The U.S.-Japan alliance held a joint exercise in the East China Sea on March 29 to strengthen deterrence against the Chinese Communist Party. (Photo credit: U.S. 7th Fleet Command)
Today’s international situation is somewhat similar to that before World War II (not before World War I). As we enter 2021, the Chinese Communist Party has launched a new round of “war wolf diplomacy”; at the same time, the military is also aggressive, showing off its muscles in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea, and engaging in “gray conflicts. To name a few.
–Escalating military bullying against Taiwan. On top of more than 380 sorties of warplanes in the Taiwan Strait in 2020 (almost one sortie a day), it continues to increase. In particular, on March 26, 20 sorties of Chinese Communist Party military aircraft entered the airspace southwest of Taiwan for patrol, setting a brand new record for 2021.
–The situation in the Diaoyu Islands heated up again, and on March 23, public information from the CCP’s Marine Police Bureau showed that a fleet of 2502 ships (4) of the Marine Police were on patrol in the Diaoyu Islands. This is the third time since 2021 that such information has been officially announced by the CCP. Previously, on February 20 and January 13, the Marine Police 2302 fleet and the Marine Police 1401 fleet went on a patrol to the Diaoyu Islands respectively.
–More than 220 Chinese fishing boats have gathered at Whitsun Reef (a disputed area between China and the Philippines) since March 7. On March 21, the Philippine defense secretary urged more than 200 Chinese vessels to leave immediately, and the foreign minister sent a diplomatic protest to Beijing. On March 28, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte spoke with the Chinese ambassador. On March 31, the U.S. and Philippine national security advisors spoke by phone to discuss the actions of the Chinese Communist Party in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.
These actions by the CCP are not individual cases, but reflect the international situation judgment and global expansion ambitions of the CCP authorities. Specifically, first, the Chinese and U.S. power contrast is tilting toward the CCP, with the U.S. in decline and the CCP on the rise, and the tipping point will come in the next few years; second, the CCP’s “military reform” has been largely completed, and the army is basically mechanized and can “bend the curve” in terms of informationization and intelligent integration. Third, the development of “civil-military integration”, the shipbuilding industry is the only country that can build two aircraft carriers at the same time as the United States, and has strong military and economic potential; fourth, a number of military laws have been and will be introduced to highlight the will to war. Fourth, a number of military laws have been and will be introduced to highlight the will to war, such as the amendment to the National Defense Law passed on December 26, 2020, which adds the concepts of “secession” and “development interests” to the grounds for mobilizing troops (without defining their meaning), meaning that “For example, the Maritime Police Law, passed on January 22, 2021 and effective on February 1, authorizes the maritime police to fire on foreign vessels in “territorial waters under Chinese jurisdiction. “This will put tremendous pressure on Japan and many ASEAN countries that have territorial disputes with the CCP.
Thus, the CCP’s military expansion actions described earlier in this paper reflect the CCP’s reliance on military means and its aggressive, offensive, and expansionist posture in the international arena, posing a serious threat and unprecedented challenge to the neighborhood, the Asia-Pacific, the Indo-Pacific, and international peace. In this situation, it is inevitable that the United States, Taiwan, neighboring countries, NATO, and U.S. allies will remain highly vigilant and take action.
In response to the Communist Party’s military expansion, each country is strengthening its armaments in a targeted manner, and a vast military alliance or military cooperation, centered on the United States, is now rapidly unfolding. To name a few.
First, the overall enhancement of U.S.-Taiwan relations, with military cooperation as the focus. The latest development is the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Taiwan on March 25 to establish a Maritime Patrol Working Group to coordinate bilateral policies. Witnesses were Sung Kim, Acting Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, and Ann Castiglione-Cataldo, Director of International Affairs at the U.S. Coast Guard. Reuters noted that the signing of the memorandum represents a move by the new U.S. administration to assure Taiwan of its rock-solid commitment. According to Reuters, Taiwan is upgrading its coastal military equipment and beefing up its new ships so they can be drafted into naval service in case of war, amid a steady stream of Chinese fishing and sand dredging vessels entering Taiwan-controlled waters.
Second, on the same day, March 23, the Japanese newspaper Okinawa Times reported that Japan’s Land Self-Defense Force plans to conduct island emergency drills from September to November. This will be the largest exercise in the history of the Japanese Self-Defense Force. The last nationwide exercise in Japan was 28 years ago. The report also said that the exercise may be in response to the frequent activities of the Chinese Communist Party in the waters of the Diaoyu Islands.
Third, to strengthen the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-South Korea military alliance. In the evening of March 30, the White House announced that National Security Adviser Sullivan would meet with the heads of national security affairs of Japan and South Korea on April 2 to discuss the security situation on the Korean Peninsula (naturally, the Chinese Communist Party cannot escape from the situation).
In mid-April, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga visited the United States, and he will be the first foreign leader President Biden will meet face-to-face. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun broke the news that the two sides will issue a joint statement that will “very rarely” include a reference to so-called “stability in the Taiwan Strait,” since the last time a U.S.-Japanese summit statement included a reference to Taiwan was back in 1969, when then Japanese Prime Minister Eisaku Sato and then U.S. President Richard Nixon mentioned in a statement that “Taiwan’s security is vital to Japan’s security.
However, if the U.S. were to transform the bilateral military alliance between the U.S., Japan and South Korea into a trilateral military alliance between the U.S., Japan and South Korea, it would be more difficult. First, the contradictions between Japan and South Korea are deep (for example, the 2019 Japan-South Korea trade war and Japan’s sanctions against South Korea); second, the Chinese Communist Party’s strong support for South Korea (for example, the joint statement of the March 18 “2+2” talks between the U.S. and South Korean foreign ministers and defense ministers did not mention the Chinese Communist Party, indicating Seoul’s reluctance to choose sides; this is in stark contrast to Japan).
Fourth, the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia “quadripartite talks” have been upgraded from ministerial to summit level (the first summit was held on March 12), with increasingly obvious military implications.
In November 2020, Australia participated in the four countries’ joint military exercises again after an absence of 13 years. From April 5 to 7 this year, members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), including the United States, Japan, Australia and India, will meet with France for the first time in the Indo-Pacific region for joint exercises and training (the “Labyrinth” joint military exercise in the Bay of Bengal). Compared with previous years, the special feature of this military exercise is the formal joining of India. According to several Indian media reports, the joint military exercises “target” the Chinese Communist Party, aiming to counter its growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. After the exercise, the Indian and Australian foreign ministers will also hold a trilateral meeting with the French foreign minister.
The development of quadrilateral military cooperation comes at a time when the four countries have made several significant and substantial advances in bilateral military cooperation. For example, on March 31, Australia announced that it would work closely with the United States to begin building its own missiles to strengthen its defense capabilities. The Voice of America reported that “Australia’s decision comes at a time of deteriorating relations with China and growing unease in the Pacific about the growing ambitions and military capabilities of the Communist countries. In addition, U.S. diplomats in Canberra recently said that the U.S. and Australia are discussing how to cooperate in response to a range of military contingencies, including the outbreak of war in the Taiwan Strait, and that the U.S. has great respect for Australia’s courageous efforts to resist Chinese communist coercion.
However, the key to whether the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia “quadripartite talks” can evolve into an Indo-Pacific version of NATO is India. India seems to have fallen into the strategic trap of the Chinese Communist Party (see my article “India’s Dilemma and India-US Alliance Options”), and the Chinese Communist Party is pulling India closer, for example, by reaching an agreement to withdraw its troops from the disputed border lake area, which was completed in February. In a word, without India’s awakening there would be no Indo-Pacific version of NATO.
Fifth, NATO is wary of the Chinese Communist threat, and some NATO members have deliberately strengthened their military presence in the Indo-Pacific.
On March 23, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made several references to the Chinese Communist challenge when attending a forum with visiting U.S. Secretary of State John Blinken. In fact, the NATO summit concluded in London back on December 4, 2019, with the release of a declaration that included the first mention of the Chinese (communist) state.
Although, in the current state of affairs, it is unlikely that NATO as a whole will engage in a direct military confrontation with the CCP, this does not preclude some NATO members from strengthening their military presence in the Indo-Pacific.
For example, on March 31, Canada’s Department of National Defence said that its frigate USS Calgary sailed through the South China Sea on March 29 and 30 from Brunei to Vietnam.
For example, the military movements of Britain, France and Germany in the Asia-Pacific. Recently, the French defense minister announced that two French Navy ships completed patrols in the South China Sea. In addition to sending a patrol ship, France revealed on Feb. 8 that it had dispatched a nuclear-powered attack submarine in the South China Sea. An Asian security official said, “It is a very unusual move to disclose the highly classified whereabouts of a nuclear submarine.” German officials said they plan to send warships to Asia this August, and that they will pass through the South China Sea on their return voyage, but will not enter the 12 nautical miles of disputed waters. Britain has announced that it will send the aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth to the South China Sea within the year.
In addition, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force announced on its official website that it conducted a joint training with the Spanish Navy in the waters around Guam on February 26. Japan’s Kyodo News commented on this: “Considering the maritime activities of the Chinese (Communist) countries, the naval forces of Britain, France and Germany have increased their attention to the Pacific Ocean and have sent their ships. According to the analysis, Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force intends to expand the scope of enhanced cooperation thus holding the Chinese (Communist) countries in check.”
In short, a military encirclement against the CCP is unfolding; the CCP’s war-wolf diplomacy and military expansion are decisive factors in how quickly this military encirclement is formed and how it is set.
In the face of this vast network of military cooperation (which is not fully discussed in this article, for example, U.S. military movements in Central Asia, which are a direct deterrent to the CCP), the CCP’s power is really limited. To borrow the words of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, “If you are worried about the CCP, the CCP will soon be the largest economy in the world, but the NATO allies together, we have 50 percent of the world’s economy and half of the world’s military power. Together, we can really mobilize to form a huge amount of innovation and technology to deal with the impact and challenges of the rise of the Chinese (Communist) countries.”
However, one point in particular should be noted that the Chinese Communist Party is as deluded and as evil and crazy as it has ever been. Former U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo, for one, said that the Chinese Communist Party is more of a threat than the Soviet Union. For example, the Soviet Union, no matter what, sat down with the United States and signed a series of arms control agreements; during the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union also developed the “iron rule of the Cold War” – no direct war between the two countries, because it would most likely trigger a nuclear war. However, China has not only failed to reach any arms control agreements with the United States, but has also refused to participate in the “trilateral arms control talks between China, the United States and Russia” and is developing its military power, especially its strategic military power, with impunity. No assessment of the dangers of the CCP can be overstated.
Although the Communist Party is far less powerful than the United States at present and in the foreseeable future, the Communist Party’s use of its madness and evil as a lethal weapon is the most difficult for the United States and the international community to deal with and the most important to plan against. As long as the Chinese Communist Party is not dismantled, the world is in danger.
Recent Comments