The 20th Communist Party Congress, to be held in the fall of 2022, has attracted much attention as CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping tries to kick off his third term (2023-2028) and even surpass Mao Zedong by engaging in an indefinite re-election. The CCP has already launched preparations for the 20th Congress, and at this juncture, observers believe that the battle for power layout within the CCP has already been fought. The CPC’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and other organs took advantage of the change of leadership in some local governments this year to issue the so-called ten “strict prohibitions” notice in January.
According to a Feb. 3 report in the Communist Party media, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee and the State Supervisory Commission jointly issued a circular in January on strengthening the supervision of the general election. In it, ten “strict prohibitions” were explicitly listed regarding the discipline of local leaderships in the general election: strictly forbidding the association of parties for personal gain, canvassing and bribery, buying and selling of officials, running for officials, personal say-so, lobbying and greeting, illegal use of personnel, running away from the wind, falsification, and interference in the general election.
According to the Voice of America, Lin He Li, a visiting professor of history at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, pointed out in an interview that the CCP has been issuing propaganda instructions on party discipline, work attitude, and alignment with “Xi’s core” since the end of last year. The “ten prohibitions” issued at the beginning of this year are related to Xi Jinping’s power layout for the 20th National Congress next year.
In 2018, the Chinese Communist Party‘s National People’s Congress (NPC) completed a constitutional amendment to remove the restriction that the president can only be re-elected once (two 10-year terms), removing a legal obstacle to Xi’s re-election, but Xi needs to completely silence opposition from his party’s political opponents before the 20th National Congress, allowing him to carry out his third term in style.
Lin and Li believe the “10 bans” are intended to further strengthen Xi’s hand, as Beijing officials generally believe Xi will stay in office for the 20th National Congress in 2022. He is the core of the party, but he is also afraid because some cadres have criticized him.
Lin and Li said that if Xi’s health permits, he may work for 5 or even 10 more years, until the 21st party congress in 2032. Therefore, those rules and other aspects of discipline within the party, mainly to consolidate this Xi core position.
Observers say Xi Jinping’s power within the party is solid and the domestic and international environment is favorable to him, so his re-election should not be a problem, but before the 20th Congress, it is still important to guard against opposition or a build-up of forces.
The government’s policy is to ensure that the government is able to provide the necessary support to the people of China. Xi has cultivated his own personal Xi Family army, which already occupies a very important position in the party, politics and military. Although he has many enemies, he does not see anyone who has the strength to challenge him openly.
Lin and Li said that after taking power, Xi first got rid of several big tigers such as Zhou Yongkang, and most importantly, he got rid of political enemies in the Party who posed a threat to him, in order to consolidate his power. In his second term, he seemed to have relaxed his anti-corruption efforts, but in the last six months he has arrested many more corrupt officials, with a strong taste of re-enforcing his control.
Professor Emeritus of the Institute of Mainland China Studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan, Zhao Chunshan, also believes that Xi has been using the fight against corruption to “establish authority,” but in response to China’s wealth gap problem, the effectiveness of poverty eradication, and even the impact of the Epidemic, Xi Jinping has actually attracted a lot of criticism last year, especially from overseas Chinese discontent, so recently the Communist Party of China (CPC) has been controlling everything from ideas to public opinion. Therefore, there is a tendency for the CCP to tighten its control from ideological control to the control of public opinion. He believes that the promulgation of the “Ten Prohibitions” will have a chilling effect, helping to consolidate Xi’s power and silence the noise. It will have this chilling effect.
Zeng Ruisheng, director of the China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, said there are no obstacles to Xi’s re-election, but that does not mean there is no discontent or anti-Xi voices in the party.
There must be negative resistance within the party, Zeng said. The Communist Party may allow anti-Xi thoughts, but it will never tolerate someone taking the lead and speaking out. He said that as long as no one speaks out, internal opposition will not gather or even form factions, and the CCP can create an atmosphere in which the entire party supports Xi Jinping.
Although the “ten bans” represent Xi’s intention to establish authority, political commentator Chen Baokong said in a Feb. 4 video political program that each of the “ten bans” is full of “irony” and “black humor. The “black humor”, because all of them are pointed at Xi Jinping.
Chen said that Xi Jinping and the CPC top brass, with him as the core, are the most typical representatives, whether it’s party affiliation, personal control, or running for office or employing people in violation of the rules. In particular, he said, the greatest irony is the tenth article “strictly prohibit interference with the general election”, because, Xi Jinping to seek a third term, is not the biggest offender of interference with the general election?
Chen said that if the ten prohibitions are to be seriously implemented, Xi Jinping and his power should be the first to be put in a cage.
Chen also said that the official media, under the control of the Chinese Communist Party, “falsify” and “leak” (leaking the secrets of personnel arrangements for the new term), and sometimes violate the ban.
Chen said that the ban on “canvassing and bribery” is likely to create the illusion of democracy in the outside world that China has universal suffrage, but in fact China only has a “small circle” of designated candidates, “birdcage” and “going through the motions. In fact, China only has “small circles” of designated candidates, “birdcage style” and “going through the motions” of elections, not democratic elections at all, and bribery is also very prevalent.
According to the Voice of America, several other observers say the Communist Party’s “Ten Prohibitions” against improprieties within the Party and in the country are an indication that corruption is widespread from the central government down to local leaders at the provincial level. If these things didn’t happen, it wouldn’t need to be strictly prohibited. There is no wind, no wave, there must be a reason for what happened. Now to issue such a notice is here and nowhere. And under the premise of one-party dictatorship, corruption and gangsterism are hard to avoid.
There have been voices questioning Xi Jinping’s desire to stay in power for a long Time, but it is still unclear how long the Communist regime, which relies on high-handed stability maintenance amidst many crises, will last.
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