Wednesday (November 11) afternoon, the two oil continued to rise. wti crude oil futures rose 4%, above the $ 43 mark, at $ 43.01 / barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 3.78%, for the first time in 10 weeks on the $ 45 mark, at $ 45.26 / barrel. Affected by international oil prices, some oil stocks in the United States pre-market up. British Petroleum rose more than 2%, Chevron rose 0.58%.
Recently, affected by the good news of the Pfizer vaccine, the oil market panic has cooled, funds quickly poured into crude oil and other risk assets, oil prices rose wildly. On Tuesday, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Fauci, also said that the vaccine would be available to the highest priority population in December, a statement that boosted oil prices again.
So far the price of WTI crude oil has risen back above $42, but Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that from now on, it will be more difficult for oil prices to rise further.
Earlier, analysts in the energy sector pointed out that the state of progress in vaccine development means that the world’s long-frozen cross-border business and leisure travel activity is finally expected to start thawing, which will be an immediate positive for the outlook for crude oil demand.
But the problem is, the current progress in vaccines on the oil price boost effect does not seem to be able to last, after all, the vaccine from the large-scale launch there is still a not so short way to go. In addition, the number of people getting vaccinated in Europe and the US has been limited, which means that the time for mass vaccination does not seem to be as quick.
Harry Tchilinguirian, oil strategist at BNP Paribas, said that news of the vaccine will affect asset prices through market popularity, but it will take quite some time for it to have a positive and tangible impact on the economy.
Meanwhile, a new round of blockade measures in Europe and a rising number of new cases in the U.S. are still hitting crude oil demand.The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook report lowered the growth rate of crude oil demand, adjusting its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2020 to a decrease of 8.61 million barrels per day, compared to a decrease of 8.62 million barrels per day previously. And it adjusted the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2021 to 5.89 million barrels per day, compared to 6.25 million barrels per day previously.
Recently, Goldman Sachs also lowered its oil price forecast for next year, and it cut its 2021 WTI crude oil price forecast to $52.8/bbl from $55.9/bbl, and its Brent crude oil price forecast to $55/bbl from $59.4/bbl. Goldman Sachs expects the demand gap in the oil market to continue into next year, increasing from 900,000 b/d in the first quarter of 2021 to an average of 1.4 million b/d between the second and fourth quarters of 2021.
For oil supply, Goldman Sachs conservatively estimates that oil production will continue to pick up, with production expected to increase by an average of 1.1 million bpd in the first quarter of 2021, which is 500,000 bpd higher than previously expected.
In addition, despite a larger-than-expected drop in API crude inventories in the U.S. in the week to Nov. 6, down 5.147 million barrels to 482 million barrels, released early Wednesday morning, inventories of crude oil currently remain high overall.
James Doyle, senior financial and research analyst at Scorpio Tankers, stated.
“Crude oil floating storage had peaked at 290 million barrels this year and is still around 250 million barrels, but normally it stays around 150 million barrels.”
In the short term, investors need to pay attention to the two oil reports that will be released this week, with OPEC+ releasing its monthly oil report on Wednesday at a time to be determined. In addition, the release of the US EIA crude oil inventory data has been postponed to Friday at 00:00 GMT due to the US Veterans Day (11 November) holiday.
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