The Communist Party’s one-child policy of more than three decades has led to countless fetal deaths and depressed Family size. Now China’s aging society has led to an overwhelming number of young people and a declining fertility rate year after year. U.S. experts believe that in the 21st century U.S.-China battle, demographic changes will ultimately allow the U.S. to win over the Chinese Communist Party.
Recently, the U.S. website Newsmax reported that according to its research on various statistical trends, the U.S.-China battle will end due to demographic changes in both countries, with the U.S. having an absolute advantage in demographics, immigrant absorption, and will eventually lead China under the Chinese Communist Party in terms of economic wealth, power and overall superiority.
Who will be blessed with an aging population in China and the United States
The Chinese Communist Party has become a world economic power with a huge market made up of the Chinese population. But China is now facing a trend of low birth rates and minimal migration, which means the majority of the population will age, retire, and not be replaced by younger generations anytime soon.
Tim Heath, a China expert and senior international defense researcher at RAND Corporation, told Newsmax that China will face a financial dilemma of how to take care of its aging population as its population declines and its current workforce exits the market. “The problem in China is that it’s getting old before it gets rich,” he said.
Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) released a study in 2019 about China’s demographics in 2040. The report states that China’s population over the age of 50 will increase by 250 million between 2015 and 2040, while the population under 50 will decrease by a similar amount.
One report shows that in 2017, six workers in China in the 20- to 64-year-old age group supported one older person over 65, a number that drops to two by 2039, and the number of workers supporting an older person will drop to 1.6 by 2050.
Dean Cheng, a researcher at the U.S. think tank, told Newsmax that China will soon have one worker supporting one parent and up to four grandparents as a result of the one-child policy. “This will create a real problem and will only get worse as Parents and grandparents retire,” he said.
Meanwhile, China’s main state pension fund and urban workers’ pension fund will be depleted by 2035, according to a study released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 2019. He Tianmu said China will face a growing dilemma: “If there is no money, how will you take care of these elderly people?”
While the U.S. population is also aging, Newsmax reports that it will have a younger population by 2030 compared to other countries. Currently, there are about 3.5 workers supporting each older person eligible for Social Security. By 2060, that number is expected to decrease to 2.5.
Pictured is an elderly man in Jiujiang, China.
China’s maternal plummeting population declines national poverty
A similar problem arises on the other end of the spectrum, namely the birth rate. Cheng Bin told Newsmax, “Tomorrow’s population count was determined yesterday.”
China is facing a rapidly declining birth rate as a result of the Communist Party’s one-child policy, with the number of women of childbearing age itself declining on one hand and the fertility rate of women of childbearing age declining on the other.
According to a study by Complete Intelligence, a global demographics and analytics firm, a database company, the number of women of childbearing age (defined as between the ages of 15 and 49) in China will decline from 346 million in 2018 to 318 million in 2023.
According to some projections, China’s fertility rate is well below the fertility rate to maintain population levels, which is 2.1 children per woman. Estimates put the number of children per woman in China at about 1.6, but it could be as low as 1.18.
A report published in the medical journal The Lancet predicts that by 2100, China’s population will be 732 million, while the U.S. population will increase to 336 million and become the largest economy in 2098, Newsmax reports.
A “gray rhino” is a highly likely, high-impact but overlooked threat. Susan Yoshihara, Ph.D., president of the American Council on Women, Peace, and Security, argues in an article in The Hill that the issue of demographic extinction is exactly what (“The Gray Rhinoceros”) In an article in The Hill, she argued that demographic extinction is what author Michele Wucker calls a “gray rhino” and that Beijing does not know what to do about it.
Although the Communist Party has tried to encourage childbirth by easing policies, it has not worked. Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng China, told CNBC, “In general, easing the fertility policy won’t have much impact on the economy because the slow growth of the population is not due to policy restrictions, at least not for the past 20 years.”
The U.S. population is expected to grow due to immigration, despite the fact that fertility rates in the U.S. are not rising. Census projections show that by 2030, the U.S. natural-born population will increase by 1 million and the international immigrant population will increase by 1.1 million, which will make immigration the primary driver of U.S. population growth. By 2060, the U.S. natural-born population will increase by 500,000, but will still attract more than 1 million immigrants.
He Tianmu said, “The U.S. (economy) has a better outlook because of immigration.”
Commenting on the size of the economy, Ho Tien Mu said that while China may have the largest economy, it doesn’t matter. He said, “What really matters is not only how big a country’s economy is, but also how rich it is.”
Indermit Gill, a former World Bank expert, said in a report for the Brookings Institute in January that China’s economy is almost similar to that of the United States in 1960, but that 90 percent of Chinese citizens were considered poor using U.S. income standards at the Time. If our numbers are correct, he wrote, “China is years, if not decades, behind schedule.”
China’s birth rate has declined even after the “full opening of the second child” policy. (AFP)
Is it better to have good people than good places? U.S. Attracts Talent to Define the Future
The Communist Party’s one-child policy has also led to a serious gender imbalance in Chinese society, which will cause a number of social problems and have implications in areas such as public health and the military.
Chengbin said he believes China suffers from under-reporting of AIDS because of the large number of unmarried men and the lack of women to marry them. “You have thousands of young men who will never get married,” he said. “Men who are not in monogamous relationships may go to sex workers. That’s going to lead to some very ugly public health problems.”
And on the military front, due to demographic changes, the Chinese do not want to send their only children to war to avoid losing their lives in war resulting in no one to care for their parents and grandparents.
In addition, China has not yet abolished its household registration system, which has led to a talent market that is not free and open.
As for the U.S., experts say the U.S. could surpass China in high-tech and economic terms if it developed an immigration policy that would encourage attracting the most intelligent talent among skilled laborers. But they don’t expect China (the Chinese Communist Party) to do so. According to the Eberstadt report, international migration is “negligible for China compared to its large population.
He Tianmu said, “The United States has a tremendous advantage in having an attractive place for people to work and live.” “The United States should take a thoughtful, well-designed approach to bringing the world’s most brilliant minds to America. This has been a major factor in America’s success for decades.”
New immigrants attend a naturalization ceremony for U.S. citizens.
Dr. Yoshihara believes that in the long run, especially at this stage of competition with China (CCP), the U.S. should consider exploiting China’s (CCP) strategic weaknesses, and that uncontrolled population decline is arguably one of China’s greatest vulnerabilities.
And will the inability to retain talent in such a vulnerable place add insult to injury?
Brian Sobel, a San Francisco-based political strategist who encourages legal immigration, argues that America will always be fertile ground for fantastic ideas and that immigrants can really do well in the United States. “Immigration will help define what the next century will look like,” he told Newsmax.
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