Hot Quotes】
Spot Gold rose and then fell, oscillating higher from $1810 at the beginning of the week, but still stopped at resistance above $1850, giving back all the week’s gains in the last two trading days, and is expected to close negative again this week.
Spot silver was also flat this week, roughly boxing in the 26.60-27.70 range, with a possible fourth negative weekly take down.
The best performer in the precious metals market this week was platinum, which touched $1,270 during the week, breaking above a six-year high. Chicagoland and the initial margin for NYMEX platinum futures was raised from $4,400 per hand to $4,840 per hand, an increase of 10%.
More eye-catching this week than the gold and silver markets was bitcoin. On Monday, news that tesla had bought $1.5 billion in bitcoin pushed the cryptocurrency to record highs, followed by a pullback in bitcoin. Bitcoin surged again on Thursday, soaring 7% at one point, and on Friday morning it broke the $49,000 barrier, renewing its all-Time high.
In the oil market, after a week of violent rallies, the two oils took a break from their gains this week, with the overall trend remaining at high levels. Brent crude broke the $60 mark on Monday, hitting a 52-week high of $61.67, but continued lower over the next three trading days, giving back most of the week’s gains. The three Crude Oil reports released during the week were lackluster, fueling market concerns about the crude oil aftermath.
In the currency market, the dollar showed declines this week after a strong rally in the previous week, hitting a low of 90.25 during the week, a new half-month low. Most non-U.S. currencies shocked higher, with the pound breaking the 1.38 barrier and once reaching a three-year high.
U.S. stocks remained lively this week, with market frenzy unabated. On Thursday, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 slightly hit record high closes. Over the past 20 days, the average daily volume of stocks traded on all U.S. exchanges reached 15.8 billion shares, close to the 10-year peak of 16.1 billion shares set on March 25 last year.
Hong Kong stocks and A-shares also performed well this week, driven by the Chinese New Year holiday. on Feb. 10, the last trading day of the Year of the Rat, the GEM index broke through the previous high and the SZSC index stood at 16,000 points intraday. This week, Hong Kong stocks rose by more than 3%, and on Thursday once returned to 30,000 points.
[Weekly Events
①1.9 trillion dollars stimulus bill into the speedy approval channel, the House of Representatives has drafted
This week, the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill also had a new development. On Tuesday, U.S. House Democrats released the first draft text of key elements of the Epidemic relief bill. House Majority Leader Hoyer said the House will vote on the stimulus bill on Feb. 22.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and his colleagues expect the size of the new U.S. stimulus package is expected to reach $1.5 trillion, up from a previous forecast of $1.1 trillion.
However, the huge stimulus bill is bound to add significantly to the U.S. fiscal burden. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Thursday that the federal budget deficit is expected to reach $2.3 trillion by fiscal year 2021, a level that would still be the second highest in U.S. history. The amount does not yet include the $1.9 trillion proposed by President Joe Biden to spend on anti-epidemic relief, as the final size of the program has not yet been determined.
②In addition to Tesla, these big players are also starting to lay out bitcoin
This week’s news of Tesla’s bitcoin buying ignited the market, followed by several institutions showing interest in bitcoin.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said Monday that he is working on a resolution to include bitcoin on the city’s balance sheet.
Twitter is considering whether to include bitcoin on its balance sheet, said Ned Segal, the company’s CFO.
Global payments giant Mastercard announced on Feb. 10 that it plans to support certain digital currencies on its network later this year.
On Thursday, Bank of New York Mellon will hold and transfer bitcoin and issue other cryptocurrencies on behalf of its asset management clients, according to the Wall Street Journal.
JPMorgan Chase co-president Pinto told employees that he is open to bitcoin.
However, most top banks still shun cryptocurrencies, with none of the top six U.S. banks yet offering an interface for their own clients. On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen discussed the challenges of fighting fraud and money laundering, among other issues.
③ Biden may nominate new Fed governor, will the hawk-dove pattern change?
Beijing time on Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter, Michigan State University economist Lisa Cook has the support of several key White House officials and allies outside the administration, and may become the nominee of President Joe Biden to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Some people began to worry about the four years under Biden, Powell’s second term or can not be re-elected, but more analysts believe that Powell and Biden’s goals are the same, after all focus on economic recovery above, so Powell’s “official hat” can be preserved for the time being.
On Wednesday, Powell spoke at an online event at the Economic Club of New York, where he was pessimistic about the employment situation in the United States and said that continued strong policy support is needed to address the many problems workers still face.
④ Inflation trade is hot and rate hike expectations are quietly heating up
With the stimulus bill expected to heat up, inflation trading has become hot, while at the same time, traders have begun to bet on the arrival of interest rate hikes.
The futures market is betting that the Fed will raise rates in late 2023; the fastest rate hike is likely to come from the New Zealand Fed, which traders expect to raise rates in late 2022; and the Australian Fed will raise rates in 2024.
In Japan, however, further rate cuts are already being priced in. The Bank of Japan is reportedly still considering how to convey the message of its ability to cut rates.
⑤ F13 report out, many institutions prefer technology stocks
A few days ago, the world’s largest custodian BlackRock has taken the lead in releasing its F13 report for the fourth quarter of 2020, with a buying binge on Tesla and Azure becoming the focus of attention.
The Swiss central bank apparently also favors technology stocks, the top five total positions subject to monopoly by technology stocks, but the bank’s top five reduced positions subject to Amazon, etc..
Renaissance Fund’s top five long positions are Novo Nordisk, Baidu, Poundland, Verisign and Bristol-Myers Squibb. Baidu and Poundland are both new powerhouses that entered the top five in the fourth quarter.
(6) The retailer target has changed again, but the short-selling war is nearly subsided
Recently retail investors on the Reddit forum began eyeing another target – the U.S. marijuana sector, with marijuana stocks soaring for several days.
Another target for retail investors is junk bonds. On Monday evening local time, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield Bond Index fell below 4% for the first time, the sixth consecutive session of decline, falling as low as 3.96%. The huge junk bond market has become extremely hot after retail investors stepped in.
In addition, the U.S. Treasury market has also seen anomalies this week, with the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield touching a record low of 0.0972% during the European session on Thursday BST. Some insiders believe that given the actual outlook for the U.S. economy, there is limited room for U.S. bond yields to rise.
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