The Chinese Communist Party will hold its 20th National Congress (20th Congress) in the fall of 2022, and the big political event that will take place then is the retention of Chinese President Xi Jinping. His third term (2023-2028) will officially break the tradition of Chinese presidents stepping down after two 10-year terms since Mao Zedong.
Many observers say the CPC has already started preparations for the 20th National Congress, and Xi has already launched his subsequent power layout. One example of how Xi has begun to lay out his power is the issuance in January by the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and other agencies of 10 “strict prohibitions” to take advantage of the change in leadership in some local governments this year.
Some observers interviewed by the Voice of America believe that the main purpose of the “ten prohibitions” is to help Xi Jinping “establish authority,” “consolidate Xi’s core position” and “eliminate murmurs” for his unlimited term of office. The “ten bans” are seen by observers as a way to help Xi Jinping “establish his authority,” “consolidate his core position” and “remove the noise” from his unlimited term.
However, they also said that the “Ten Strict Prohibitions” were in fact an accidental slap in Xi Jinping’s face, as each of the disciplinary prohibitions against local officials was in fact directed at Xi Jinping, and exposed the widespread corruption of local Communist Party leaders and cadres.
CCP issues ten strict prohibitions
According to People’s Daily Online on Wednesday (Feb. 3), the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection organ of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee and the State Supervisory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Serious Discipline of the General Election to Strengthen the Supervision of the General Election Style in January. Among them, on the local leadership discipline of the general election, clearly listed ten “strictly forbidden”: strictly forbidden to form a party, strictly forbidden to canvass and bribe elections, strictly forbidden to buy and sell officials, strictly forbidden to run for officials, strictly forbidden to have a personal say, strictly forbidden to greet, strictly forbidden to use irregularities, strictly forbidden to run the wind, strictly forbidden to falsify, strictly forbidden to interfere with the general election.
In an interview with the Voice of America, Lin He Li, visiting professor of history at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, pointed out that the CPC has had similar propaganda instructions on party discipline, work attitude, and alignment with “Xi’s core” since the end of last year. He believes that the “ten prohibitions” issued at the beginning of this year are related to Xi’s power layout for the 20th National Congress next year.
The government’s decision to release the “ten bans” at the beginning of this year is related to Xi Jinping’s power layout for next year’s 20th Congress,” said Lin He Li. Because, for the 20th National Congress in 2022, the general cadres in Beijing feel that Xi will stay. Although he will have completed 10 years by next year, he is the core of the party’s top center, so he will not step down. However, he is also afraid that some cadres will criticize him. That is, because, since Deng Xiaoping reform, Deng Xiaoping is advocating the establishment of a sound system, do not engage in personalized rule of man, the system is more important than people. However, Xi Jinping seems to think that he is the core for Life, so if his health permits, he may work for 5 or even 10 more years, to the 21st Party Congress in 2032. So, those rules and other disciplinary aspects of the party are mainly to consolidate this Xi core position.”
In 2018, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) completed a constitutional amendment to remove the restriction that the president can only be re-elected once (for two 10-year terms), meaning that there are no legal obstacles to Xi’s continued re-election, but whether he can completely silence the murmurings of opposition from political enemies within the party and allow him to carry out a scenic third term is an atmosphere that the party’s central committee, with Xi Jinping at its core, will actively create before the 20th National Congress.
“‘Ten bans’ aim to consolidate Xi’s power
Observers say Xi’s power within the party is solid and the domestic and international environment is favorable to him, so his re-election should not be a problem, but he still needs to guard against opposition or a build-up of forces before the 20th National Congress.
The government’s policy is to ensure that the government is able to provide the necessary support to the people of China. Xi Jinping has been very successful in holding on to power, and he has cultivated his own Xi Family army, which already occupies an important position in the party, politics and the military. So, although he has a lot of enemies, he can’t see anyone who has the strength to challenge him openly.”
Lin and Li said Xi Jinping has been in power since 2013, the first five years of the thunderous fight against corruption, such as Zhou Yongkang and other big tigers, on the one hand to rectify the discipline of the party, but more importantly, to eliminate the party’s political enemies who pose a threat to him, in order to consolidate power. Since his second term, Xi Jinping, who is comfortable in his power, seems to have relaxed his anti-corruption efforts, but in the last six months he has arrested many more corrupt officials, with a strong taste of re-enforcing his control.
Zhao Chunshan, a professor emeritus at the Institute of Mainland China Studies at Tamkang University in Taipei, agrees that it has been Xi’s style of governance to use corruption to “establish authority. However, he said, Xi has attracted a lot of criticism, especially from overseas Chinese, for the disparity between the rich and poor in China, the effectiveness of poverty eradication, and even the impact of the new Epidemic, which has led to a recent trend of tightening the control of the Communist Party, from ideological control to public opinion. He believes that the promulgation of the “Ten Prohibitions” has had a chilling effect, helping to consolidate Xi’s power and silence the noise.
Zhao Chunshan said, “This (the “Ten Prohibitions”) will allow others, even if they have different opinions about him politically or about his continued work, but because of this, they may think to themselves, “I’ve broken a few of these ten commandments, so I’ll start to shut up in this area. It’s going to have this chilling effect.”
Negative resistance: you can think, but you can’t say
According to Professor Zhao, Xi’s power is relatively solid, and the domestic and international environment is also favorable to him this year, including the fact that China has joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement initiated by ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations last year, and has also signed the China-Europe Investment Agreement. Therefore, Xi should be in no danger of re-election until next year, as long as he manages the epidemic and the economy.
He said that the only thing that can bring variables to Xi’s re-election is China-US relations. But with the new U.S. President Joe Biden busy with domestic affairs and still shaping China Policy, former U.S. President Donald Trump, a headache for China, has stepped down, and U.S.-China relations are not yet in intense conflict in the near future, Zhao believes the situation is developing in Xi’s favor.
Zeng Ruisheng, director of the China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, agrees that there are no obstacles to Xi’s re-election, but that doesn’t mean there’s no discontent or anti-Xi voices within the party.
Passive resistance (negative resistance) is basically there for sure,” he said. The party hopes it can lead you away from thinking such wrong (anti-Xi) thoughts. But the current years are not Mao’s years, so you can’t be completely prevented from thinking about it, but you think about it, you don’t talk about it, so that’s OK!”
Zeng Ruisheng said the CCP might allow anti-Xi thoughts, but it would never tolerate someone taking the lead and speaking out. He said that as long as no one speaks out, internal opposition will not gather or even form factions, and the Communist Party can create an atmosphere in which the entire party supports Xi Jinping.
The “ten bans” are said to be a slap in the face to Xi Jinping
Although the “ten bans” represent Xi’s power layout, political commentator Chen Baokong pointed out on his YouTube political program Thursday (Feb. 4) that after crawling through the “ten bans,” he found that each of them is full of “irony” and “sarcasm. irony” and “black humor”, because all of them point to Xi Jinping.
Chen said, whether it is the formation of a party, personal say, or run for officials, illegal use of personnel, Xi Jinping and the core of the CPC top are the most typical representatives. The biggest irony, he said, is that the tenth article “strictly prohibits interference with the general election”, because Xi Jinping, who is seeking a third term, is not the biggest offender of interference with the general election. Chen said that if the ten prohibitions are to be seriously implemented, Xi Jinping and his power should be the first to be put in a cage.
Chen also pointed out that China’s official party media, under the control of the Communist Party, “falsify” and “leak” (i.e., leak personnel arrangements and other secrets), and sometimes violate the ban. He said that the ban on “canvassing and bribery” is likely to create the illusion of democracy in China with universal suffrage, but he pointed out that in fact, China only has a “small circle” of designated candidates, a “birdcage” and a “mere formality”. But he pointed out that in fact, China only has “small circles” of designated candidates, “birdcage” and “passing” elections, which are not democratic at all, and that bribery is also very prevalent.
No silver in this place
In addition to the slap in the face to Xi Jinping, several observers said the “ten prohibitions” against impropriety within the Party and in the country are an indication that corruption is widespread among leaders and cadres from the central government down to the provincial level.
One dissident, who asked not to be named, told the Voice of America, “It’s obvious that what it (the Communist Party) says itself is a very obvious phenomenon that is widespread, and that’s why it’s bringing it out to emphasize that it should be strictly prohibited, and if these things didn’t happen, it wouldn’t need to be strictly prohibited.”
While it is impossible to know with certainty the extent of corruption in China’s local governments, Prof. Chunshan Zhao of Tamkang University in Taipei and Prof. Ruisheng Zeng of the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London agree that there is no wind, no wave, and everything happens for a reason.
Zeng Ruisheng said, “To issue such a notice now would be to have no silver lining here. If the Party Central Committee (felt) that the issue did not exist, there would be no need to issue such a directive.”
For his part, Professor Lin He Li of the Chinese University of Hong Kong said the Culture of corruption in the Communist Party has always existed. He said that under the premise of one-party dictatorship, problems such as corruption and gangsterism are difficult to avoid, and because there is no supervision of elections, these corruptions cannot be rooted out through the formal system from the era of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping.
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