While Chinese Communist Party military aircraft continue to harass Taiwan, the Liaoning aircraft carrier formation has recently stepped up drills in the Taiwan Strait, making the atmosphere in the Taiwan Strait tense. U.S. experts warn that a Chinese Communist war against Taiwan could break out in the next three years, and that the current harassing incursions are preparations for an attack on Taiwan.
The Chinese Communist Party’s threat to Taiwan is escalating. According to Taiwan statistics, last year, Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone about 380 times, the highest number since 1996. So far this year, there have been almost daily incursions of Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
The Taiwan Coast Guard announced on April 1 that Chinese communist drones have been in the airspace near Taiwan’s Dongsha Island, located in the northern South China Sea, flying around the island in recent days, not ruling out that they are on a reconnaissance mission.
In addition, the Chinese Communist Party’s Liaoning aircraft carrier formation began drills in the waters around Taiwan on April 4. The Chinese military claims that such exercises will become a regular occurrence.
John Mills, former director of cybersecurity policy, strategy and international affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense, predicted that these exercises by the Communist military could culminate in large-scale drills within the next two years.
He warned that the Chinese Communist Party is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan and that Beijing’s harassing invasion is just one part of these exercises.
Mills told the Epoch Times that these exercises would be necessary if the Chinese Communist Party military were to carry out a forced landing on Taiwan, given the complexity of an amphibious landing operation. He reminded the Taiwanese authorities that the Chinese Communist Party’s amphibious assault may also involve swarms of Chinese Communist militia ships.
Mills believes that a war against Taiwan could occur within the next three years. He gave his prediction much earlier than that of Philip Davidson, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Davidson predicted in early March that the Chinese Communist Party could attack Taiwan within six years.
John Aquilino, who will succeed Davidson as the new commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned at his nomination hearing in March that the threat of a Communist invasion of Taiwan “could come much sooner than most people expect.
Former national security adviser H.R. McMaster argued that the period beginning in 2022 is the “most dangerous” time for Taiwan, when a power struggle within the Communist Party will determine whether Xi Jinping will be re-elected.
Mills analyzed that Xi could divert attention from internal issues such as the economic crisis by attacking Taiwan. “If they don’t do it in 10 years, I think (Communist Party leader) Xi Jinping could be removed from office. I think even six years is too long.”
He also said Beijing’s ambitions for Taiwan stem largely from its desire to get its hands on Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Taiwan is home to the world’s largest foundry chipmaker, TSMC, which uses tiny chips in everything from cell phones to missiles.
The Chinese Communist Party relies heavily on foreign chips, importing $380 billion worth of chips in 2020, or about 18 percent of its total imports, according to Bloomberg. The Trump administration has imposed a series of sanctions on Chinese technology companies, making it difficult for the Communist Party to obtain high-tech products such as chips.
The Chinese Communist Party has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the “Great Leap Forward in Chips”, but it has failed miserably, leaving behind a pile of bad projects. Since the Biden administration took office, Beijing has tried to get Washington to reverse the Trump administration’s China policy, and its recent provocations against Taiwan are seen as a test for the Biden administration.
Faced with the escalating military threat from the Chinese Communist Party, Mills said the Biden administration should adopt an unambiguous deterrence strategy against the Chinese Communist Party. He argued that the United States should increase its naval and air force military presence around Taiwan and in the East and South China seas.
On March 26, Taiwan and the U.S. signed a memorandum of cooperation on maritime patrols, in which the two sides will cooperate to respond to possible crises in the Indo-Pacific region and work together to maintain the freedom and openness of the region.
At the same time, Taiwan is actively preparing for any attack from Beijing. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced on April 7 that it will hold its annual “Han-Guang Exercise” in late April and mid-July to conduct a live military exercise simulating a communist attack on Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Wu Chiu-sup said at a press conference that day that if the Chinese Communist Party attacked, Taiwan would fight to the last minute.
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