The Biden administration is being watched to see how it will handle the U.S.-China relationship.
Since the outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war, the U.S. government has argued that it should “decouple” from the Chinese Communist Party and has taken related measures. with the COVID19 Epidemic hitting the economy hard, all sectors are concerned about how the Biden Administration will handle U.S.-China relations, and the U.S. National Chamber of Commerce released a report on Feb. 17 offering strategies.
The report released by the U.S. National Chamber of Commerce is titled “Understanding Decoupling: Macro Trends and Industry Implications”. The report explores the possibility of a comprehensive U.S.-China decoupling in four areas: trade, investment, people-to-people exchanges and R&D activities.
The report was commissioned by the U.S. National Chamber of Commerce and produced by the Rhodium Group, a leading U.S. economic research firm. Daniel Rosen, president of Rhodium Group and one of the authors of the report, said in a press release that the study, which began in late 2019, was conducted because of the rampant talk of a U.S.-China decoupling, so they wanted to include data to calculate the cost of decoupling for the U.S. and make the discussion of decoupling more rational and objective.
The AmCham report also focuses on the consequences of a full decoupling from China in four key industries: aviation, semiconductors, chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
The report concludes that it is not recommended to pin the U.S. on a full decoupling from China, and that a targeted partial decoupling from China would better protect U.S. interests. However, Rong Dan Nie also specifically pointed out at the press conference that the report is purely from a business perspective and does not take national security into account, while any good strategy should certainly include consideration of national security.
In the case of the semiconductor industry, for example, it is important to maintain the U.S. leadership in semiconductor technology, especially in the face of the Beijing authorities’ policy of civil-military integration in technology and their ambition to lead the world in advanced technology.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump (Trump) has said that decoupling is an interesting word, and that the U.S. would not lose out if China and the U.S. really stopped doing business.
After restricting U.S. companies from supplying Chinese telecom equipment maker huawei in 2019 due to national security concerns, the Trump Administration further escalated its semiconductor ban against Huawei in May 2020, restricting equipment that uses U.S. technology to produce OEMs for Huawei chips.In August 2020, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced a new round of bans on Huawei, fully restricting Huawei from from sourcing chips from third parties, including those manufactured by foreign companies but using U.S. software or technology.
In 2017, the U.S. National Chamber of Commerce and European chambers of commerce warned that the “Made in China 2025” strategy showed that Beijing authorities were trying to push U.S. and European competitors out of the global market through subsidies and other means. Later, this concern became a key component of the Trump administration’s trade war with China.
On January 25, Chinese Communist Party President Xi Jinping attended the World Economic Forum by video and gave a shout-out to new U.S. President Joe Biden during his speech. the direction of U.S.-China relations has raised world concerns amid the COVID19 epidemic that has hit the economy hard.
According to a video released by China’s official media CCTV, Xi said the epidemic is now far from over and the fight against it continues, “but we firmly believe that the cold winter cannot stop the spring, and the dark night cannot obscure the dawn. Humanity will be able to overcome the epidemic and grow and progress and be reborn in the struggle with the disaster.”
Xi Jinping said, “Engaging in ‘small circles’ and ‘new cold war’ at the international level, excluding, threatening and intimidating others, engaging in de-linking, cutting off supplies and sanctions at every turn, artificially causing mutual isolation or even isolation, can only push the world towards division and even confrontation.”
Lu Xiuyuan, a researcher at the independent think tank Tianjun Political Economy, believes that the current U.S. diplomatic strategy is still a continuation of the policy under the Trump administration. From Biden’s previous statements, he is more respectful of multilateralism. Then it is necessary to seek the agreement of allies such as the European Union and Canada before a complete foreign policy can be formulated. In recent days, Chinese military aircraft have repeatedly exerted pressure on Taiwan, and Beijing authorities are testing Biden’s willingness to implement or maintain the Trump administration’s “Indo-Pacific strategy” and fulfill its commitments to allies.
In addition, the spread of the COVID19 epidemic also affects the direction of U.S.-China relations. 2020, the sudden outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan has triggered not only a global public health crisis, but also posed serious challenges to various economic and social sectors.
Ren Chongdao, a researcher at Tianjun Political Economy, pointed out that the negative impact of the COVID19 epidemic will be fully revealed this year, and the economic situation will be even worse. Previously, in the process of economic globalization, all countries have actively or passively participated in it, and no one can be alone in such an irresistible factor as the epidemic. The Biden administration’s policy focuses on the domestic epidemic and the economy, and if not handled well, it will lead to a backlash in domestic public opinion.
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