China has fully implemented its “two-child policy” since 2016, but the results have been less than ideal. The latest figures from the Ministry of Public Security show that the number of newborns in the country fell by 15 percent last year to 10 million, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. Analysts say that if the situation continues, China is likely to fall into the predicament of “getting old before getting rich”.
Public opinion is concerned that China’s fertility rate has fallen below alarming levels. Last year’s newborn population plunged 15 percent year-on-year amid the outbreak of the new coronavirus, and was the fourth consecutive year of decline in the number of newborns since China opened its “two-child policy” in 2016, reflecting the policy’s failure to effectively encourage fertility.
Ms. Liang, a resident of Jiangmen City, Guangdong Province, works in the catering industry. Although she is over 30, she has not yet considered Marriage. In an interview with the Voice of America, she said social factors such as the high cost of Education make her apprehensive about having children.
Ms. Liang said, “The tuition fee is usually at least a dozen subjects a semester down, and the elementary school now change their uniforms twice a semester down, with two sets, and four sets of uniforms a year down. The unseen is the donation. With the Epidemic, the school asks Parents to donate. The worst part is that the teachers will compare their advances to see who has donated more than who. (Some children) are poorer at Home, but he also does not want to lag behind, so it causes a shadow in the child’s heart”
Miss Liang is busy at home on a daily basis taking care of her brother’s five-year-old son. She said expenses for her nephew’s education and medical care add up to thousands of yuan a month.
Ms. Liang said, “Now go into the hospital even if you register for an outpatient. Each doctor’s registration fee is different, some doctors do not have to pay for registration, some ten dollars, some registration for a number to thousands of dollars. The drugs he prescribes for you are not reimbursed (insurance). He will tell you what Medicine is good to use. Nowadays, if parents are nervous about their children, he doesn’t care what medicine you use, you just use it anyway. From a parent’s point of view, it is definitely better to hang on to a better doctor.
The high cost of housing affects plans to have children
She said that many of her friends around her to work in a different place and give up on having children.
Ms. Liang said: “urban people are reluctant to give birth because property prices are too expensive, rural areas are reluctant to give birth (because) now there is basically no land in the countryside. There is only one way to have a child: the couple must work outside. It is not safe to leave the child at home. Foreign students are not accepted in other places. The public schools won’t even let you in. That’s the problem.”
Miss Liang said that some friends couples could not give up their jobs and had to leave their children at their place of origin.
Miss Liang said, “Again, it’s Guangdong Province. Parents work in Guangzhou, children in the countryside, you want to bring the children there is not possible. There are no places for you there, even if you have money to buy them. Forced parents have to leave their children at home as ‘left-behind children’, but also do not feel comfortable to the elderly with ah.”
The Chinese Communist Party‘s Ministry of Public Security recently announced that a total of 10,035,000 babies were born and completed household registration last year, with 52.7 percent male babies and 47.3 percent female babies.
Birth figures in all major Chinese cities are trending down significantly, with individual cities such as Taizhou in Zhejiang and Guiyang in Guizhou seeing the number of newborns plummet by more than 30 percent.
In the past, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) would usually publish annual population data in January through the annual China Economic Data Report, but this year’s report did not mention the number of newborns in China in 2020, causing speculation.
According to Yuan Xin, a professor at Nankai University’s Institute of Population and Development, who was interviewed by the Voice of America, the speculation is unfounded.
It’s a very simple truth,” Yuan said. Why is there no talk about population in this year’s ‘economic development situation’? It’s simple. We have the seventh census year in 2020. The basic summary data of the census is not yet available.”
Academics: 14 million births last year
Although the National Bureau of Statistics will not release the latest birth figures until April at the earliest, Yuan Xin said he already had it in mind.
Yuan Xin said: “The figures of the Bureau of Statistics will be slightly higher than those of the Ministry of Public Security. Because after all, there are some people born without reporting, in the census will have a more accurate control. According to my experience, I think the number of births in 2020 will be around 14 million. It can’t fall from 14 million in the previous year to 10.03 million as the Ministry of Public Security said. It is absolutely impossible.”
He stressed that the figures announced by the Ministry of Public Security can only be used as a reference.
The Ministry of Public Security said, “It’s very simple. 2020 was such a serious epidemic, everyone was covered at home, many authorities were not working, there were many people who did not report to the household registration, and the household registration is not that important for a child now. I reported a few months later, or even a year or two later, there is no problem.
It has been five years since the implementation of the “two-child policy”. The effect of the policy has long since come to an end, according to Yuan Xin.
Even if the fertility rate does not drop significantly, or if the fertility rate remains unchanged, the annual decrease in the number of births is already a demographic rule,” said Yuan. The number of women of childbearing age is decreasing. If the fertility rate remains at the same level, the number of births decreases as a rule and cannot be changed. The implementation of the two-child policy has proven a rule: you can’t stimulate people to have more children by relying on fertility policies. It has created an environment of fewer births. Let’s say our income levels are improving, women’s education levels, women’s employment status are improving.”
China, which has the world’s largest population, topping 1.4 billion in 2019, once implemented a “one-child policy” since 1979 to force women to have birth control and abortions because of its overpopulation, but in recent years the problem of an aging population has become increasingly serious, with 250 million people aged 60 or older, accounting for 18 percent of the population last year.
The decrease in the labor force population is difficult for economic development in terms of labor supply, but from another perspective, the quality of the labor force is improving,” Hara said. The population with general higher education or above has reached over 200 million in China, accounting for about 15% of the total population, which can partially compensate for the declining labor force. From the point of view of consumption, the post-60s become the elderly population, and the post-70s and post-80s become the elderly population afterwards. He is more capable of consumption than the post-50s, post-40s and post-30s.”
CPPCC member calls for the abolition of birth restrictions
Economist Ren Zeping, a former think tank at China’s State Council Development Research Center, published a report last year arguing that the State Council had overestimated the impact of the comprehensive “two-child policy” on the fertility rate, which is expected to rise from the current 12.6 percent to more than 20 percent of the population aged 65 or older by 2033, marking China’s entry into a The “super aging society”.
Ren Zeping predicts that China’s population will fall into negative growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, starting this year at the earliest, and that the population will shrink sharply starting around 2050, dropping to less than 800 million in 2100.
Some studies have also estimated that in 30 years, the proportion of people over 60 will rise to one-third of China’s population, causing shocking damage to the economy, threatening the workforce, undermining productivity, and driving up labor and health care costs.
Huang Wenzheng, a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference who has long been concerned about China’s population issues, told VOA that these views are not alarmist.
I think this is one of the biggest crises in China in the next few decades, and it will have a very negative impact on the overall economic development, first of all, it will affect consumption, because there are fewer and fewer young people, fewer and fewer people buying houses and cars, and more and more elderly people, which means that the whole society is paying less and less taxes and spending more and more on public inputs,” Huang said. “
According to Huang, promoting the opening of the “third child” may send the wrong message that China should maintain Family planning. He called for the removal of all restrictions and the encouragement of childbirth.
Two-child policy lacks support
Speaking to the Voice of America, the Australian-based finance scholar Commander said the lack of support measures is a key factor in the failure of the “two-child policy” to create a fertility boom since its implementation.
If China wants its population to grow by more than a certain percentage, say 5 per 1,000, if it reaches that level, the level of follow-up of social services, including social insurance and medical coverage for childbirth, can be increased by 5 per 1,000 compared to the original level in order to roughly form supporting measures, but it is obvious that the Chinese government has not achieved this guarantee. “
Some analysts believe that the Chinese people are carrying heavy pressure of Life. If you can implement “free medical care, free pension, free compulsory education”, more Chinese people may be willing to have children.
The academic commander questioned whether the idea, commonly known as “three free”, could be implemented.
The commander said, “On the one hand, China’s economic growth is weakening in the past few years, and the rate of accumulation of economic aggregates is slowing down. In terms of fiscal revenue, the growth of the social security fund is far from keeping up. Especially since Xi Jinping came to power with a double-cycle strategy, many policies are not really for the sake of the people.”
In addition to the relaxation of the “one-child policy” from 2016, China has introduced a 30-day divorce cooling-off period since this year, hoping to reduce the number of impulsive divorces and maintain family stability in order to create an environment conducive to the growth of children.
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