The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will be held in the fall of 2022, and Xi Jinping‘s re-election will be the big political event. His third term (2023-2028) will formally break the tradition since Mao Zedong of having two ten-year terms as president of the CCP.
In January, the Communist Party’s Discipline Inspection Commission and other organs issued a notice on strengthening the supervision of the general election. In it, the local leadership discipline of the election, clearly listed ten “strictly forbidden”: strictly forbidden to form a party and camp, strictly forbidden to canvass and bribe elections, strictly forbidden to buy and sell officials, strictly forbidden to run for officials, strictly forbidden to have personal say, strictly forbidden to lobby and greet, strictly forbidden to use irregularities, strictly forbidden to escape the wind, strictly forbidden to falsify, strictly forbidden to interfere with the election.
Some netizens mocked that these ten prohibitions seem to be a warning to Xi Jinping and Xi’s army, because only they can do this. In response to the “ten prohibitions,” Lin He Li, a visiting professor of history at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, pointed out that the Communist Party has been issuing similar propaganda instructions on party discipline, work attitude, and alignment with “Xi’s core” since late last year. The “ten prohibitions” issued at the beginning of this year are related to Xi Jinping’s power layout for the 20th National Congress next year.
Lin He Li said: This is to further consolidate Xi Jinping’s power. The reason is that the cadres in Beijing generally feel that Xi Jinping will stay in the 20th Congress in 2022. Although he will have completed 10 years in the job by next year, he is the core of the CCP, so he will not step down. But he is also afraid that some cadres will criticize him. Because, since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, the CCP is advocating for a sound system and not personalized rule by man, system over man. But Xi Jinping feels that he is the core for Life, so if his health permits, he may work for 5 or even 10 more years, until the 21st Party Congress in 2032. So those rules, along with other party disciplines, are mainly to consolidate Xi’s core position.”
In 2018 the Chinese National People’s Congress amended the constitution to remove the restriction that the president can only serve two 10-year terms, meaning that there is no longer a legal obstacle for Xi to continue his re-election, but whether he can completely muffle the murmurs of opposition from political enemies within the party and allow him to carry out a scenic third term is based on the atmosphere that Xi and the Xi Family army will have to actively create before the 20th Congress.
The company’s main goal is to make sure that the company’s customers are able to get to know the company’s customers. Xi Jinping has been very successful in clinging to power, and he has cultivated his own Xi family army, which has taken a very important position in the party, politics and the military. So, although he has many enemies, he does not see anyone who has the strength to challenge him openly.”
Has Xi Jinping really become entrenched in power? On the surface, it seems so, but on closer analysis, it may not be. For one thing, if power was really solid, there would be no need to issue the “ten strict prohibitions” to intimidate officials. Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping were so powerful that they didn’t even bother with the “Trinity” (President, General Secretary and Chairman of the Military Commission). Secondly, on January 22, Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Discipline Inspection Commission, talking about the “three political powers”, that is, “political judgment, political comprehension and political execution”. The next day, Xinhua News Agency published an editorial article on the front page, “Three references to the “three political forces” in one month”, interpreting Xi Jinping’s speech, saying that “political corruption is the biggest corruption. Some corrupt elements have formed interest groups in a vain attempt to steal power from the Party and the state and engage in unorganized activities,” the article said. According to the article, “So far this year, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has issued a notification of the punishment of seven cadres within 11 days. Of these seven, six were noted to have violated the Party’s political discipline.” This shows that there are indeed not a few people who go against Xi, and the series of punishments at the beginning of 2021 is quite an example to the monkeys.
The key is that his political perversions are not only unpopular with the people, but also with the officials. The second tenth Xi Jinping may be re-elected, but this will be a disaster for him and the CCP. Because the domestic and international “Time” and “trend” are not on Xi Jinping’s side.
First, let’s talk about the domestic “time” and “momentum.
Some scholars point out that great power is like an aphrodisiac that makes people addicted. Once you become a dictator, you can’t even think about not being great, and you can’t even think about not being elected. The company’s main goal is to make sure that the company’s customers are able to get to know the company’s customers. So there will be round after round of purges and killings to eliminate dissidents, and round after round of campaigns and struggles will be endless. In the face of the supreme authority and absolute power, no one dares not to unite around Xi’s core, and if you look at the dynasty, apart from the hardcore Zhijiang New Army’s clothed lackeys, it is the human voting machine that “never gives the party any trouble. The party may not be completely without understanding people inside and outside, there are no honest ministers, they are not allowed to “delude” the central government under the stick to force, those who know what to do can only shut up, those who do not know what to do will have to wait for the jail, the penalty. In this way, the great country has only one person, see who can compete with the world, the whole country is bound to fall into the old rut of Stalin and Mao Zedong, towards the abyss of doom.
Xi Jinping’s brutal persecution of Chinese Communist Party officials has put them all at risk. Every official is a fish on the CCP’s plate, and it is only a matter of time before they are gutted and stripped of their scales. But officials are no more stupid than Xi Jinping, and they will not just sit there and wait for death. For one thing, the 36th plan is the best one. The officials abroad will apply for political asylum abroad once they find out that there is a storm. Second, undercover to protect themselves. Domestic officials will leave evidence and confidential documents to keep themselves alive, so they become undercover agents lurking in the CCP. Xi Jinping has always wanted officials to be loyal, but he never thought that if you put a gun to an official’s head all day long, you are the official’s enemy, so you can’t talk about loyalty. Thirdly, there are many big corruption cases. Because the cost and risk of being an official is too high, so, once an official sits in a high position to be greedy. In the poor political ecology, the officials to survive will be booked life and death alliance, official officials protect each other, official officials protect each other. Once the east window is discovered will collectively fish dead net broken.
Zhu Yuanzhang, the founding emperor of the Ming dynasty, punished corrupt officials with a finesse unprecedented in the past and unprecedented in the future. He announced that any official who embezzled more than 60 taels of silver would be stripped of his skin and rolled up in the grass, and finally even the official “received a bribe of one pair of socks, two pairs of shoes”, “four books, one piece of clothing”, “one scarf, one net scarf, and one round dress”. The officials were also killed. There were not enough officials to kill, so some officials who had committed crimes had to be kept in office. But after 276 years of perseverance in the fight against corruption, Chongzhen, the last emperor of the Ming Dynasty, finally hung himself under a crooked tree.
History is merciless, and all social systems that are dehumanizing will be overthrown by the people and discarded by history. Today’s Xi Jinping, who is similar to Zhu Yuanzhang’s approach, forced officials to jump from buildings, crash trains into trains, take poison, and officials are not living. If Xi Jinping doesn’t change his ways, he’ll go on like this, and the result will be worse than Emperor Chongzhen, because the environment is seriously polluted, and it’s not easy to find a strong crooked-necked tree.
Secondly, we are talking about the international “time” and “situation”.
In an interview with CBS yesterday, President Joe Biden discussed U.S. relations with the Chinese Communist Party. He acknowledged that he has not spoken with Xi Jinping since taking office, although Biden has spoken with many other world leaders. Biden believes that the relationship between the United States and China will be different than it was under the Trump administration. Biden said of Xi Jinping: He has no democracy in his bones.
Under his administration, Biden said, the United States would be in “extreme competition” with the Chinese Communist Party. I kept telling him that we don’t need to have conflict, but there will be fierce competition,” he said, recalling discussions with Xi during his vice presidency from 2009 to 2017.
In a speech at the State Department last week, Biden had said he would work more closely with allies and through cooperation to counter the Chinese Communist Party. Biden described Beijing as the United States’ “most serious competitor.
It is clear that in Biden’s eyes, Xi Jinping is a dictator who does not know the meaning of democracy. He will work with his Western allies to meet the challenge from the Chinese Communist Party. What is the extreme competition that Biden is talking about? My view is that Biden will stick to human rights and international rules and engage in tit-for-tat confrontations with the CCP in areas such as human rights for Uighurs, democracy and freedom in Taiwan and Hong Kong, free navigation and fair trade in the South China Sea, and intellectual property rights, and will ignore the red lines Xi has drawn.
Not long ago, an 80-page article by an anonymous author was published on the website of the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank, titled “A Longer Telegram: A New U.S. Strategy for Dealing with the Chinese Communist Party”. The author, whose identity is mysterious, is said to be a former senior official. The article is a parody of a long telegram written by former U.S. diplomat Kennan to the U.S. State Department in 1946, hence the name “Longer Telegram. The article attempts to set the tone of U.S. policy for the next few decades in response to the rise of the Chinese Communist Party.
The article states that an effective U.S. and allied strategy toward China must target Xi Jinping. The political reality of the CCP is that the Communist Party is inherently divided under Xi Jinping, who threatens the lives, positions and entrenched policy positions of many other senior officials in the party.
Mr. Hu Ping said he agrees with this view. We must distinguish not only between the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese people, but also between the dictator and the rest of the party at large. The Communist Party’s ability to rule the country with an authoritarian approach lies first and foremost in its ability to rule the Party with an authoritarian approach. Xi Jinping, in particular, has reached a level of personal centralization of power comparable to that of Mao Zedong. If we oppose the Communist Party, we must first oppose Xi Jinping. Precisely because the CCP system is an authoritarian dictatorship, it makes a big difference who is in charge. If Li Keqiang had taken over instead of Xi Jinping, the mainland would be a different place today. Xi Jinping’s perverse actions have not only created deep resentment among the people, but also made numerous enemies within the CCP, so the potential force against Xi among the people and within the party cannot be underestimated. Of course, the problem on the mainland is the system, but this is not the same as saying that changing people is not important. The history of communist countries tells us that whenever a major dictator steps down, more energy is bound to be unleashed, so it will not simply go back to square one, but will inevitably make a breakthrough and advance. In this way, targeting Xi Jinping is not only realistic, but also strategic.
Finally, let’s conclude. Xi Jinping and the Xi family army are closely plotting and laying out their plans for staying in power at the 20th National Congress. On the surface, Xi Jinping’s power is solid, but a closer analysis, even through articles in the CCP’s party media, reveals that this is not the case, and that the internal power struggle in the CCP has become open, with a large number of CCP officials opposing Xi Jinping. Even if Xi Jinping continues to be re-elected, it does not mean that the “time” and “momentum” at Home and abroad are on his side. CCP officials will become his enemies, and the Western democratic world will also become his and the CCP’s enemies. Perhaps it would be best for him to withdraw from the CCP in time, but will the more than one million CCP officials he has persecuted let him and Xi’s army off the hook?
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