The Lukashenko regime in Belarus is facing unprecedented difficulties. It is interesting to see whether China, which has long helped Lukashenko, will step in again to provide him with a blood transfusion this Time. In addition, China’s expanding influence in Belarus, which is considered Russia’s backyard, is in the spotlight as to whether Beijing‘s activities will anger Putin’s regime and how Beijing will interact with Lukashenka.
China launches vaccine diplomacy in Russia’s backyard
100,000 doses of the new crown vaccine supplied by China to Belarus were flown to the capital Minsk on Feb. 19. Local media said the vaccine was supplied by China at no cost. Belarusian health Minister Vladimir Pinevich said that in the future the Chinese vaccine will be organized for local production in Belarus.
Belarus, a Russian ally, has thus become an important stop in China’s push for vaccine diplomacy in the former Soviet Union. However, Belarus implemented registration of the Russian vaccine as early as last December and subsequently launched mass injections. The successive entry of Russian and Chinese vaccines into Belarus reflects the fact that both Moscow and Beijing are using their vaccines in an active diplomatic campaign to expand their respective influence in the Belarusian arena.
Putin steps in to help Lukashenko retain power, but not for free
The arrival of the Chinese vaccine coincides with the departure of Belarusian leader Lukashenko for a visit to Russia. Lukashenko will meet Putin in the Black Sea seaside city of Sochi on Feb. 22. Lukashenko also visited Sochi last year to meet with Putin at the height of popular protests in Belarus and received a $1.5 billion Russian loan.
Some Russian media said that, as in the past, the main purpose of Lukashenko’s visit was to ask for money. But Lukashenko denied reports that his visit to Russia was to seek a $3 billion loan.
Popular demonstrations in Belarus, which began last summer, are now at a low ebb. The key factor behind Lukashenko’s regime not collapsing, as many people and outsiders expected, is believed to be the timely assistance and support from Putin’s regime.
However, many Russian current affairs commentators believe that the Putin regime’s blood transfusion operation will never be free. Lukashenko had to pay a huge price to stay in power. Among the many possible developments in the situation that are now being publicly discussed is a peaceful transfer of power from Lukashenko to a more pro-Russian figure backed by the Kremlin to take his place. Or the issuance of the Russian currency, the ruble, in Belarus, which would also mean that Belarus could lose its financial sovereignty. Then there is getting Lukashenko to agree to a large Russian military presence in Belarus. As relations with the West and Ukraine continue to deteriorate, Russia has been seeking to deploy a large military base in Belarus, both to put more pressure on neighboring NATO member Poland and the Baltic states, and to encircle Ukraine.
In the discussions about the political situation in Belarus, voices have also emerged in Russia about the possibility of annexation of Belarus by Putin’s authorities. This view is that once Belarus forms a new state with Russia, Putin could once again succeed in deflecting domestic discontent and naturally become easier to govern in the long term. Russian officials and the media have packaged these interactions with Belarus as a two-state integration initiative.
Belarusian Society Fears Threat to National Sovereignty
However, there are more concerns in Belarusian society that Belarusian national sovereignty is under serious threat as Lukashenko tries to retain power. Over the past six months or so, many senior Belarusian diplomats have resigned to express their discontent with the Lukashenko regime. The former Chargé d’affaires of Belarus in Switzerland, Mashokovich, is one of them. He recently said that Lukashenko has long had the title of Europe’s last dictator. But in recent years after the Ukraine crisis, Belarus has pursued pluralistic diplomacy and relations with the West have begun to ease. But the crackdown on the population led to renewed Western sanctions against Lukashenka’s regime, and Lukashenka regained his title as Europe’s last dictator.
He believes that any agreement Lukashenko signs with Russia now, or any loan he receives, means that Belarus is further dependent on Russia. Yet Lukashenko has no choice but to stay in power.
China plays a key role
With Lukashenko facing domestic protests, Western sanctions and Moscow’s eye on him, China’s role in Belarus’ political situation is again in the spotlight at this time. China was among the first to congratulate Lukashenko on his presidential election last August, despite protests over serious fraud.
China has long supported Lukashenka’s regime. Especially at a time when many Eastern European countries are currently alienating Beijing, Belarus, located in Central and Eastern Europe, along with Hungary and Serbia in the southern Balkans, are all three countries considered to be China’s main support points on the continent today.
Lukashenko’s use of China’s help will not only counter the West, but also, and more importantly, offset the pressure from Moscow. Belarus received a huge loan from China two or three years ago to pay off its maturing Russian debt in an emergency. But these Chinese moves could also raise Russian hackles, or at least make Russia very concerned.
Is Beijing willing to go out of its way to offend Putin?
The pro-official Russian online media outlet Opinion recently published an article discussing in detail Lukashenko’s quest for Chinese aid and the consequences of bringing in Chinese power to balance Russian pressure. The article also discusses whether China is really willing to step in and whether Beijing is ready to risk offending Moscow.
The report argues that China’s interests in Belarus remain mainly in the economic sphere and that China is not yet a major player in the geopolitical game in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, the scale of Belarusian trade with China is much smaller than both Belarus with Russia, and Belarus with the EU. The report concludes that Lukashenko seems to have no choice but to implement the integration of the two countries along the lines of Putin.
According to Belarusian international relations scholar Shevtsov, neither Belarus nor China are currently willing or able to unite together against the West. And Belarus’ relations with Russia have long been complicated.
The suspicions and contradictions between Belarus and Russia resemble quarrels within a Family, Shevtsov said. China’s activities in Belarus have been cautious, and Chinese forces have exerted limited influence between Belarus and Russia.
Shevtsov: “China has been reluctant to get involved in these conflicts and contradictions. As far as I remember, not once in these decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union has China used Belarus to pressure Russia.”
Belarus’ relations with China are still primarily economic, Shevtsov said. But he acknowledged that China’s Confucius Institute is active in Belarus. Both countries are pushing hard for a number of Chinese investment projects in Belarus.
Chinese influence continues to grow
But observers note that China’s influence in Belarus is still quietly expanding. Chinese has begun to be taught in Belarusian primary and secondary schools. Chinese signage has also appeared at the capital’s Minsk International Airport.
Lukashenko and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke by phone in late January. A little more than a week ago, at the 6th All-Belarusian National Assembly, Lukashenko specifically juxtaposed China with Russia when describing Belarus’ internal and foreign policy. Both countries are strategic partners of Belarus, he said, and not only in economic terms.
Some Belarusian observers noted in particular that the Chinese ambassador did not attend the National Assembly, despite the fact that the Belarusian Foreign Ministry sent invitations to all heads of foreign missions in Minsk. Some analysts believe that Belarus’ relations with not only the West but also with neighboring Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine have deteriorated, and that the Chinese ambassador’s absence may be linked to a desire not to get involved in Lukashenka’s tirades against these neighbors and the West.
Belarusian Prime Minister Leonid Glovchenko said a few days ago that Belarus does not care about the lack of loans from the West and does not need them. He said Belarus could get loans from Russia and China, or from other Asian countries.
Recent Comments