Many details of the joint Russian-Chinese lunar exploration cooperation project have not yet been released. Mutual suspicions and fears of technology loss have often led to the fate of some of the two countries’ past large-scale cooperation projects. Many observers are therefore unimpressed with the two countries’ newly announced lunar exploration plans.
Will the joint lunar exploration between the two countries also end in a shambolic manner?
China and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding on March 9 to jointly build an international lunar research station. The news has attracted attention, but some Russian observers familiar with relations between the two countries say that what has been signed is only a non-binding declaratory document, with no real action so far and too many unknowns about the future of the joint lunar exploration program between the two countries.
They believe it is too early to draw conclusions about the future of the joint Russian-Chinese lunar exploration cooperation program based on past experience with many large-scale projects between the two countries. A Russian scholar on China told local official media that whenever the two countries negotiate cooperation projects, China often comes up with a list of technologies it wants to acquire, and many of them end up in a dead end.
Some comments on Russian social media also suggest that a poorly executed lunar exploration project between the two countries could be a repeat of the heavy helicopter development project between them. China had expected to master the technology through cooperation in the development of heavy helicopters. But the cooperation turned out to be China’s money, and Russia became a subcontractor, rather than jointly developing the technology as originally envisioned.
Russia tightens control on technology outflow, tests partnership on moon probe
Lissov, an independent commentator in the space sector, said Russia sold China a lot of technology and sample devices in the field of manned spacecraft years ago. Similar cooperation would not make much sense if the two sides’ space cooperation remained dominated by commercial interests.
As far as I know, the current cooperation in the space sector is still based on commercial interests,” Lissov said. That is, Russia sells to China, or China sells something to Russia, and of course that is a form of cooperation. But the best cooperation is still one in which both countries should contribute and jointly develop technology.”
He said that joint development of technology makes real sense. Russia can also cooperate with Europe, or with the United States, if only commercial interests are involved.
Russian experts weekly said that it is too early to discuss how far Russia will go on the road of cooperation with China on the moon and how much benefit cooperation with China in this field can bring to Russia, because Russia does not have experience in large-scale cooperation with China in the space field, and the establishment of a research station on the moon is just a test of the partnership.
However, in the course of cooperation with China, Russia has in recent years increasingly tightened its control over the flow of science and technology to China. A number of Russian scientists in the fields of aviation, space and other fields are constantly being arrested while cooperating with China. Russian judicial authorities have charged them with providing technology to China, and some have even received heavy sentences for treason.
Old cosmonautics power wants to be equal with China
Russia has a great deal of experience and technology accumulated over the years in the space sector. Various probes were launched to the moon several times during the Soviet era, as early as 1959 when it launched the world’s first unmanned probe to make a hard landing on the lunar surface. The former Soviet Union, Russia and the United States also share a wealth of experience in cooperating on the International Space Station project.
Russian media said that although Russia was also invited to participate in the U.S.-led lunar exploration program, Russia withdrew because it did not want to take on the role of little buddy. In its cooperation with China, Russia will seek an equal role. In addition, China’s Chang’e 5 lunar probe, launched late last year, successfully demonstrated complex docking techniques in orbit, which also drew Russia’s attention. Some Russian experts believe that China’s move is an obvious preparation for sending astronauts to land on the moon in the future.
Roscosmos head Rogozin has invited Chinese space leaders to participate in the launch of Russia’s Lunar 25 probe this October. The launch will take place at Russia’s Eastern Rocket Range across the Heilongjiang River. This is the second Time Russia has launched a probe to the moon since the 1970s.
The eight is not yet in place. Coordination of the two countries’ projects may begin in 2024
The Russian-US cooperation on the International Space Station project could end in 2024. Russian cosmonautics leader Rogozin said late last year, congratulating astronauts aboard the ISS on the New Year, that Russia must implement its own program of lunar exploration and long-range space exploration.
Many observers say the U.S. lunar exploration program now has a clear timetable and budget, and much work is on the horizon. Russia and China also each have their own lunar exploration programs. China will also step up construction of a manned space station this year. Against this backdrop, the future of the joint Russian-Chinese lunar exploration program is even more unpredictable as to whether China will put forth the energy and money to conduct another joint lunar exploration with Russia.
They believe that if things go well, Russian-Chinese lunar exploration could start as early as 2026. But the two sides have planned for 2024, allowing Russia’s Lunar 26 probe program to coordinate with China’s Chang’e 7 program.
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