Anti-Chinese protests in Kazakhstan, China’s “One Belt, One Road” future unpredictable

People in Kazakhstan hold a protest demonstration in Almaty. (Feb. 28, 2021)

Kazakhstan is a key country for the Chinese Communist Party’s diplomatic push in Central Asia. The CCP even specifically chose Kazakhstan to debut its Belt and Road Initiative a few years ago. But Kazakhstan has also become one of the most anti-Communist countries in Central Asia. Anti-communist protests have been ongoing in the region.

Protests against the expansion of the Chinese Communist Party criticize officials for bribery and corruption

Last Saturday (March 27), new anti-communist protests broke out in Kazakhstan. In the square in front of the Kazakh National Academy of Sciences in Almaty, the former capital and first city, some 200 to 300 people held a rally to protest against the expansion of the Communist Party and Chinese immigration.

Other demands of the protest included a protest against CCP threats and a call for the authorities to ban the sale and lease of all types of land, including agricultural arable land, to China. The authorities were called upon to ban the relocation of more than 50 factories from China to Kazakhstan and to stop borrowing from China, among other things. The issue of Xinjiang was also raised.

The Chinese Communist Party agreed with Kazakhstan years ago to invest and build more than 50 factories in Kazakhstan in joint ventures. This issue has been on the minds of Kazakh society in recent years. Local critics accuse the Chinese Communist Party of intentionally moving environmentally polluting production companies to Kazakhstan. In addition, people have criticized the lack of transparency of the deals and the alleged corruption of Kazakh officials, among other things.

Although Saturday’s rally was approved by the authorities, the organizer of the rally, well-known Kazakh journalist Mamai, still criticized the authorities for deliberately making it difficult and obstructing the rally, and many participants were arrested. Internet signals were cut off in and around the rally.

The rally was organized by two Kazakh opposition forces. One is the “Kazakh Democratic Party”, which was formed by journalist Mamai last year, and the other is the “Kazakh Democratic Alternative”. “The Kazakh Democratic Alternative is currently banned by the authorities, and its leader and founder Ablyazov is now in exile in France. Ablyazov, currently a blogger, was a Kazakh plutocrat before he went into exile and held senior government positions, including that of a minister. Ablyazov and his supporters have been fierce critics of the current Kazakh regime and the Chinese Communist threat, often organizing protests in Kazakhstan, including against the Chinese Communist Party.

Anti-communist protests have continued for years

Saturday’s protest rally was only the latest in a long line of anti-Communist protests that have continued in recent years in Kazakhstan. The largest and most influential anti-Communist protest took place in 2016. That protest swept through many parts of the country, with protesters unhappy about laws that perpetuate the leasing of agricultural land to foreigners, including Chinese. Authorities were forced to call off and freeze the law under pressure from the protests.

Anti-communist protests also erupted in many cities across the country, including the capital and Almaty, on the eve of Kazakh President Mikhail Tokaev’s visit to China in the fall of 2019. Demonstrators called on Tokaev not to go to China, not to receive loans from the CCP and that Kazakhstan should attract Western investment instead of Chinese investment.

Some Kazakh media reporters said that anti-CCP protests have not only been a regular occurrence in recent years, but almost every year, and that anti-CCP slogans and slogans can be seen and heard even during some other non-China related protests.

The sensitive issue of Xinjiang is even more concerned by the local community

Many of the anti-Communist protests focused on Xinjiang issues, some of which were held near the Chinese embassy and consulate in Kazakhstan. Protesters demanded the release of their relatives in Xinjiang and sometimes clashed with Kazakh police outside the Chinese embassy and consulate. Kazakhstan has a large Uighur population in Central Asia. Some ethnic Kazakhs from Xinjiang have returned to settle in Kazakhstan in recent years.

Kazakh society’s interest in the issue of Xinjiang and some of the related protests were most prominent in 2017-2018. The issue of Xinjiang is also very sensitive in Kazakh-Chinese relations. Although Kazakh officials have generally kept a low profile or even remained silent on the issue, some ethnic Kazakhs who have settled in Kazakhstan from Xinjiang continue to give frequent interviews to some media and human rights advocates about their persecution in Xinjiang, where they are referred to in the local media as refugees from Xinjiang.

A Kazakh court ruled in January that six ethnic Kazakhs who had illegally crossed the border from Xinjiang into Kazakhstan should be denied repatriation to China. Kazakh authorities last year granted a year-long refugee status to four Kazakhs from Xinjiang who claimed persecution. Local human rights activists believe this move by the authorities sends a particularly concerning signal because it amounts to an acknowledgement of what happened to some Kazakhs in Xinjiang.

Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesman Kari Bai said in March that his country was negotiating with China over the issue of Kazakh refugees in Xinjiang. But he admitted that the negotiations are very difficult and are the most difficult topic in the relationship.

Key Central Asian country China cannot do without Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is a key stop in the Chinese Communist Party’s drive to promote diplomacy in Central Asia, and it was in Kazakhstan that the Communist Party first proposed the Belt and Road Initiative when Xi Jinping visited the country in 2013. Russian scholar of Central Asia Grozin said that China cannot do without Kazakhstan in any case, especially in the Belt and Road project.

Grozin: “Kazakhstan is in a unique geographical position, both from the geopolitical and geo-economic point of view. Whether the Chinese Communist Party promotes diplomacy in Central Asia, or if it wants to implement the Belt and Road project, it is impossible for China to bypass Kazakhstan. Because China has no other choice but Kazakhstan.”

In Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which is culturally very close to Kazakhstan, are considered to be the two countries with the strongest anti-communist sentiment.

Anti-communist sentiment is deep-rooted and Beijing’s public relations are ineffective

A report published by a Russian think tank last year said that anti-communist sentiment is deeply rooted in Kazakh society. The reasons for this are partly related to the massive anti-communist propaganda of the Soviet era. On the other hand, it goes back even before the October Revolution to a long-standing fear of the Chinese Communist Party and the threat it poses to Kazakh society.

According to the report, anti-China sentiment is lower in the Kazakh border regions with China than in the western regions, far from the border between the two countries, because of the influence of trade between the two countries. Especially in the western region, where there is Chinese investment in some oil and gas development areas, the local community is very discontented with the CCP.

Over the past years, the Chinese Communist Party has invested heavily in Kazakhstan, but mainly in the oil and gas sector. Local media say that a quarter of Kazakh oil is extracted by Chinese companies. In addition, the Chinese Communist Party has been actively promoting soft power diplomacy in the region, including the establishment of a large number of Confucius Institutes. China has also become the most popular country for Kazakh students to study after Russia. But despite this, the Communist Party’s efforts to improve its image do not seem to have paid off yet.