Before starting the main content of this article, let’s introduce a very interesting news: in September 2020, the Ministry of Education held a press conference about the great achievements in the field of education in that year: the number of dropouts in compulsory education in China has dropped significantly from 600,000 in the previous year to 2,419 in the current year, which has almost completely eliminated the dropout phenomenon.
With this very interesting evolution of data, of course we cannot help but ask some follow-up questions: since the official compulsory school dropout figures were as high as 600,000 in 2019 and only dropped significantly after September 2020 (when middle school has been completed), what was the situation in each of the previous years? What is the cumulative number of dropouts? Well, this is actually easy data to calculate: every year the statistical bulletin publishes the number of elementary school enrollments, the number of elementary school graduates, the number of middle school enrollments, and the number of middle school graduates. By calculating the difference between these four figures, we can easily calculate the number of dropouts from compulsory education in each year.
Looking at the data for 2010-2020 alone, the peak of dropouts occurred in 2014, with 4.69 million dropouts in that year. Note that the caliber of calculation here is outcome data, back-calculated from the number of graduates, whose dropout outcome is already decided and is almost impossible to return to school. The explanation I can give for the phased peak dropout data in 2014 is that previously China’s economy actually suffered tremendous difficulties, especially in 2013 when the money shortage repeatedly hit all industries hard, resulting in a large number of families losing their economic resources and causing children to drop out of school, and this outcome data was reflected in 2014. Since then I China’s economy has gradually recovered under the stimulus of an unprecedented price increase and de-stocking strategy, and the dropout phenomenon is gradually alleviated, with the number of dropouts falling to 380,000 by 2020, a 91.9% drop from 2014.
Let me emphasize again that the 380,000 dropouts in 2020 in this table are outcome data, children who had previously left school and whose dropout results are confirmed in 2020 by back-calculating the number of graduates. According to the Ministry of Education’s statistics in September, after excluding this group of confirmed dropouts, there are only about 2,000 children left who are still in the process of dropping out. I have an explanation for these figures: In 2020, a large number of farmers are stuck at Home, unable to go out to work, and dropping out of school is meaningless, so they simply return to school.
Well, folks, although the above table has calculated an amazing figure: from 1990 to now, China has increased the total number of illiterate people who have not graduated from junior high school by 133 million, that is, there are more than 100 million illiterate people in the post-80s, and this figure alone can already crush other public figures. However, as the nation’s leading data expert, my analysis of course cannot stop at this level, and I will of course have further analysis, which is a very serious issue: within 3 years, the problem of serious oversupply of education degrees in our great China will come on.
To illustrate this more clearly, I will only list enrollment numbers and birth data tables after 2010.
After reaching a peak of 17.91 million births in 2016, the number of births in China began a dramatic decline. 2020 births are not yet available and will need to wait for the 2020 census results to be released. However, the fact is that the public security department’s household registration has long been fully electronic and birth certificates are all processed online. There may be a small number of missing population in individual areas that have not been entered into the public security system, and there will also be a delay in the registration of some of the population, but this phenomenon will occur every year and continue into the next year, and the pattern will not change. 1.03 million newborns were born in 2020 and have been registered with the public security authorities, a decrease of 14.9% from 11.79 million in 2019. This drop is available as an overall rule to project the births in 2020. 14.65 x (1-14.9%) = 12.46 million births in 2019. This is probably a more optimistic projection of the births in 2020.
According to this data, the births in 2020, compared to the peak in 2016, the decline of just four years to 30.4%. And, as the number of marriages declines even more rapidly during this period, it will certainly bring a consequent decline in the number of births, and mothers who have had their second child are now generally over 40 years old, so it is difficult to expect them to have a third child. So the birth rate in China is bound to maintain its rapid decline thereafter.
Most of the peak births in 2016 will be enrolled seven years later, in 2023. This means that after 2023, there will be an overall surplus of elementary school places in China, and the surplus will grow so fast that people will be caught off guard and the education sector will not be able to respond in Time. Think about it, the overall birth population shrinks by 30% in the 4 years from 2016-2020, so by projection, the education sector will have to cut 30% of elementary school with great efficiency after 2023. As the newborn population continues to decline, more and more elementary schools will have to be eliminated because they are unable to recruit students.
At the current rate of decline in China’s newborn population, the probability is that by 2023 China’s newborn population will be less than 10 million, which means that by 2030, about half of all elementary school will have to be eliminated compared to today’s. The total number of elementary school staff in China in 2019 is 5.85 million. Even if we consider the adoption of small class teaching can leave more teachers, by 2030, this group will have to be eliminated at least one-third, that is, at least 1.9 million elementary school staff, necessarily unemployed.
And, what you must remember is this: this layoff is bottom-up, continuing step by step from elementary school to middle school, then to high school and college. This is the objective law, and there is no way to resist it. So, elementary school teachers will face the fate of being laid off within 3 years, and at least one-third within 10 years; then middle school teachers are within 6 years, high school teachers within 9 years, and university teachers within 13 years, all face the fate of being significantly eliminated, this is the objective law, absolutely no way to resist. Considering that the education authorities will definitely be proactive and initiate layoffs in advance to deal with the situation of excess education, this time will be pushed further forward. At the earliest, next year, there will be a nationwide wave of school mergers in elementary school.
Based on such considerations, we can make further inferences.
First, the so-called investment in school places will become the biggest joke in history, and at least half of the schools will be abolished within 10 years, and more schools will be abolished as long as the declining trend of the newborn population remains unchanged, and school-age children will become precious resources, and education will become a buyer’s market. There is no such concept as restricting enrollment. According to the trend, by 2023 at the earliest, and no later than 2025 at the latest, the practice of compulsory allocation of school places according to the place of residence will disappear and become a historical memory incomprehensible to the new generation of Chinese people. And the investment in degree houses will be repeatedly ridiculed by history for its chic folly. The absurdity of this matter is estimated that only the infamous Dutch tulip speculation can be compared to it.
Second, the next batch of college entrance examination candidates, please do not apply for the teacher training program. The first thing you need to do is to get a good idea of what you are getting into.
At the end of this article, by the way, spit a groove: my big China’s university after several expansions, now has basically close to 100% college entrance examination admission rate, the candidates have been basically all levels of the university network. In the data, the number of applicants for the 2020 college entrance exam is 10.71 million, a number that significantly exceeds the number of graduates from general high schools in the current year, 7.87 million, because the college entrance exam also allows vocational high school and junior college students to apply, as well as the existence of some repeaters. Well, the admission result is this: the total enrollment of 9.67 million in 2020 college and university undergraduates, the overall admission rate is as high as 90.3%. Take the admission rate of 2020 college entrance examination in Shandong, a large province of college entrance examination, for example, its undergraduate admission rate of 50.2%, the specialist admission rate of 39.4%, basically on par with the overall level of the country. In other words, now to take the college entrance examination, as long as the candidate is willing, basically can guarantee a school can go to mix. However, soon, along with the dramatic decline in the newborn population, this situation of universities everywhere will quickly change. I reckon that local universities like Foshan Institute of Science and Technology and Liuzhou University of Technology will bear the brunt of the cuts due to lack of students. It’s not that hard to imagine, soon, everyone will be able to see it.
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