaps.
Now, China’s manufacturing industry is starting to lack people, and if we don’t act quickly, what will be the result? Look at Japan.
2
Low population and falling consumption, factories can’t recruit people
Back in 2019, statistics from the Japanese research firm Imperial Data Bank showed that the number of closures, shutdowns and dissolutions is accelerating as Japan’s century-old stores are lacking successors due to the increasing ageing of fewer children.
In 2018, the number of 100-year-old stores that closed down reached 465, setting a new record high in the past 20 years.
The aging of young children is just one reason why many young people do not want to inherit the family business, even if the family business is profitable: in terms of Japanese companies that closed in 2018, 80% of them are still profitable, but no one wants to work anymore ……
Figures from Japan’s Small and Medium Business Agency show that by 2025, there will be around 2.45 million SME owners over the age of 70, half of whom have yet to identify a successor.
China and Japan are not exactly the same, but there are two things that are very similar to Japan: the aging of fewer children and the reluctance of young people to enter traditional industries.
Some Japanese young people are even more extreme, not to mention factories, even the traditional service industry is not interested, preferring to lie at home to do “otaku” “otaku”, low desire society means, not interested in anything.
A large part of China’s manufacturing enterprises can not recruit enough workers, what should we do in the future? What’s worse is that China’s birth rate is also falling wildly, just like Japan’s.
In 2020, China will register only 10.03 million newborns, more than 4 million fewer than in 2019. with a birth rate of only 10.48% in 2019, it has already reached its lowest value since 2000, and even worse in 2020 ……
The marriage rate of Chinese people has already declined since 2013, with the number of registered marriage pairs continuing to fall from a record high of 13.47 million to 8.13 million from 2013-2020.
A strong manufacturing industry needs the support of people, and now people are rapidly decreasing, which means: consumption is directly decreasing, which can already be seen from the slowdown of consumption growth in many cities, and means that in the future it will be more difficult for Chinese companies to recruit people, and will face the same situation as Japanese companies.
How do the Germans do it? The German people can enjoy a maternity policy: the German government provides up to three years of maternity leave for women who give birth, so that mothers have enough time to grow up with their children.
In order to reduce the cost of childcare, the German government has long since introduced a system of full exemption from education costs other than kindergarten. During maternity leave, husbands can apply for paternity leave, during which both parents receive about 70% of their original salary. There is also a monthly maternity allowance.
Even so, German women are reluctant to have children because they are increasingly involved in social work in modern society, and having children does affect women’s job promotion and employment.
3
The country has to attract immigrants if the nation does not have children
German Federal Statistical Office data show that the German population continued to grow between 2011-2019. Among them, the second half of 2015 due to the impact of migration recorded the strongest increase in the past 10 years, an increase of 717,000 people, an increase of 0.9%. Germany is second only to Russia in terms of population in the entire European region.
Simply put, although Germans have a low fertility rate, they do not need to worry about the labor force, as many people from developing countries have been actively trying to run to Germany, which is again slightly further away from aging. Germany is the second largest immigration country in the world, which is the institutional advantage – leeks from all over the world are running to Germany.
So how to solve the problem of lack of people in manufacturing, that is, three roads: increase welfare, so that the total income, happiness and access of workers at least in the median in society, or do not blame young people run to Internet companies and services.
Treating people as individuals, not as leeks and machines, is not just a matter for business owners; it’s okay not to change and wait for the backlash.
Let women dare to have children, stimulate them with system, material and money to have children, should we learn from Germany? Not to learn, then look at Japan and South Korea, some schools began to close.
Then there is the matter of immigration or increasing the foreign workforce, which is more complicated and can be put aside for a while.
In fact, Japan is already anxious, and the “Basic Policy for Economic and Financial Operations” released in June 2018 shows that Japan will receive more than 500,000 new foreign workers around 2025.
Japan is trying to attract foreign gold-collar, white-collar, blue-collar and foreign students, and finally, it has made a big move by directly revising the definition of old age: 65 years old is not counted, but 75 years old.
Finally, let me emphasize: the lack of people in the manufacturing industry is not simply a matter of high or low wages, but a matter of iterative upgrading of the entire system, and there is no time to lose, it is very urgent!
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