Russian President Vladimir Putin (second from right) and Defense Minister Shoigu (third from right) watch the “East-2018” strategic military exercises at the Russian training ground in Chugor, near the Chinese border. (Sept. 13, 2018) Russian President Vladimir Putin (2nd R) and Defense Minister Shoigu (3rd R) watch the “East-2018” strategic military exercises at the Russian training ground in Chugor, near the Chinese border. (Sept. 13, 2018)
As the EU mulls renewed sanctions against Russia, Moscow has also been issuing warnings to cut ties with the EU at all costs. Some analysts believe that the Putin administration has its own strategic calculations behind its tough and brutal moves against the EU. In addition, the deteriorating relations with the West have prompted Russia to continue playing the China card.
Calls for sanctions against Russia rise
The Estonian parliament adopted a resolution on February 16 calling on the EU to adopt a unified foreign policy to defend Russian civil liberties and impose tougher sanctions on Putin’s authorities. The resolution calls on Russia to comply with its obligations to defend democracy and the rule of law as it pledged to do when it joined the Council of Europe in 1996, and to release all political prisoners and arrested persons, including opposition leader Navalny.
The chairman of the Estonian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Mihkrisson, said Russia’s use of persecution has led to a sharp increase in the number of political prisoners in recent weeks, which undoubtedly has an impact on neighboring Estonia’s national security.
The resolution also calls on the EU to review the recent visit to Moscow by High Representative for European Foreign and Security Policy Borelli.
Threats to cut off relations at all costs brash tone rare
As a member of the EU, the Estonian parliament’s move comes at a Time of escalating tensions between Russia and the EU. Just a day earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov repeated Russia’s threat to cut off relations with the EU when he met with Finland’s foreign minister. He warned that Russia has few diplomatic ties left with the EU and that Moscow is ready for any outcome of bilateral relations. But Lavrov also added that the EU should not be confused with Europe. Breaking off relations with the EU does not mean that Russia will leave Europe, because Russia still has many supporters and friends in Europe.
Lavrov said earlier that Russia would not hesitate to cut ties with the EU if it insists on imposing a new round of large-scale sanctions on Russia.
Many Russian current affairs commentators believe that such a tough tone is very rare and not at all like the diplomatic experience of Lavrov. Such brash language, which usually comes from military generals in the past, shows the extent of today’s diplomatic crisis between Russia and the EU.
Deliberate humiliation of the EU does not care about deteriorating relations
In preparation for the upcoming meeting of EU foreign ministers and heads of state, High Representative for European Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrelli visited Moscow in early February, the first visit of a senior EU diplomat to Russia since 2017. During Borrelli’s visit, not only did he fail to meet with jailed opposition leader Navalny, but Russia even announced the expulsion of three diplomats from EU member states for their involvement in the demonstrations. In addition, during the negotiations Russia showed Borrelli videos of EU riot police dealing with demonstrators and tried to reprimand Borrelli for not interfering with the issue of popular demonstrations in Russia.
Some Russian politicians say that there are different ways and options between countries when it comes to expelling spies or diplomats. Sometimes the expulsions are low-key, covert or not publicized in order not to damage or affect bilateral relations. But Russia’s choice to expel diplomats in a high-profile manner during the visit of one of the negotiating parties, in addition to trying to humiliate the EU, shows that Moscow no longer cares about bilateral relations.
After Borrelli’s visit to Russia, some members of the European Parliament called for his resignation. Many Russian opposition figures even criticized the West for trying to make peace with the dictator. Milov, a prominent opposition figure and former Russian deputy energy minister, said Borrelli’s visit to Russia reminded him of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s visit to Munich to meet Hitler on the eve of World War II, when he was promoting appeasement.
New round of sanctions may hit Russia hard
The European Union and the United States have imposed dozens of various sanctions on Russia in the wake of the 2014 Ukraine crisis. Many economists argue that while the Russian economy is thought to have adapted to these sanctions and that they have not collapsed the Russian economy, they have de-energized the economy, costing the Russian economy about two percentage points of growth per year as a result.
The new round of sanctions is the Western world’s response to the arrest of opposition leader Vladimir Navalny by Putin’s authorities and the promotion of a repressive persecution campaign at Home. EU foreign ministers will meet to discuss this on Feb. 22, followed by a summit of EU heads of state in March to discuss policy toward Russia.
The sanctions package being promoted and lobbied by Russian opposition figures covers three areas: plutocrats around Putin, senior security officials and heads of official media responsible for propaganda, in addition to the families of these individuals.
Russian strategy: divide EU to ease sanctions and keep out of domestic affairs
According to political scientist Suslov, Russia wants to achieve two goals with this stance toward the EU. One is to influence and pressure the EU countries such as Germany and France, which advocate dialogue with Russia, in order to reduce the level of sanctions. The second is that Moscow wants to draw a red line against the EU and try to keep the EU out of the opposition leader Navalny issue.
There are long-standing differences within the EU on its position toward Russia. Countries such as Poland and the Baltics, which have a history of enslavement by Moscow, have a strong stance, but Germany, France and southern European countries have a more moderate position.
Russia is currently the EU’s fifth largest trading partner after China, the United States, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. In the first 10 months of last year, the scale of trade with the EU was able to account for close to 40% of Russia’s foreign trade. Germany is Russia’s second largest trading country after China. The EU is also Russia’s top trading partner. The German and French business communities have long had significant interests in the Russian market.
According to Markov, a pro-official political scientist, the oil and gas trade between Russia and the EU, as well as the large number of middle-class people from Moscow, St. Petersburg and other large Russian cities who travel to the EU on vacation every year, are two areas that will not be affected by the change in relations between the two sides.
The China card will continue to be useful in the long run in the face of hostility with the West
Other international scholars believe that the crisis in relations with the EU reflects the deterioration of Russia’s overall relations with the West and therefore pushes Russia to continue playing the China card against the West. At the same time, there has been some recent discussion in the Russian media emphasizing that Russia should further strengthen its ties and trade with China and other Asian countries and reduce its dependence on the EU.
Scholar Boyko said Russia has announced a diplomatic shift to the East, a policy that is continuing with no change in sight. On the other hand, it is true that the Kremlin is increasingly losing patience with the West and that the slump in bilateral relations will be prolonged.
Boyko: “While Russia must not deal with the West, Russia’s position toward the West is becoming clearer. Russia believes that the West is to blame for today’s situation because it wants to isolate Russia, and sanctions are endless, thus damaging relations.”
Russia and Europe are drifting apart with increasingly different values
Some Russian diplomatic analysts believe that the Russian power elite has long viewed the EU as a bureaucracy that works by regulations and lacks flexibility. As a result, traditional Russian European diplomacy used to prefer to bypass the EU and instead talk and strike deals with the leaders of the more powerful individual EU member states.
The predecessors of the EU were the European Community and the European Economic Community, and further back, the European Coal and Steel Community, which was formed in the 1950s. After the end of World War II, Germany and France formed the European Coal and Steel Community to learn the lessons of the bloody slaughter on the continent and to share the strategic resources that had triggered the war, with the aim of promoting peace and advancing European integration.
Some analysts believe that Russia-Europe relations are now in crisis, Putin led Russia is not only drifting away from the European continent, but also more difficult to eliminate the growing number of European countries on the fear of threats from Russia.
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