For most of the past two centuries, a small segment of the population in Europe and North America has been living in material comfort on cheap and steady supplies from elsewhere. By working to transform China into a middle-class consumer economy, Beijing’s leaders must have known that this would mean doubling global consumption of cars, air conditioners, and wine, but did they anticipate the uproar it would cause in the privileged West?
I recently read an interesting study by a team of scholars at the Stockholm Strain Center about China’s struggle to produce enough fish to supply its increasingly affluent population. Total global production in 2018 was 179 million tons. This scenario will “definitely have an impact on fish supplies and markets in the rest of the world”.
Most Chinese used to live on coarse grains, beans and vegetables. Now they are joining the Western diet. Although China has always been the largest producer and trader of fish, its relationship with fish has changed dramatically. Until recently, most of the fish China imported stayed only briefly. Large processing plants would de-bone and fillet the fish for re-export to wealthy Western countries. But as affluence has increased and urbanization has advanced, the Chinese have significantly changed their food tastes. Their conception of high-quality, safe fish includes wild, marine and imported, especially from places considered clean waters, such as Australia, Norway and North America. The implications of this shift for global fisheries are enormous. Over the past 30 years, the annual marine catch has remained at around 90 million tonnes per year.
Three areas are worth watching in the future: first, the pattern of international fisheries trade is likely to change dramatically. China will continue to be the largest importer of fish and fishmeal, but will retain more of its imports for domestic consumption. Second, China is likely to pursue a “do-it-yourself” strategy to capture a larger share of its catch on the high seas. What does this mean for China’s ambitions to increase its maritime power? Finally, China may invest in fishing production in other countries. This would create local jobs. But the environmental and social impact is still a topic of discussion.
In wealthy Western countries, some secretly hope that the Chinese will remain poor. But not so with the Chinese anymore. Because of its global reach and dynamism, China is critical to unlocking the transformative innovation needed to reshape the global development paradigm.
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