China’s National health Commission (NHC) said on Feb. 20 that simply liberalizing the fertility policy will not fully solve the problem of population decline in the northeast. The health care commission said last week that the proposal to “take the lead in fully liberalizing the population in the northeast” was a good reference for the commission’s work, which has led to heated discussions and speculation about liberalizing the birth control. It is clear that the Health and Welfare Commission is trying to clarify its previous statement.
Previously, a deputy to the National People’s Congress put forward a proposal on solving the problem of population decline in the northeast, which mentioned “fully liberalizing the fertility policy in the northeast”. The Health and Welfare Commission replied last week that the proposal was of great reference value to the Commission’s work, saying “the Northeast can explore the local reality, organize experts to conduct research, and conduct in-depth studies to judge the impact of fully liberalizing birth control on local economic growth, social harmony and stability, resource and environmental strategies, and basic public services.”
The response from the Health and Welfare Commission sparked a lively debate in Chinese society, and some saw it as a positive sign. But the Health and Welfare Commission then explained in a statement that the reasons for the long-term population decline in northeast China are multifaceted and cannot be solved by simply liberalizing the fertility policy.
The Health and Welfare Commission added that “the viewpoint of ‘pleading with the state to fully liberalize the restrictions on fertility policy in the northeast’ requires them to do a comprehensive and in-depth study and demonstration. Accordingly, we have communicated with the representatives to discuss.”
“Regarding the speculation on the Internet that ‘fertility restrictions will be liberalized in the Northeast on a pilot basis’ and ‘fertility policy will be fully liberalized’, it is not the intention of the reply.” The statement said.
China has been launching actions in recent years to cope with an aging population, and the communiqué of the fifth meeting of the 18th Communist Party Congress in 2015 even stated that the policy of allowing a couple to have two children would be fully implemented.
But the policy change does not appear to have provided much impetus for China to increase its birth rate. According to China’s Ministry of Public Security, a total of 10.035 million newborns will be born in 2020 and registered with public security organs, a drop of about 15 percent compared to 2019, a figure that is also nearly 680,000 less than the number of applicants for the 2020 college entrance exam.
The rising costs of housing, Education and healthcare in China in recent years, as well as other social issues, have become a stumbling block for many Chinese people having children.
The official China Daily newspaper reported Sunday that the situation is most pronounced in the three eastern provinces, where annual fertility rates are at their lowest levels in both Heilongjiang and Liaoning, leading to a decline in the total population in recent years. The report also said data from provincial governments showed that the number of people living in China’s northeast dropped by 427,000 in 2019 from the previous year to about 108 million.
The total population of the northeastern region declined, reflecting comprehensive and systemic issues such as the regional economic system, industrial structure and social policies, the National Health Commission said. In addition, economic and social factors, among others, have become important factors affecting fertility, and the influence of fertility policy on fertility behavior has greatly diminished.
In an interview with Beijing Daily, Lu Jiehua, professor of sociology at Peking University, said that China’s current cohort size and proportion of people of childbearing age are both declining, and that nationwide restrictions on fertility policies should be liberalized as soon as possible. But even so, the trend of declining fertility rate may not be reversed.
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