According to an article in Le Monde, the declining number of births in China and the increasing Life expectancy of Chinese people have left the country’s pension system in a situation where it is bursting at the seams at the slightest. Aware of the problem, the Chinese government is preparing for a delay in the retirement age.
The article writes, “Will Chinese life expectancy surpass that of the United States for the first Time in 2020? In this regard, although there are no firm figures yet, the assumption is real. According to the National health Commission, life expectancy in China will be 77.3 years in 2019 and may reach 77.6 years in 2020. Meanwhile, life expectancy in the United States is 78.6 years in 2019. According to estimates released in January by researchers at the National Academy of Sciences, life expectancy for Americans drops by 1.13 percentage points in 2020 due to the new crown Epidemic.
Thus, life expectancy between Chinese and Americans is now almost the same, while in 1980 the difference between life expectancy in China and the U.S. was seven years, and in 2000 the difference between life expectancy in China and the U.S. narrowed to 2.5 years. According to the World Health Organization, since 2016, the Chinese have lived a longer number of years in good health than the Americans.
However, the article points out that behind the increase in Chinese life expectancy, there is another fact that needs to be seen, and that is: the number of births in China continues to decline. According to the Chinese Communist Party‘s Ministry of Public Security, China will register only 10 million newborns in 2020. Typically, 80 percent of newborns go to the government to be registered. China’s 2020 birth figures will be released in April, and the number is now believed to be around 12.5 million. Despite the fact that the Chinese government has allowed people to have two children since 2016, there has not been a baby boom in China, the fact is that quite the opposite is true, the number of births is continuing to decline.
The number of newborns in China was 17.86 million in 2016, 15.23 million in 2018, and probably less than 13 million in 2020. Is this due to the epidemic? Experts are very cautious about this. Liang Jianzhang, an economist at Peking University, said, “China has fallen into a low-fertility trap.”
He said that “although the number of births in 2020 is the lowest in recent decades, it should be the highest in the coming decades” because housing costs as well as the cost of raising children are the main reasons why young Chinese couples continue to have only one child.
The article in Le Monde also notes that there are currently 254 million Chinese over the age of 60, a figure that will jump to 400 million in 2033 and 487 million in 2053. At the same time, China’s total population will decrease, so that by mid-century, people over 60 will make up more than a third of the population, compared to less than 18 percent today.
What is foreseeable in the future is that wages will rise, productivity will fall and personal services will develop …… An economist (Alicia Garcia-Herrero) from a leading international bank (Natixis) stated in December 2020 in the online magazine Asia Times that “Due to the size of the Chinese economy, the aging of China concerns not only China but the whole world.”
According to official reports, China’s current pension system could be in a “bankrupt” situation by 2035. That’s not to mention the fate of thousands of couriers, cab drivers and domestic workers who have little or no social security.
The article published by Le Monde also indicates that the Chinese government, aware of the problem, is preparing to postpone the retirement age. Xinhua announced back in November 2020 that “authorities will gradually postpone the retirement age.” The decision in question will be announced as early as this spring. But the issue is a sensitive one: many workers believe they have the right to retire and receive a pension at age 60. Like in democracies, pension reform will test the Chinese government’s ability to do so.
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