As Beijing‘s “two sessions” are now underway, some top Communist Party officials are sending some messages in their rhetoric, despite the falsehoods. Xu Qiliang, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and considered Xi Jinping‘s most trusted general in the military, revealed the reasons for the military spending increase during a discussion among NPC deputies, the Daily Mail reported March 8.
He said that after the Trump administration and Wuhan pneumonia, the relationship between the United States and mainland China is strained and it is difficult for both sides to escape the “Thucydides trap”. Therefore, the mainland should increase its military spending to modernize and thus prepare for the inevitable war. Xu Qiliang believes that China will soon surpass the United States as an economic power, with a GDP that exceeds 70 percent of that of its rival. The military must accelerate its capabilities in the face of the Thucydides trap and border issues,” he stressed. The Communist Party’s military must make breakthroughs in operational methods and combat capabilities to lay a solid foundation for the modernization of the military.”
The term “Thucydides Trap” was coined by American political scientist Graham Allison, a phrase considered an “iron law” of international relations that comes from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides. He argued that when a rising power competes with an existing dominant hegemon, both sides face a situation similar to that of Sparta in the 5th century B.C., when the rise of Athens caused the land hegemon to be wary, and the challenge of the existing hegemon to the rising power often ended in war. Historically, Athens and Sparta both fell after 30 years of war.
Undoubtedly, in the past few years, the trade war, technology war, cyber war, and information war between China and the United States in the battlefield without smoke and mirrors is a contest after the Chinese Communist Party challenged the United States, which replaced the substantive war. The reason why the Chinese Communist Party dares to challenge the U.S. and Europe comprehensively is precisely the result of the U.S. and Europe’s bred indulgence.
After Trump became president in January 2017, with the support of hawkish cabinet members, he revitalized the U.S. economy and vigorously developed manufacturing, while adjusting his national security strategy to consider the CCP as the number one enemy and taking a tough stance against the CCP on many issues such as trade. Especially in the past year or so, Trump’s series of heavy punches make the CCP hard to resist, Zhongnanhai not only faces a political crisis, but also faces a sharp decline in exports, sluggish domestic demand, the withdrawal of a large number of foreign enterprises, huge capital outflow, the increase in the closure of domestic private enterprises, a sharp increase in unemployment, serious stagflation and other crises. The Chinese Communist Party, which has repeatedly called on the U.S. to “lift a stone and smash its own feet,” has softened up and begged for mercy, but could not.
The Chinese Communist Party, as the challenger, is in fear, and with the collusion of the US deep government, welcomes Biden, who is deeply involved with Beijing, to power in 2021. In its euphoria, Zhongnanhai, at least on the surface, regained its former arrogance and publicly gave Biden “three tasks” with the intention of putting U.S.-China relations back on track. However, nearly two months after Biden took office, things have not developed as Beijing had hoped. Under pressure from domestic Anti-Communist forces and public opinion, the Biden Administration has softened its policies on some issues, but it does not dare to be too close to the Chinese Communist Party. Beijing is the biggest competitor”, and so on.
However, the Biden administration’s softer attitude on Hong Kong than Trump’s has allowed Beijing to do whatever it wants in Hong Kong, regardless of its promises, and the so-called “one country, two systems” has long been gone. And with Hong Kong in its sights, Zhongnanhai seems to have gained more strength and is once again targeting Taiwan. In addition to the foreign minister’s warning to the Biden administration not to “cross the line” and “play with fire” on the Taiwan issue, in recent times, Chinese military aircraft have been flying around Taiwan to provoke, not without intention.
In a new research report released on February 9, Australian think tank China Matters pointed out that Xi Jinping, unlike past Communist leaders, has made up his mind to resolve the Taiwan issue during his tenure, and will likely use trade, military exercises and other means of pressure to force the Taiwan The next step will likely be to force Taiwan’s government to come to the negotiating table and commit to reunification through trade and military exercises. “China Affairs reminds the Australian government that it must be prepared for any eventuality, and that Australia and its allies should plan ahead and discuss countermeasures against Beijing’s pressure on Taiwan, and work with allies to prevent a communist invasion of Taiwan before it becomes an established fact.
So, will Beijing invade Taiwan by force?In an April 2019 speech at the Brookings Institution, a U.S. think tank, then-U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Trachtenberg said that throughout the Indo-Pacific region, the Chinese Communist Party is becoming increasingly belligerent and that the United States works closely with allies and partners threatened by Beijing. If the Biden administration chooses to abandon military protection of Taiwan, the probability of Beijing’s use of force is present.
Therefore, Xu Qiliang’s public remarks on the “Thucydides trap” at the NPC are unusual, as they have rarely been mentioned by Chinese officials before. Xi also said during his 2015 visit to the United States that “there is no such thing as a Thucydides trap,” but that “if powerful countries repeatedly commit strategic miscalculations, they may lay a trap for themselves.”
Combined with the Communist Party’s “Army Logistics Regulations” passed last December and officially effective January 1 of this year, and the newly revised National Defense Law, especially the latter’s addition of “threats to development interests” as a condition for mobilizing for war, and the Order No. 1 signed by Xi Jinping in early January, issuing a mobilization order to the entire army for training, which instructs the entire army To Xi thought as a guide, “focus on the preparation for war”, “comprehensively improve the level of training combat and the ability to win”, the army to “from the actual combat training, joint combat training, science and technology, strong training, rule by law four aspects to promote the exercise The army should “promote exercises in four areas: actual combat training, joint combat training, scientific and technological training, and training in accordance with the law”, and the requirement to “ensure that all the Time standby for war, ready to fight”, etc. It is not difficult to speculate what Xu Qiliang’s words and the purpose of the Chinese Communist Party’s large increase in military spending, that is, when necessary, do not hesitate to go to war, and the Taiwan Strait is the most likely place to use force, perhaps it is Xu Qiliang’s mouth ” inevitable war”.
According to the latest official microblog of the Ministry of National Defense, Wu Qian, spokesman for the Chinese military and armed forces delegation, said the 6.8 percent increase in the national defense budget is mainly in response to land border disputes, island territory issues and maritime delimitation disputes, and he clearly singled out the situation in the Taiwan Strait as relevant. According to him, “The DPP authorities’ stubborn adherence to the ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist stance is the greatest real threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”
And if the Chinese Communist Party is crazy enough to go to war in the Taiwan Strait, besides the political purpose, another purpose should be to divert the domestic conflicts, especially the social instability caused by the serious economic decline. How bad mainland China’s economy is is evident from an article published on March 2 by Ren Zeping, formerly of the Political Research Office of the State Council and now director of the Evergrande Institute of Economic Research and chief economist of Founder Securities, “The economic recovery is slowing at the margin and stagflation is coming”. The so-called stagflation is the phenomenon that economic growth is stagnant but unemployment and Inflation continue to rise, which is the inevitable result of the Chinese Communist Party’s maladministration and the indiscriminate issuance of money for more than 30 years, and the Chinese Communist Party will open the knife to ordinary people after harvesting the leeks of private enterprises, i.e. the real estate bubble is very likely to be blown.
As for Xu Qiliang’s belief that mainland China will soon overtake the United States as an economic power, I do not know where his data and confidence come from, but I guess it is still a lie given to make the people accept the rationality of increasing military spending.
Xu Qiliang’s words and the Chinese Communist Party’s drastic increase in military spending once again send a warning to the United States and the West that there will be no peace in the world until this evil regime, which poses a serious threat to the world in terms of virus, military, trade, technology, etc., is removed.
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