NPC Standing Committee expands powers to appoint deputy premiers at any Time in the future
On March 11, the National People’s Congress (NPC) adopted a decision to amend the Organic Law of the NPC (hereinafter: “Organic Law”). The amended Organic Law allows the NPC Standing Committee to “decide on the appointment and removal of other members of the State Council upon nomination by the Premier of the State Council” when the NPC is not in session.
The Communist Party’s so-called Constitution only mentions that the NPC Standing Committee has the power to nominate and decide on the selection of ministers, committee heads, auditors general, and secretaries general on the basis of the premier. According to the revised Organic Law, the level at which the NPC Standing Committee can appoint and remove is raised to Vice Premier and State Councilor. In the future, vice premiers of the CPC can be appointed and removed without going through the annual NPC meeting, and can be appointed and removed anytime the NPC Standing Committee meets.
At present, the NPC Standing Committee has formed a working practice of meeting in the second half of the “fortnight”, usually holding six meetings a year. Since this session, the number of temporary additional meetings of the Standing Committee reached 6 times. In other words, in the future, the choice of Vice Premier can be decided by the CPC Central Committee at any time, and then handed over to the NPC Standing Committee for appointment, instead of being limited to the annual NPC meeting.
Xi Jinping‘s “Addition” to Li Keqiang’s Successor Needed Before “20th National Congress”
The authorities’ change to this mechanism may not be a whim, nor is it as simple as the outside world thinks.
After Xi Jinping amended the rules for the re-election of the president in 2018, his re-election to the 20th National Assembly is basically intact. The problem is that the premiership of the State Council has not been removed along with the presidency for a maximum of two consecutive terms. Li Keqiang, who has already served two terms as premier, will need to step down from his post in 2022. Who will succeed Li Keqiang has been one of the elements of media speculation.
Hu Chunhua, who was initially favored to succeed Xi Jinping, was not found to succeed Li Keqiang until 2017, when Xi Jinping abolished the rule that the president can only serve two terms after the arrest and imprisonment of Sun Zhengcai, then secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee, and even if he succeeds as premier in the end, it depends on whether Xi is willing to do so.
One thing, however, is that the successor to Li Keqiang should come from among the vice premiers. This has not been broken in recent decades, judging from the career trajectories of Zhu Rongji, Wen Jiabao and Li Keqiang. If Xi is really ready to let Hu Chunhua succeed Li Keqiang, then there is no need to make changes in this “two sessions” to extend the NPC Standing Committee’s power of appointment to officials at the level of vice premier. For Hu Chunhua, who is now a vice premier and will take over the premiership at a higher level in the future, this is in line with the internal rules of the Communist Party and does not require any institutional changes.
Since Xi has made the move to change the NPC Standing Committee’s appointment power, it is likely that Li Keqiang’s future successor is not among the current vice premiers and will need to be added quickly in the coming year. If you wait until next year’s “two sessions” to appoint the new vice premier, and then in October next year, the “twenty”, directly let him take over Li Keqiang premiership, a little “warm-up” time This will give people the feeling of “rocketing”, and the impression that Xi is cronyism will be stronger, which is not good for Xi.
In other words, if Xi is really prepared to do the “addition” and select a successor from outside the current vice premier, whether it is Li Keqiang or another Xi crony, you could see that person added as the new vice premier by the NPC Standing Committee within the next year.
Xi Jinping’s “minus” Hu Chunhua’s high-risk moment
There is another situation where Xi Jinping is doing a “subtraction”. In other words, Xi Jinping is subtracting from the current vice premier, taking one of them out, or letting a potential contender volunteer, and then adding his own preferred candidate.
The prerequisite for “subtraction” is that Xi Jinping has difficulty winning the internal struggle at the top, and Hu Chunhua’s qualifications and “achievements” are recognized by all factions, making it difficult for Xi’s proposed candidate to compete with Hu. In this case, Xi can only repeat his old tactic of thoroughly investigating Hu Chunhua’s work in the name of anti-corruption, eventually either arresting Hu in the same way Sun Zhengcai stepped down or stepping down Li Yuanchao, so that Hu can directly withdraw from the competition.
Xi Jinping mentioned corruption in the field of coal resources in Inner Mongolia when he attended the deliberations of the Inner Mongolia delegation on the first day of the opening session of the National People’s Congress on March 5. He said, “take national resources to engage in bribery, to engage in power and money transactions, this account always has to be counted.” Xi reportedly “looked around the room” and “there was silence”.
Xi also said that not only should there be zero tolerance for new corruption, but also zero tolerance for past stock corruption. The website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection then issued an article saying that corruption in the field of coal should be “investigated 20 years in reverse”.
The biography shows that Hu Chunhua was the secretary of Inner Mongolia from 2009 to 2013, and was framed in this 20-year period.
And, Xi’s statement is not consistent, there are significant changes. In the communiqué of the 19th National Congress, the authorities also claimed to “focus on the leading cadres who have not converged since the 18th Party Congress”, but from February last year, Inner Mongolia suddenly proposed to “investigate 20 years of coal-related corruption in reverse. “The Chinese Commission for Discipline Inspection has also issued a response to this.
On March 10, the mainland’s energy news website, “Nengmian”, quoted sources as saying that the former chairman and party secretary of the National Energy Group, Qiao Baoping, had recently died. An unofficial source said that Qiao Baoping from Inner Mongolia died an “unnatural death”.
It is noteworthy that the 66-year-old Qiao Baoping was not only a native of Tuzuo Banner in Inner Mongolia, but also came from a “regimented” background, having served as the head of the Organization Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League.
Hu Chunhua became the first secretary of the Central Secretariat of the Communist Youth League in 2006.
If Xi Jinping is prepared to “subtract” first, further political changes and more intense power struggles are expected at the top of the Communist Party in the future.
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