Angela Merkel is handing over the reins, but her party may not be able to govern after the election Photo: Retrieved from Twitter
German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel will be relieved of her 16-year-long burden after this September’s election, but the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which she leads, is polling poorly and there are still uncertainties about whether it can form a ruling coalition.
According to a report by German pollster Forsa, the CDU, which once enjoyed 40 percent support at this time last year, was down to 27 percent support at the end of last month. The German Green Party (Bündnis90/Die Grünen), with 23% support, is catching up. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has repeatedly formed grand coalition governments with the CDU, is the third largest party with 15% support. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the small center party Free Democratic Party (FDP) each have 10%. The leftist party (die Linke) got 7%.
The other polls have different figures, but they are not very different.
If these polling figures do translate into votes, there could be many variables in order to achieve the 50% threshold for forming a governing coalition.
The CDU’s recent lack of prevention and vaccine scandal not only hurt the party’s image, but also cost it a lot in the two state elections in mid-March. This has led to a weakening of the political base of incumbent leader Armin Laschet and an open conflict between him and Angela Merkel’s federal government over how to manage the outbreak.
Whether Laschet can lead the CDU in the general election is still a big question. His popularity rating is only 37 percent, while his sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU) leader Markus Soeder, has 52 percent. In the past, there have been two instances where the CSU leader has replaced the CDU leader at the head of the party.
The increasingly powerful Greens will be the “king makers”, even if they do not necessarily lead the cabinet after the election. They could choose to form a coalition government with the CDU/CSU, or they could join forces with the SPD, the Left Party and the Liberal Democrats.
The Greens were in coalition with the Social Democrats from 1998 to 2005 and have been in power in Baden-Württemberg for almost a decade.
The SPD, on the other hand, has been censured and even reviled by many of its traditional supporters for repeatedly forming grand coalition governments with its longtime rival, the CDU. If the election goes well this September, it may be possible to dominate a new coalition government. If the result of the vote is the same as losing to the Greens in the polls, it is possible that the Greens will dominate the government.
In any case, there is a very high probability that the Greens will join the coalition government after September this year. It may affect Germany’s policy toward China. The Greens do not buy Merkel’s “Wandel durch Handel” (trade for change) China policy, arguing that while it is necessary to cooperate with China on climate issues, for example, the link between trade and human rights should not be avoided. The Greens, for example, have advocated in their draft platform that goods made with forced labor in Xinjiang be banned from the German market.
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