The big row of long glory led to the global industry chain chaos, Germany is afraid that because of the delay in obtaining auto parts, France, Spain and Italy because of soaring natural gas prices, become the more severe disaster countries.
For Evergreen Marine container ship “Chang Chi Wheel” since the 23rd, because of sandstorms and strong winds and trapped in the Suez Canal; “Associated Press” 24 analysis, “big row Chang Rong” is the cost of nearly 10 billion U.S. dollars of goods per day, congestion in the 193 The Associated Press analyzed on the 24th that the cost of the “long row of glory” is nearly $10 billion a day in goods, congested in the 193-kilometer canal. Experts analysis, with the Suez Canal shipping continues to stop, Germany, Spain, Italy and France and other European countries, fear is “the most serious disaster countries”; while the United States may be affected by the extent of the lightest compared to.
Shoulder the global hope of the strange hand, still trying to rescue the stranded “long Chi ship”, trying to restore the artificial waterway traffic connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, so that the blocked Eurasian transport unsettled. The newspaper pointed out that the Suez Canal is about 193 kilometers, but 10% of global trade traffic passes through it (CNN reported 12%), in order to avoid driving the southern tip of Africa and make the journey more lengthy.
Lloyd’s List estimates that about $9.6 billion of goods travel through the Suez Canal each day; of that, about $5.1 billion travels west and $4.5 billion east. About a quarter of the traffic is carried by container ships, with an average of more than 50 ships crossing the canal each day, carrying 1.2 billion tons of cargo.
Georgetown University economics professor Ganapati (Sharat Ganapati) said that when transporting goods from Asia to Europe, there is no alternative option such as rail or truck, resulting in European companies need parts and raw materials delayed delivery, for example: the European apparel industry needs India’s cotton, plastic chemical needs of the Middle East oil, as well as the continent’s auto parts.
The University of Oregon (University of Oregon) Department of Economics Professor pointed out that the global transportation network of key nodes of the traffic jam, the impact will spread across the globe. However, because the goods from Asia mainly go to the West Coast, the United States when the wave of “long row of glory” in the loss of the smallest victims.
In contrast, the fear of delayed delivery of imported goods in Europe, unloading empty container ships can not go to Asia, these will exacerbate the problem of shortage of container ships caused by the increase in demand for consumer goods during the new crown pandemic. “Whenever there is a problem with one link, the whole system is affected, and it will take some Time to clarify the problem.”
As far as the industry chain is concerned, the surge in procurement demand during the pandemic has put severe pressure on the supply chain, which has been compounded by the outbreak of the “Evergreen Rebellion. Restrictions on crew entry due to the Epidemic and the jamming of ports with ships, resulting in container ships anchored off the California coast and unable to dock and unload, have added to the shortage of semiconductors and rare earths, preventing the production of automobiles and other consumer goods. The fragile supply chain is now in danger of disruption.
From a consumer perspective, if the disruptions continue, U.S. consumers will begin to feel the pinch and finished goods from Asia to the U.S. will begin to spread across the Pacific. However, the canal closure will result in delayed delivery of goods assembled in Europe and shipped to the United States.
According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, the jam is unlikely to have much of an impact on the U.S. or global economy unless the long row of glory lasts for weeks or even months; however, oil prices are bound to rise. On the other hand, if the traffic jam causes car manufacturers to delay access to auto parts, the German economy may suffer a heavy blow; Spain, Italy and France, because of excessive reliance on oil transported by the canal, the canal shutdown may make gas prices soar.
In terms of oil transportation, the Lloyd’s List statistics show that about 1.9 million barrels of oil are transported through the Suez Canal every day, accounting for 7% of global oil shipments by sea. Therefore, the canal shipping shutdown will inevitably affect the Middle East to Europe oil and gas transportation. According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, approximately 1 million barrels of Crude Oil, 140 barrels of gasoline, and other refined products flow through the Suez Canal daily from the Middle East and northern Asia to Europe.
Therefore, the sooner the Chang Chi incident is brought to a close, the more limited the impact on the global oil market will be. Especially with the pandemic, energy demand remains weak; but if it lasts a month, the option to travel to Africa may be one of the options. Of course, the ensuing long cost, fearing that prices will also follow the rise.
As for refined petroleum products, as the related goods shipped to Europe will also cross the Suez Canal, the canal shutdown delayed the delivery of refined petroleum products. At this time, European refineries may temporarily increase production in response to market weakness. However, as the season enters spring, the demand for LNG will decrease, which means less price volatility compared to the Panama Canal delay, I’m afraid.
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