Taiwan and the United States signed a memorandum of cooperation on maritime patrol on March 26, the same day there were 20 common aircraft disturbing Taiwan. Strategic scholars analyze that although this has a certain psychological warfare effect, the substantive threat is not the strongest in recent years; in addition, Beijing‘s move obviously proves itself to the Chinese Communist threat theory.
According to the Central News Agency, Taiwan and the United States signed the “Memorandum of Understanding on the Establishment of the Maritime Patrol Working Group” on the 26th, and on the same day, there were two T8 anti-submarine aircraft, one Air Marshal 500, four Boom 6K, 10 J16, two J10, and one T8 technical reconnaissance aircraft intruding into Taiwan’s southwest air defense identification zone (ADIZ). The bomb 6K and the transport 8 anti-submarine aircraft even infiltrated the southeastern part of Taiwan on a rare occasion.
The day was the largest scale of communist aircraft disturbance in Taiwan since the Ministry of National Defense released the news of communist aircraft in the “Instant Military News” section of its official website on September 17 last year.
Shu Xiaohuang, a scholar at the National Defense Security Research Institute, analyzed that sea patrol is not a military unit, and Taiwan-US sea patrol cooperation is less politically sensitive, and can also explore cooperation tacit understanding by jointly solving smuggling, anti-terrorism and other issues.
However, he pointed out that the U.S. Coast Guard was also included in the Rim of the Pacific military exercises (RIMPAC); the future Coast Guard may be able to participate in formal exercises through the Taiwan-U.S. cooperation mechanism. He believes that the large-scale communist aircraft disturbing Taiwan can be interpreted as a political declaration by the Chinese Communist Party to strengthen security cooperation between Taiwan and the United States. In addition, the Yun-8 and Bo6K are circling around the southeast of Taiwan, apparently to harass the search and rescue work of the recently crashed F-5E fighter plane.
According to an analysis by Jie Zhong, a researcher at the Chinese Strategic Foresight Association, although 20 aircraft were deployed and presented a “systematic expeditionary strike group”, the intensity and threat level of the group is still not the strongest in recent years, as the Chinese Communist Party sent a total of 14 aircraft, including the Boom 6, the Transport 8, the Tu-154, the LL-78 and the Su-30, on the morning of November 22, 2017. A total of 14 aircraft, including the Boom 6, the Transport 8, the Tu-154, the LL-78 and the Su-30, were dispatched to conduct long-range training via the Bus Strait.
Jie Zhong pointed out that although there were fewer aircraft sorties at the Time, there was a combination of lL-78 air refueling aircraft and Su-30 fighter jets, which was even more symbolic and forceful than now: without the lL-78 to perform air refueling for Su-30, the Chinese communist bombers, electric warplanes and early warning aircraft groups that crossed the first island chain would not have the long-distance escort of fighter jets, and their effectiveness in actual combat would be greatly reduced. In contrast, there were no fighter jets accompanying the Boom 6K and the Transport 8 after they entered Taiwan’s southern and southeastern airspace on the 26th.
As for the intention of the Chinese Communist Party’s action, Jie Zhong said that it cannot be ruled out that it is the established systematic long-distance training of the Chinese Communist Party, but at the same time, it is also in line with the previous pressure on Taiwan when Beijing is dissatisfied with the progress of Taiwan-US relations.
National Defense Academy scholar Su Ziyun pointed out that the CCP’s move only has a tactical effect and lacks the significance of a substantive military strike, which can be described as “seven parts political, three parts military.
He stressed that Beijing’s actions are very unwise, and are clearly self-proving the CCP’s threat theory and putting itself in a deeper diplomatic dilemma.
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