On Tuesday (Feb. 9), the federal Senate will open the impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump (Trump). Republicans have already signaled that the odds of convicting Trump are essentially “zero.
Last month, the House voted 232-197 to pass articles of impeachment against Trump, who was accused of inciting a riot. But Trump said he made no calls for violence during the Capitol incident.
In his Jan. 6 speech, Trump called on his supporters to “peacefully and patriotically” make their voices heard during the joint session of Congress. Democrats, on the other hand, claimed that Trump was rallying and inciting violence and should be held accountable for the riots at the Capitol. A second impeachment of Trump was then launched.
As part of the pretrial agreement between McConnell and Schumer, the House impeachment manager and the Trump defense team will submit a second round of briefs to the Senate on Monday. The briefs should provide a window into further how both sides will present their arguments following the first round of briefs filed last week.
Trump will not be present at the impeachment trial
Former President Trump will not testify during the Senate impeachment hearings on Feb. 9. Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Trump, told Fox News on Feb. 4, “The president will not be testifying in the unconstitutional proceedings.”
Trump’s defense attorneys Bruce Castor and David Schoen later responded to House impeachment representative Jamie Raskin’s Feb. 4 request for Trump to testify at the Senate impeachment trial by saying the request was a “public relations stunt “They said Democrats “can’t prove” the charges against Trump.
Impeachment trial moderator and Trump’s defense attorney
According to the rules, the impeachment of the president is to be presided over by the chief justice of the Supreme Court, but Chief Justice John Roberts (John Roberts) refused to preside over the impeachment. Democrats then chose Senate President Pro Tempore Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) to preside over Roberts instead.
Republican Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told Fox News that Roberts’ reluctance to preside “is a strong signal to all of us that this is going to be a partisan hearing presided over by a Democrat.”
Paul also said that if the speech is to be criminalized, then Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) should also face impeachment. He also cited Schumer’s previous comments threatening conservative Supreme Court justices.
Trump’s impeachment defense team will be led by two lawyers, Castor and Scone. Castor has already said the defense team will show video clips of some of the top Democrats’ own comments inciting violence during the impeachment trial.
Trump’s defense team argues in its brief that “the Constitution requires impeachment against the person who actually holds office” and that Trump is exercising his First Amendment right to free speech by challenging the results of the November election.
Alan Dershowitz, a Harvard law professor, said Feb. 6 that the Trump team’s effective legal defense is to challenge the constitutionality of the Democratic Party’s charges against Trump.
Dershowitz told Newsmax News that the only argument Trump can make is that “the Senate has no jurisdiction over a former president and that (Trump’s) speech is protected by the First Amendment.
Republicans: It’s basically impossible to convict Trump
Before the impeachment trial began, Republicans had made it clear that the outcome was virtually certain.
“This (impeachment of Trump) is a partisan farce,” Republican Senator Paul said in a Feb. 7 interview on Fox.
When asked if Senate Democrats had a chance of getting 67 votes to convict Trump, Paul said, “The odds of conviction are zero.”
There are 100 seats in the Senate, with Democrats and Republicans holding 50 seats each. That means at least 17 Republicans and all Democrats would have to vote for Trump’s impeachment to convict him.
“Forty-five Republicans have said that this (impeaching Trump) is not a legitimate process …… As far as witnesses, I think it’s unlikely to be witnesses; if they did want witnesses, there would be so much evidence that President (Trump) had nothing to do with this.”
In fact, Paul filed a motion to impeach the former president in the Senate last month, calling for a vote on the constitutionality of the impeachment trial. 45 Republican senators voted to dismiss the second impeachment trial against Trump as unconstitutional.
This means that out of 50 Republicans, the Democrats have only pulled in 5 Republicans to stand. And to position Trump, the support of an additional 12 Republicans is still needed.
Graham: The impeachment result is actually set, it’s just a matter of how long the trial will last
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said that “the outcome (of the impeachment) is actually not in doubt” and that Republicans will not convict Trump and that the impeachment trial is just a question of how long it will last.
“Impeachment is a political process. We’ve never impeached a president who left office. I think it (impeaching Trump) is a very bad idea. 45 or more Republicans would have voted early that it was unconstitutional. It’s not about how the trial ends, it’s about when it ends.” In an interview with the CBS show, Graham said, “The only question is, are they going to call witnesses? How long will the trial need to last?”
Democrats admit impeachment may be unconstitutional
Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Pa.) supports convicting Trump. In an interview on Fox News Sunday, he said the Senate has a duty to try the former president, even while acknowledging that Paul makes a valid point that a trial would be unconstitutional.
“I recognize that it’s certainly a matter of first impression, so I don’t think it’s absurd for Senator Paul to make that argument.” He said.
Other top Republicans also believe it is highly unlikely that Trump will be convicted, and that if he is, it could result in him being barred from holding public office in the future.
Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Tenn.) condemned the House impeachment process, saying it tainted the Senate process.
“Let’s face it, the House did a terrible job of building a case before the impeachment vote,” Cassidy said in an NBC interview, “There was no process. I mean, it’s almost like, you know, if it happened in the Soviet Union, you’d call it a show trial.”
Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers have publicly said they want the trial to proceed quickly because the Senate cannot advance its legislative priorities until the trial is completed. Many Republicans have denounced the trial as a partisan event that will go nowhere.
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