At 00:45 on Friday morning, Fed Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Pele attended the ECB forum, and the three heavyweights released pessimistic signals, followed by U.S. and European stocks all closed down.
At the central bank forum, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell first evaluated the current economic situation, which said.
“The current situation in the U.S. economy is not the worst-case scenario we feared, congressional initiatives targeting the economy since the economic crisis have been useful and timely, and banks have fared well in this crisis.”
Recent U.S. economic data shows a positive recovery, especially on the employment front.Non-farm payrolls grew better than Wall Street expected in October, with about 12 million workers returning to work. The U.S. Labor Department said Thursday that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since March.
But some economists fear that growth could slow with the recent spike in new crown cases and state restrictions on business and personal activity. At the forum, Powell also warned that this is no time for complacency, that the recovery, while faster than expected, is uneven and that income disparities are hampering the U.S. economy.
Powell also noted that the long-term damage to the economy from the epidemic is worrisome, with the suppression of long-term production capacity from the epidemic being the most worrisome. The impact of the epidemic on the economic recovery is expected to increase afterwards, and the next few months will be challenging, with Congress and the Federal Reserve likely to need to take additional measures.
In addition, for the recent good news from the new crown vaccine, Powell gave a response, which said that the progress of the new crown vaccine announced by Pfizer this week is “undoubtedly good news, worth celebrating”, although it is too early to assess the impact of the vaccine news on the economy.
Powell’s cautious approach to vaccines was echoed at the forum by Bank of England Governor Pele and European Central Bank President Lagarde. Lagarde said at the forum, although the vaccine has reduced uncertainty, but do not want to be too optimistic about the progress of the vaccine. Bailey, on the other hand, said it was “encouraging news,” but “we’re not there yet.” The comments of the three central bankers, for the recent market encouraged by the vaccine news, is undoubtedly poured a pot of cold water.
In the epidemic crisis, although the economy has been hit, but also spawned some new market opportunities. In response, Powell stated.
“The economy is not going to go back to what it once was because the crisis has accelerated many of the pre-existing technological developments, and automation and telecommuting will accelerate.”
However, Powell also noted that the economy is now recovering towards more technology, but that the trend towards automation and home-based job growth is adding to the challenges facing the economy, which could make it more difficult for some workers, and it is expected that low-income workers could still face economic challenges after the end of the epidemic crisis, which means policymakers will have to be more accommodative.
Notably, Powell also mentioned digital currencies, stating that the Federal Reserve is working to assess the costs and advantages of digital currencies, but has not yet made a decision on them. On this topic, ECB President Lagarde said that the future is likely to move toward a digital euro, and my hunch is that a central bank digital currency will eventually be issued. Governor Bailey of the Bank of England also responded by saying that a central bank digital currency may be issued within the next decade, but there is still a lot of work to be done.
Finally, it should be noted that the prospect of a divided US government has cooled expectations for more aggressive fiscal stimulus as the election smoke still hangs over the economy, and finally the Federal Reserve may have to adjust its bond-buying program in the coming months in order to provide further support to the economy.
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