A number of bipartisan lawmakers from the House and Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees have said that of the potential seeds of military conflict currently planted around the world, “Taiwan is the most worrisome. Despite Beijing‘s repeated warnings to Washington to “not hit bottom,” this did not diminish the unanimous cross-party support in Congress for stronger U.S.-Taiwan relations, with some lawmakers even countering that “China cannot dictate U.S. foreign policy” and calling on ” China clearly understands that the United States intends to abide by its defense commitments to Taiwan.”
Beijing has recently stepped up its military threats against Taipei, frequently sending military aircraft across the line to intrude into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone for harassment and other practices that have brought bipartisan concern about Taiwan to new heights in the U.S. Congress.
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD), a Republican U.S. senator from South Dakota, told Voice of America that China’s behavior throughout the Indo-Pacific region is quite aggressive and worrisome, but Taiwan is indeed a hot spot.
“At this moment, Taiwan is obviously a very sensitive area,” Sen. Rounds said. Rounds is the only Republican in the Senate who straddles the two congressional committees on military and foreign affairs that are most relevant to international policy.
The congressional House and Senate Armed Services Committees have held back-to-back hearings over the past several weeks on the topic of military strategy and deployment in the Indo-Pacific region. The security situation in the Taiwan Strait has received a great deal of attention from members of both parties, with the possibility of a military conflict across the Taiwan Strait being one of the most hotly debated topics.
“One thing I did notice is that Taiwan is getting a very different level of attention in our hearings than it did three or four years ago, and even compared to a year ago, than it did when I first entered the Senate,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), a Democratic U.S. senator from Virginia, told Voice of America.
Kaine, who is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, continued, “I don’t think it (conflict) is inevitable, but we’d be foolish to think (conflict) is impossible.”
“I think the biggest concern right now is Taiwan because of its proximity to China and because of China’s ongoing ambitions for Taiwan,” he said.
Kaine, who was paired with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to represent Democrats in the White House as a vice presidential candidate in 2016, is also a member of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. He and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) are the only Democrats in the Senate who are on both the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees.
Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, is co-chair of the Senate Taiwan Connection. He, who has visited Taiwan several times, told Voice of America that he has been deeply concerned about the security situation in the Taiwan Strait during his nearly 30 years as a senator.
“I’ve always been concerned that (a military conflict) would happen, that there would be a military conflict in Taiwan,” said Sen. Inhofe, 86, “because China has been sharpening its sword for years, and I’ve seen it all these years here (in Congress), and China has become so powerful that they’re putting all their resources into rebuilding the military and things like that.”
Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), a Republican U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania, is also concerned, saying he thinks a military conflict with China is almost inevitable for Taiwan and some other countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
“I don’t think I’m the only one, all indications are that they want to take Taiwan back under their rule, which is pretty much what’s happening in Hong Kong right now, and they’re moving as hard as they can in complete disregard of any agreement that they’ve made, and I think that’s their immediate goal,” Perry told the Voice of America.
Perry, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, recently introduced a new bill to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan defense cooperation. The bill, known as the Taiwan PLUS Act, aims to treat Taiwan as a member of the other NATO Plus countries and give it the same treatment as those countries in terms of arms sales.
The current members of NATO Plus include Japan, Australia, South Korea, Israel and New Zealand. Previously, some members of Congress also advocated the inclusion of India as a member of NATO Plus and the expansion of NATO Plus 5 to NATO Plus 6.
Perry stressed that this is to improve the military deterrence capability against China. He also said the U.S. should be tougher on China and give diplomatic recognition to Taiwan because “Taiwan is the real China.”
Republicans: Hope China clearly understands U.S. intentions to keep defense commitments to Taiwan
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and a Republican U.S. senator, also told Voice of America that “Taiwan is certainly the highest risk.”
“It’s a decision that they [China] have to make, and we certainly won’t start a war, but we have defense commitments that we intend to keep,” said Rubio, who has been a frequent voice in Congress and pushed for pro-Taiwan bills.
“Frankly, if they were to take action against Taiwan, it would be a war,” Rubio told Voice of America, “and that would mean they want to fight a war with the United States, but that’s not going to happen. I mean, I think China would prefer that Taiwan give in on its own and surrender to them. I don’t think they want an armed conflict.”
“I hope they clearly understand that the United States intends to keep the defense commitments it has made to Taiwan.”
Pressed further on when the trigger for a possible military conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait would be, Rubio analyzed that he believes Beijing’s goal is for Taiwan to change from within and then voluntarily submit and move toward reunification, but that failure to achieve that goal could be a change of heart.
Rubio said, “I think their preferred approach is the cascade of changes that we’ve seen happen in Hong Kong, that is, from the inside out, ultimately hoping to create a composite reality where Taiwan is diplomatically isolated and no country will protect them, coupled with economic pressure, and then possibly use that to bring Taiwan to its knees.”
“The reason I say Taiwan could be the trigger for a military conflict is that if you see a strong preference from the people of Taiwan generally, they don’t want to be forced to accept a Hong Kong-communist China type of arrangement. Then China would counter that kind of message with more aggressive and intrusive behavior, and that would potentially lead to some military conflict, which in turn could trigger a broader conflict,” Rubio explained.
“I also think that for Xi Jinping, it’s kind of about how to give him the final word, and I think that part of Xi Jinping’s political legacy is that he wants to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control.”
Republican U.S. Rep. Perry also predicted to Voice of America, “I do think Xi will wait until after the Winter Olympics, or at least after that I think he’ll have no qualms about it.”
Perry’s assessment echoes that of Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), a Republican U.S. senator from Arkansas. Cotton used the example of Russia’s military invasion of Crimea in 2014 during a recent Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to warn that Beijing might follow such a pattern. Cotton said Russia invaded Crimea militarily on Feb. 27, 2014, just four days after that year’s Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, ended Feb. 23.
“The Winter Olympics in Beijing will come to an end on Feb. 23 next year,” Cotton reminded the hearing.
Democrats: Biden would continue Trump‘s line on Taiwan
U.S. military officials and security experts have recently been issuing serious warnings about China attacking Taiwan by force. Both security affairs experts and in the military generals currently disagree quite a bit about whether and when China will use force. Both many experts warn that China may be on the verge of using force and many believe that Xi Jinping would not be tempted to take a desperate step while the military power contrast between the United States and China remains fairly clear.
Former President Donald Trump’s administration elevated Washington’s relations with Taipei. The Biden Administration is still evaluating its relationship with Beijing to develop a complete policy toward China, and administration officials have repeatedly mentioned that they will maintain close communication and consultation with Congress.
Kaine stressed that he believes the Biden administration’s position on Taiwan policy will only become more distinct, given China’s ambitions and the U.S. strategic position in the Indo-Pacific region.
“In fact, I think the Trump Administration has begun a change in its view of the Taiwan issue, and I think the Biden administration will continue that course rather than take a different direction,” Kaine said.
The recent frequent interactions between the U.S. and Taiwan and the continued warming of bilateral relations seem to bear out Cain’s statement.
Last Thursday, March 25, the American Institute in Taiwan and Taiwan’s representative office in the United States signed a memorandum of understanding in Washington on the establishment of a U.S.-Taiwan Maritime Police Working Group to enhance bilateral maritime police cooperation. This is the first MOU signed by the U.S. and Taiwan since the Biden administration took office.
Not surprisingly, the Biden administration’s tendency to continue to support Taiwan with substantive actions since taking office has triggered a strong backlash from Beijing. The day after the U.S. and Taiwan signed the MOU to strengthen maritime police cooperation, China dispatched 20 Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. This was the largest single-day incursion by Taiwan’s Defense Ministry since it began disclosing Chinese military aircraft disturbances in Taiwan last year.
Even so, two days later U.S. Ambassador to Palau John Hennessey-Niland unexpectedly accompanied Palau’s President Surangel Whipps, Jr. on a visit to Taiwan, sparking concern and discussion from all walks of Life.
John Nee said in Taipei on Tuesday that Taiwan and Palau are true friends of the U.S. in the region and that the three parties will have closer ties.
China’s Foreign Ministry responded that “the ‘one China’ principle is the political foundation of U.S.-China relations, and China is firmly opposed to any form of official U.S.-Taiwan contacts.”
Beijing also warned that the U.S. side should stop official U.S.-Taiwan contacts and “not try to break through China’s bottom line.”
In early March, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the United States to “fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue” and to “completely change the dangerous practice of the previous administration of ‘crossing the line’ and playing with fire. He also added that the Chinese government has “no room for compromise” on the Taiwan issue.
Bipartisan agreement: China can’t dictate U.S. foreign policy
Beijing’s rhetorical warnings to Washington apparently did not work. Bipartisan support in Congress on Taiwan continues to grow.
Speaking to Voice of America, Kaine said, “I don’t think we should follow their [China’s] advice. I think we need to combine with our allies to form a very credible deterrent, so China doesn’t feel they can take military action against a sovereign nation that is an ally of the United States.”
“China cannot dictate U.S. foreign policy,” Luntz said in a blunt response to a Voice of America reporter’s query, “We know Taiwan is a democracy, and we think they have good human rights. Most certainly, they’ve been good trading partners.”
Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Asia Pacific panel, told Voice of America that “[cross-strait issues] should be negotiated and negotiated between the two governments and the people, and it should be the will of the people of Taiwan, not the People’s Republic of China, that determines the state of Taiwan.”
“In order to prevent the People’s Republic of China from actually taking military action, I think the United States should have to be more clear and unambiguous in saying that if the People’s Republic of China does take military action, the United States will be on Taiwan’s side to defend them. Right now, that strategic ambiguity raises suspicions about what will happen. I never thought that was a good policy,” said Schabert, who is co-chair of the House Taiwan Connection.
Rep. Perry agreed it was Time for the United States to end the strategic ambiguity about Taiwan. He said, “What can we do? We can go to Taiwan and look across the strait at China and say, we will stand with the people of Taiwan, we will help protect you, we will not allow the Chinese government, the Chinese Communist Party to invade your country, and that’s what we can do.”
Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), a Democratic U.S. senator from Delaware, said he, too, is concerned about Taiwan’s security. “I look forward to working with my colleagues in a cross-party effort to ensure a secure future for Taiwan,” he told the Voice of America.
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