The EU more or less expects something from Russia, an important argument being that it is better not to push Russia completely to the side of China; there is also a point of view that Merkel insists on, which is to complete the Nord Stream II oil pipeline, which is important for Germany‘s energy security, although the US and other EU countries do not approve of it.
What the EU did not expect, however, was that Borelli, the EU’s top diplomat, was ignored in Moscow! EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrelli visited Moscow on February 4-6 at the invitation of the Kremlin, the first top EU diplomatic chief to visit Russia since 2017, a visit that some member states opposed at the moment following the sentencing of Russian opposition leader Navalny. Borrelli, backed by Germany and France, insisted on the trip with a dual objective: to reaffirm the immediate release of Navalny and to probe how willing the Kremlin is to cooperate with the EU. As a result, the EU was slapped in the face when Russia not only rejected the EU’s demands, but expelled three diplomats from EU member states just as he was talking with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
The French newspaper Le Monde, in an editorial entitled “Moscow teaches Europe a lesson”, pointed out that the press conference prepared for Borrelli by Foreign Minister Lavrov, who came from the Soviet school, turned out to be a trap. The first question asked by the official Russian news agency was aimed at inducing Borrelli to denounce the U.S. sanctions against Cuba, and Borrelli did not escape the reef; but he did not expect anything worse than that: while he was talking with Lavrov, three diplomats from Germany, Poland and Sweden who supported Navalny were expelled. This is no longer a trap, but a slap in the face of the EU by defying its top diplomatic official!
Indeed, at a Time of extreme internal political tensions in Russia, Borrelli underestimated the cynicism of the Putin regime. Before he left, he admonished his colleagues with the famous words of his EU predecessor Schuman: “Dialogue should be maintained in the face of adversity”. Between the EU and Russia, Borrelli wanted to explore how much room there was for developing bilateral relations. But for dialogue to take place, there must be an existing side, and during his disastrous visit the Moscow authorities confirmed that they have no desire whatsoever to engage in dialogue with the EU, something that has never been clearer than today for any member state that still has a trace of suspicion. Clarifying this may be more important than anything else. On Sunday evening, Borrelli soberly admitted that his trip to Moscow had been a fiasco and that he was thus convinced that Russia is disconnected from Europe and that it sees democratic values as a threat to its existence.
In Le Monde’s view, what the EU lacks in the face of Russia is determination and solidarity, both of which are even more indispensable after such a setback, whether it be sanctions against Russia or a fundamental shift in strategic relations against Russia.
However, what Le Monde resorted to was only an opinion that two countries are at war, without insulting their ambassadors, and what, specifically, should the EU do in the face of such Russian brutality? What can be done? What can be done next after Germany, Sweden and Poland retaliated by expelling a Russian diplomat each in the first instance?
Since Putin ordered the occupation of Crimea in 2014, the EU has initiated a full range of sanctions against Russia in the areas of oil, finance, and defense, which have been renewed year after year. This sanction has in fact severely weakened Russia’s economic viability, but to what extent has it affected the rulers? The EU ordered sanctions against six of Putin’s cronies after Moscow authorities tried to poison Navalny, but Navalny was quite skeptical about the effectiveness of this EU sanction and asked the EU to directly hit the pockets of Kremlin cronies. The EU Parliament passed a resolution asking the EU to sanction oligarchs with close ties to the Kremlin, people closest to Putin and Russian official media that own stocks in the EU. The EU Parliament also demanded an immediate halt to the construction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline connecting Russia to Germany.
Just as Russia was coldly observing how strong the EU’s will was, cracks within the EU then became apparent. Sources from EU diplomatic sources say it will be very difficult to pass tougher sanctions against Russia, especially to stop the construction of the Nord Stream II pipeline. As usual, German Chancellor Angela Merkel favored the adoption of the resolution on sanctions against Russia, but refused to stop the construction of Nord Stream II. Berlin pretends that this is a private project that involves the security of strategic supplies for Germany. One diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, lamented in exasperation that money had finally won out over diplomacy and that each member state was concerned with its own immediate interests.
The EU will eventually introduce measures against Russia’s crackdown on Navalny, including top Kremlin officials involved in the direct crackdown, but it is doubtful that it will come up with tougher measures that go to the heart of the matter, according to one European diplomat, adding that some member states are reluctant to make a clean break with Moscow and are also worried about having a seat on the Security Council with the brutal, while in the Caucasus, Ukraine, Iran, Syria, Africa, Libya Tensions have escalated with Russia, a neighbor reaching out in all directions.
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