Japan faces the same dilemma as many other countries, with deep economic ties to mainland China and growing unease about the Chinese Communist Party’s ambitions for global expansion. This has led Japan to seek close ties with allies such as the United States for a long time, but to keep its criticism of the CCP relatively low key.
However, international relations experts say that Japan needs to adjust its strategy toward China and more actively exercise its leadership role as a regional power to respond more aggressively to the CCP’s provocations and maintain regional peace and stability.
Asei Ito, associate professor at the University of Tokyo’s Institute of Social Sciences, explained that after Shinzo Ampere began his second term in 2012, the Japanese government advanced a dual strategy of hedging and cooperating with China in a moderate geopolitical environment, but that China’s geopolitical and economic influence has now fundamentally changed.
Ito Asei told Voice of America, “For Japan, the risks from the CCP are shifting from the bilateral political risks of the past to the broader risks of great power competition and geopolitical risks today.”
In an analysis, he also wrote: “The Communist Party’s intervention in the market and weaponization of economic dependence under its more centralized political system are real risks for Japanese companies as well as Western companies.”
As the only G-7 country not to participate in last month’s unified sanctions against Chinese officials over the situation in Xinjiang, the Japanese government is once again trying to avoid a head-on confrontation that could damage economic relations with China, but this does not seem to be giving Japanese business the advantage it thought it would, and Japanese brands are still caught up in the wave of boycotts by Chinese nationalists.
Human rights issues fester
Despite concerns about geopolitical risks, attitudes toward the Chinese Communist Party are rapidly shifting within Japan, promising to drive Japan’s willingness to speak out on sanctions against Chinese human rights abuses.
In recent years, the Japanese public has become more assertive in its views of China. According to a study by pollster Pew Research Center, 86 percent of Japanese surveyed have a negative view of China, driven largely by the Xinjiang and Hong Kong issues and territorial disputes.
Japanese lawmakers have also called for punishing the Chinese Communist Party for human rights abuses. “It is shameful that Japan is seen as a country that pretends to be blind to what is happening,” former Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani was quoted as saying by Bloomberg last month. Gen Nakatani is co-chairman of a cross-party group of lawmakers on China policy in the Japanese House of Representatives.
In the face of public pressure, the Japanese government’s tone toward China has hardened in some quarters. On Monday, in a call with Chinese Communist Party Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimichi Motegi called on China to take action to improve the human rights situation of the Uighurs and to end its crackdown on Hong Kong.
Japan’s appeal appears to have stirred a sensitive nerve in Beijing. In a rare move, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued two statements on the call between Wang Yi and Toshimichi Mogi. One of the statements hinted at U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent efforts to coordinate strategy with allies toward China, warning Tokyo to avoid following Washington’s lead in sanctioning Beijing over human rights abuses.
Ichiro Inoue, a professor at the Institute for Policy Studies at Kansai Gakuin University in Japan, argued that China is unlikely to change its foreign policy or return to cooperation in the near future as Xi is likely to move toward a third term after his second term ends in late 2022.
“During Xi’s first and second terms, the Chinese Communist Party has clearly maintained a tough stance on sovereignty-related issues such as Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Taiwan, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, without compromising in any way,” Ichiro Inoue said Monday at an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. think tank. “The Chinese Communist Party does not completely repudiate or try to overthrow today’s liberal international order. However, the Chinese Communist Party is gradually aiming to change the current international order to its own advantage.”
Ichiro Inoue said that as the Chinese Communist Party has launched a “double-cycle” strategy to break away from global economic dependence and try to build a power that can resist global economic pressures, the challenges are more similar among like-minded democracies and there is reason to stand firm to protect the liberal international order.
He noted that Japan and the United States are beginning to share common concerns about ideological competition with the Chinese Communist Party, as the recent U.S.-Japan joint statement shows.
In mid-March, the U.S. and Japanese foreign and defense ministers met in Tokyo for a “U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee” (2+2) meeting. The joint statement issued by the two sides identified China as a common challenge and expressed “grave concern” about Beijing’s human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, as well as maritime power.
Bringing the U.S.-Japan alliance closer
In the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, there were concerns in Japanese political circles about whether the new administration would continue its hard-line stance toward China, and the Biden administration’s return to the Indo-Pacific strategy, as well as the meetings and statements above, demonstrate Washington’s support for Tokyo and could further advance Japan as a strong partner for the United States in countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Next, President Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga at the White House on April 16, the first visit by a foreign leader since Biden took office, reflecting the importance of Japan in the increasingly tense U.S.-China rivalry.
I expect Biden and Kan to signal unity on a range of China-related issues,” David A. Welch, a professor of political science at the University of Waterloo’s School of International Affairs, told the Voice of America. The gist will be clear that there is a new Cold War in East Asia and that the United States and Japan are firm partners on one side.”
Japanese media reports indicate that the U.S. and Japan are expected to announce enhanced cooperation in the area of Asian security during the meeting, particularly involving support for Japan in territorial disputes and the importance of stabilizing the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Another Japanese media report said that the foreign ministers of Japan and Germany and the defense minister will hold an online dialogue during Kan’s visit to Washington. Analysis says Tokyo is seeking support from more Democratic Alliance countries to recognize Japan’s sovereignty claims.
China has shown increasingly assertive aggression in recent months in nearby disputed waters in the face of signs that Japan plans to play a more assertive role in the Indo-Pacific region.
In February, the Communist Party passed a maritime police law authorizing Chinese maritime police to use lethal force against foreign vessels in waters over which China claims sovereignty, and Chinese ships have repeatedly sailed into the disputed waters since then. Japan’s Defense Ministry said Sunday (April 4) that the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning, accompanied by five frigates, sailed through the Miyako Strait toward the Pacific Ocean, the first time it has passed through the area since last April.
An equally important question is the extent to which Japan is willing to intervene if tensions in the Taiwan Strait increase, which would reflect Japan’s determination to maintain regional security. Japan has been relatively restrained on the Taiwan issue, but at the recent U.S.-Japan 2+2 meeting specifically emphasized “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Ryo Sahashi, an associate professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo’s Institute of Advanced Asian Studies, told VOA that the U.S. has high hopes for Japan in the event of an emergency in Taiwan. If the meeting between the U.S. and Japanese leaders reaches an agreement on the Taiwan Strait issue, it would mean the first time in half a century that U.S. and Japanese leaders have confronted the Taiwan issue head-on.
He said, “The challenge for Japan is whether domestic public opinion really supports Japan as a co-leader in the event of a Taiwan emergency, but at this stage there is at least enough support for a tough diplomatic stance on Taiwan to strengthen deterrence against the Chinese Communist Party in peacetime.”
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