During the two sessions of the Communist Party of China (CPC), CPPCC Chairman Wang Yang claimed to continue to suppress Taiwan and that the initiative and dominance of the situation in the Taiwan Strait is always on the side of mainland China. Analysis suggests that the key to the situation in the Taiwan Strait and avoiding war lies with the United States.
On March 7, Wang Yang attended the deliberations of the Taiwan delegation at the two sessions of the National People’s Congress (NPC), and in addition to emphasizing his adherence to the “one-China principle” and the “1992 Consensus,” he also said he would curb Taiwan’s separatist activities. The statement was also made by the State Council.
Similar expressions also appeared in the government work report of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on the 5th.
Wang Yang also said that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is still serious and complex, and the risks and challenges should not be underestimated, but the initiative and dominant power is always on the side of mainland China.
Veteran current affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan said that the information revealed from Wang Yang’s words, this statement that the initiative in the Taiwan Strait is on the mainland’s side is an overall judgment of the top echelon of the Communist Party of China and is their consensus.
“This includes several aspects: politically, the significant ideological leftward shift in the world’s major democracies, along with the serious domestic political split in the United States, which is the CCP’s main rival, and the fact that it is difficult to focus on overseas, is a favorable aspect for the CCP.
“Second, economically the CCP has significantly narrowed the gap with the United States, especially Taiwan’s economic dependence on the mainland’s shortcomings manifested through this pineapple trade war.
“Meanwhile, militarily the CCP has completed its regular patrols and reconnaissance of the waters around the Taiwan Strait and is also adding to its military budget, which is expected to further narrow the gap with the U.S. military in the coming years.”
“So Wang Yang’s statement is consistent with Xi Jinping‘s belief that the Time and momentum are on the CCP’s side, that is, the CCP’s top brass believes it has gained a rare period of opportunity to attack Taiwan by force.” He said.
In addition, the Chinese Communist Party suddenly announced a ban on imports of Taiwan’s pineapples before the two sessions, squeezing Taiwan’s economy. A large number of military planes have also been flying around Taiwan frequently for provocation before that, and whether the CCP will attack Taiwan by force has also been one of the world’s concerns. There is a lot of talk about a possible war in the Taiwan Strait.
On March 4, Adm. Philip Davidson, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said that Chinese planes and ships have been flying around Taiwan more frequently lately, suggesting that the U.S. should encourage Taiwan to invest more in its self-defense capabilities and “continue to sell weapons” to Taiwan. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also warned that he is closely watching Beijing‘s “provocative” posture in threatening allies in the region.
According to Tang, the most critical factor in avoiding a war in the Taiwan Strait is not the mainland and Taiwan, but the United States. “The key lies in whether the United States can dare to send troops to confront the Chinese Communist Party when it attacks Taiwan by force. The uncertainty of this answer is the fundamental reason why the Chinese Communist Party has been afraid to act rashly for years despite its superior military power against Taiwan.”
He further elaborated that the Biden administration’s hardened legitimacy and the weakness of the Biden Administration‘s attitude toward the CCP since it took office, especially after Xi’s successful re-election next year, could make this period the highest risk of war in the Taiwan Strait, and that “whether it can be avoided ultimately depends on how well the Biden administration actually acts, not just on its verbal pronouncements. ”
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