The National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China (NBSC) claims that the national fixed asset investment will grow by 2.9% in 2020, but the value is significantly lower than that of 2019, which is actually a recession of 5.9% according to the data it provided. (Photo taken from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China)
According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China, the national total retail sales of consumer goods in 2020 will drop by 3.9% year-on-year, but the amount announced by the reporter is actually a decline of 4.78%; while the national fixed asset investment in 2020, which is reported to grow by 2.9% year-on-year, is found to be a recession of 5.9% after the actual calculation. These two macroeconomic values together account for more than 80% of mainland China’s GDP.
The economy of mainland China is mainly driven by the “troika”, i.e. investment, consumption and exports, and according to other accounts, investment, consumption and industrial value added. GDP is calculated by adding up the values of four sectors: investment, consumption, government spending and net exports. Both investment and consumption are the major components of economic activity.
The Communist Party’s Bureau of Statistics announced in mid-January this year that the national total retail sales of consumer goods for January-December 2020 was 39.2 trillion yuan (RMB, same below), and said it was 3.9% lower than the same period of the previous year. However, compared with the official announcement of 41.16 trillion yuan of total retail sales of social consumer goods nationwide in 2019, the annual decline should be 4.8%. The Statistics Bureau overstated the two-year change by 0.9 percentage points.
And the Statistics Bureau came out with national fixed asset investment data for January-December 2020 at almost the same Time, counting 51.89 trillion yuan, saying it was up 2.9 percent year-on-year. But compared to the official release of 55.15 trillion yuan of national fixed asset investment in 2019, 2020 is significantly lower by 3.26 trillion yuan. Therefore, it should be a 5.9% year-on-year decline, which is overstated by 8.8 percentage points compared to 2.9%.
Communist Party officials announced earlier this year that China’s GDP would be worth 101.6 trillion yuan in 2020, an increase of 2.3%. If the national fixed-asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods figures announced for 2019 and 2020 are true, then the growth rates for the two years are overstated. No revised announcement was made by the CPC Bureau of Statistics before press time, raising questions about the adulteration of China’s economic growth data.
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