The first trading day of the A-share year of the Ox, Guizhou Maotai opened high and low, the share price plunged 5%, the market value of the day evaporated nearly 100 billion, and hit the biggest drop since July 2020.
On Thursday (Feb. 18), the first trading day of the year of the yellow calendar Xinchu, the three major A-share indices opened higher and lower, the liquor sector was sharply lower, and by the close of trading, Guizhou Maotai fell heavily by 5%, its share price fell below 2,500 yuan, closing at 2,471 yuan per share, with a total market value of 3.1 trillion yuan, evaporating nearly 100 billion compared with the previous trading day.
Driven by Guizhou Maotai, liquor stocks collectively opened higher and lower, Shunxin Agriculture fell, Luzhou Laojiao, Shuijingfang, Jinshiyuan, etc. fell more than 6%.
According to the Times Finance reported on February 18, Ouyang Qianli, a researcher in the liquor industry, analyzed that Maotai plunged 5% and did not rule out the possibility of further declines in the future. For some investors, the peak season of the Yellow New Year has passed, and the positive wine industry will disappear for some Time, so they choose to sell their stocks.
Before the Chinese New Year, Guizhou Maotai shares soared all the way to 2,600 yuan, and its market value stood at 3 trillion. However, on February 10 (Wednesday), the closing day of the A-share year of the yellow calendar Gengzi, the market called “smart money” northward capital (foreign capital) all day counter trend net selling 1.78 billion yuan, of which, Guizhou Maotai by foreign net selling of 1.295 billion yuan.
Some market participants said that in the fourth quarter of 2020 northward capital (foreign capital) has shown a defensive style of “selling consumption, switching into chemicals and banks”, in Guizhou Maotai valuation high moment, a significant reduction in positions of hedging operations may occur.
Since the New Year, Guizhou Maotai’s institutional target price has gone all the way up from 2,200 yuan to 3,000 yuan. In January, the latest position data from the world’s largest Maotai holding fund, Europacific GrowthFund, showed that it reduced its holdings of Guizhou Maotai by about 450,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2020. The value of the reduced shares is about 700-800 million yuan.
The latest data shows that UBS (Luxembourg) Equity Fund – China Opportunity Fund, a subsidiary of UBS, also reduced its holdings in Maotai. As of the end of January, Guizhou Maotai was the fund’s fifth-largest long position, with a market value of $816 million held by the fund. Compared with the end of 2020, the fund’s holdings in Guizhou Maotai decreased by 3.66%.
Behind the fund’s reduced holdings, Guizhou Maotai’s earnings growth rate has slowed. 2019 Guizhou Maotai ultimately achieved a net profit growth rate of 17.05% attributable to the mother, narrowing by nearly half compared to 30% in 2018. Nearly half-year institutional forecast data show that Guizhou Maotai 2020 will achieve a growth of 11.56% in net profit attributable to the mother, earnings will be further narrowed.
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