The process of presidential transition of power could be a dangerous time around the world. Especially when the outgoing president denies he is leaving office and fires top U.S. defense officials.
President Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark Esper and several other senior national security officials in the administration. At the Pentagon, he appointed four new senior officials, one of whom was an extremist who had publicly called President Barack Obama a “terrorist leader”. Another hardliner had been inserted into the National Security Agency in the face of opposition from its director, and two senior officials from the Department of Homeland Security (Department of Homeland Security) were also forced to leave.
There are rumors that the purge may continue, with FBI Director Christopher Wray and CIA Director Gina Haspel also being removed from their posts. The president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr. denounced Haspel as a “trained liar” a few days ago.
The new appointments could increase the risk of aggressive action against Iran. And in an already worrisome transition period, such turmoil is sure to undermine our national security.
“Trump essentially axed the civilian leadership responsible for running the Pentagon,” retired Navy Admiral James Stavridis, Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, wrote in an email. “In Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang, they are sure to be high-fiving today.”
He also wrote: “I fear that North Korea or Iran will miscalculate, believing that the U.S. is distracted and unable to respond appropriately to yet another Arabian Gulf tanker seizure, or a new round of long-range ballistic missile tests – something that both countries might do to facilitate their own discussions with the new administration’s gain leverage in the negotiations. Likewise, China may take more aggressive action on Hong Kong or, even worse, on Taiwan, while Russia may entertain the idea of launching a major cyberattack.”
The biggest risk may be in Asia. North Korea still hasn’t proven it has a warhead capable of re-entering Earth’s atmosphere – and Kim Jong-un may think now is the time to show Joe Biden a fait accompli.
North Korea may have learned the lesson that when it’s calm and rational, no one notices, and it’s only rewarded when it threatens to wreak havoc. On the plus side, a negotiated agreement is easier to imagine now than it was a few years ago, and it may be difficult for Republicans to condemn Biden for negotiating with North Korea after Trump’s meeting with Kim Jong Un.
Perhaps most frightening is China’s action against Taiwan. President Xi Jinping may want to signal to the United States and Taiwan that any deepening of relations between the two sides will come at a high price. If that is the case, Xi may prefer to release this signal during the transition period so that Biden is not forced to respond.
The danger is more likely to lie not in a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the mainland, but in smaller-scale actions meant to send a warning to Taiwan: cutting the undersea telecom cables that carry Internet signals to Taiwan, creating blackouts with cyberattacks, blocking tankers in ways that spook investors, sending the stock market down – from Xi’s point of view Come to see that a lesson is to be taught to Taiwan. The conflict could escalate quickly, as Taiwan would want China to pay the price for such bullying.
“Beijing may believe that the time is ripe for action against one of Taiwan’s outer islands, but that would sacrifice the chance for a rapprochement in U.S.-China relations since President-elect Biden came to power,” says Elizabeth Economy, a China expert at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, noting that Beijing should also be aware that any provocation could backfire, leading to closer ties between the United States and Taiwan, plus pressure to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.
A less reassuring sign, Yi noted, is that China has proven willing to sacrifice its broader relationship with India for the border dispute.
As for Iran, most experts believe it will behave well and hope for a fresh start with Biden – unless the Pentagon’s newly appointed hardliners orchestrate some aggressive moves to provoke it. In other words, any dangerous provocations are more likely to originate in Washington than in Tehran.
Another risk is that Israel may see the next two months as its last chance to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities with Washington’s support. The ensuing storm will have repercussions in the region and could prevent Biden from getting Iran back into the nuclear deal.
Robert Malley, president of the International Crisis Group, said a common risk is that governments may be inclined to implement aggressive measures immediately, while the United States has no time for them. For example, Ethiopia’s prime minister has ignited a civil war, and Azerbaijan has begun an offensive against Armenian settlements. There’s no evidence that the timing of either was dictated by events in Washington – but if you’re a dictator, there’s a good opportunity in front of you to go to war.
“Any transition presents foreign policy risks,” says Malley, “but a transition involving Trump would certainly amplify those risks.”
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