The internal strife in the CCP in 2021 will be characterized by a “trifecta”: first, local officials at all levels will enter the “peak of the new term”; second, various factions will fight for the “new term” to prepare for the “20th Congress” in 2022; third, the “20th Congress” will decide the retention of Xi Jinping. Second, various factions will fight for the “20th National Congress” in 2022, and third, the “20th National Congress” will decide whether Xi Jinping will stay or go. Therefore, the internal strife in 2021 will reveal its overall, structural and systematic character. For all the forces in the CCP, this is not a one-day struggle, but a struggle for the next five years, so how can they not give it a shot?
Xi Jinping is well aware of this, and he has already started laying out his plans in 2020. Only one month into 2021, he has released three signals to warn the forces of all factions.
The first signal: three times a month, “political judgment, political comprehension, political implementation”. The first Time was the democratic Life of the Central Political Bureau in December last year, the second time was the special seminar for leading cadres at the provincial and ministerial level on January 11 this year, and the third time was the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Discipline Inspection Commission on January 22 this year. These three speeches are all aimed at the “key minority” of the party, that is, those who hold real power. Why is Xi so eager to mention the “three political forces”? The reason is that although he kept shouting “two safeguards” over the years, the norm in the officialdom is to be submissive and there are “two-faced people” everywhere, so Xi had no other choice but to mention “political” and “anti-corruption”. “anti-corruption” the two whips on the battlefield.
The second signal: keep an eye on the “hand”. The Chinese Communist Party itself is a gangster organization, at all levels, in all areas of the “hand” is almost all a “land emperor”: decision-making “one word”, hiring The “one word”, spending “one pen”, project “one hand”. The “one hand” in the hands of the real power, it is easy to override the central government, the so-called “policy at the top, there are countermeasures at the bottom”, resulting in “political orders do not leave Zhongnanhai”. This is a chronic institutional problem of the CCP, which the authorities cannot eradicate, but they have to “kill the chicken to scare the monkey”.
On February 2, the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and State Supervision Commission website information shows that in 2020, the national discipline inspection and supervision organs filed a review and investigation of 5,836 people at the county level and above “a hand”. And from a national perspective, the CPC 19 after the fall of the cadres, the main problem occurred in the “a hand” post more than 100 people. Xi Jinping has repeatedly stressed the need to strengthen the supervision of the key minority of officials at all levels, especially the “one hand”.
The third signal: “serious discipline for the new term”. In January this year, the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee, the State Supervision Commission jointly issued a “notice on the seriousness of the general election discipline to strengthen the supervision of the general election style”, set up “ten strict prohibitions”. But, in fact, the “new term” relates to the interests of a large number of officials, the future, is the officialdom of the “big black war”, the use of all kinds of things, how can “strictly prohibited” to it? For example, the sensational Liaoning bribery case, in 2013, Liaoning Province, 619 12th NPC deputies, there are 523 provincial deputies involved in the case. The “ten strict prohibitions” are just excuses for the various factions of the Chinese Communist Party to attack each other.
Xi Jinping has put out these three signals, but the question is, will they work?
The interests are rigid. The Chinese Communist Party itself said: it is harder to touch interests than to touch the soul. The factions of the CCP should still fight, position, power and interests as well. This has never been the case in the history of the CCP. The people who can climb to high positions in the CCP system are all “tested” for a long time. The word “fight” has become a gene of the CCP and its people.
Therefore, Xi Jinping’s consideration in releasing these three signals is not to stop or eliminate internal fighting in the CCP, but to ask each faction to control itself and not to overturn the table by going out of line. If the table is overturned, no one will be able to play, which is what Xi is most concerned about.
A tangible manifestation of Xi’s concern is the quick execution of Lai Xiaomin, the former chairman of China Huarong (only 24 days between the death sentence and the execution).
Since Xi came to power, so many corrupt officials have fallen, from the state level down to the small village chief, but only a handful of people have been sentenced to death, why did Lai Xiaomin not escape death? This is certainly not because Lai was found to have received more than 1.813 billion yuan in bribes and embezzlement, and to have “more than 100 suites, more than 100 connections and more than 100 lovers”; rather, it is because Xi wanted to use Lai Xiaomin to deter China’s financial oligarchs, as well as Lai’s backstage Zeng Qinghong Family.
In this regard, a key article in the official media Xinhua.com, “Xi Jinping mentions the ‘three political forces’ three times in one month,” has a clear interpretation. The article said Xi profoundly analyzed the current situation of anti-corruption struggle and used several “intertwined” to describe the characteristics and hazards of corruption, the first “intertwined” is that “political and economic issues are intertwined, threatening the Party and the state The first “intertwined” is that “political and economic issues are intertwined, threatening the political security of the Party and the country”; therefore, we must first strictly understand political discipline and political rules, focus on investigating and dealing with corruption cases where political and economic issues are intertwined, and promptly identify and remove these “two-faced” and “two-faced” people. The company’s main goal is to eliminate major political risks.
This shows that Xi has strongly felt the seriousness of the political situation. Xi’s categorical execution of Lai Xiaomin is a preemptive move to make his position clear, in an attempt to eliminate major political pitfalls and ensure that the “triple ring” of 2021 goes according to his will.
However, there is a countervailing force. Since the political situation has become so serious that Xi is not afraid to kill, the backlash against Xi from various factions will naturally be very strong. The Communist Party’s “oligarchic rule” model, in which 500 families determine the lifeblood of China, is unlikely to allow Xi to take advantage of the situation alone. Therefore, the issue of whether Xi will be re-elected at the 20th National Congress is bound to be a full-scale game between the various factions and Xi. Even if they cannot prevent Xi from being re-elected, they will still use it to bargain with Xi, or even fight to get a piece of the cheese. Thus, it seems inevitable that the CCP’s infighting will intensify in 2021.
However, there is another major uncertainty in 2021, namely whether there will be a second full-blown Epidemic outbreak in China. If there is a second outbreak, it will be difficult for the CCP’s zombie-like system to survive, and there will be no point in the CCP’s infighting except to burn itself down.
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