German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends a news conference in Berlin (Jan. 21, 2021).
While the U.S. unites its allies to counterbalance the Chinese Communist Party, Germany has taken a more bystander approach to the Asian giant. But with German Chancellor Angela Merkel set to leave office in September, analysis suggests that Berlin is likely to shift to a more hawkish stance toward China.
Merkel surprisingly said in 2018 that she would say goodbye to her political career. The chancellor gave up the leadership of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which she had chaired since 2000, and pledged not to seek re-election after her fourth term as chancellor.
Sophie Rocher, a senior researcher at the French Institute of International Relations, a think tank, said Merkel is seen as compromising with the Chinese Communist Party for business interests and has faced growing criticism both at Home and in the EU, and that a new leader could change her thinking on China.
She told Voice of America, “The new generation of leaders is more sensitive to the long-term threat of the Chinese Communist Party. Beijing and the CCP are challenging a very sensitive issue in Europe, which is the trade-off between long-term and short-term interests.”
Merkel’s successor
Merkel’s CDU elected Armin Laschet, the governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, as the new party leader in January, meaning he is likely to be Merkel’s successor as the coalition party’s candidate in the September election.
Laschet, 59, represents the centrist political line. Raschett, who hails from Germany’s most populous and industrial state, advocates protecting Germany’s export industries and is seen by some as soft on China.
In an interview last year, Raschett said Germany and Europe should deal with China in a realistic and confident manner. He also stressed the importance of abiding by international rules, “We advocate a rules-based international order, both in the commercial and political spheres, including market access and fair competition.”
Piotr Buras, an expert on German affairs at the European Association for Foreign Relations, argued that Germany’s attitude toward China has long been based primarily on geo-economics rather than geopolitics, and that the new administration needs to reform this economic link.
The dependence on Chinese exports is part of a German economic model in which traditional industries, mainly automobiles, play a central role,” he told the Voice of America. That model needs to be overhauled, or at least corrected, but it won’t happen overnight.”
As one of Europe’s most export-dependent countries, Germany relies on the Chinese market more than any other European country. in 2018, Germany’s exports to China accounted for almost half of all EU exports.
Germany’s domestic economic dependence on China has been rethought in recent years. Back in 2016, the German government rejected a Chinese company’s acquisition of German industrial robot maker Kuka, citing national security risks. Shortly after, Germany tightened its laws restricting overseas investment.
In the long term, Germany will further restructure its economic relations with China. In the wake of China’s “Made in China 2025,” which aims to build a technological superpower, there is growing skepticism in Germany about Beijing’s government-led economic strategy, which they fear will target German companies and siphon off their intellectual property.
A recent study by the Bertelsmann Stiftung, a think tank, suggests that exports to China from Germany’s crucial machinery manufacturing sector could shrink from 18 billion euros in 2019 to 13 billion euros in 2030 if Made in China 2025 is successful.
In addition, Merkel’s successor will face more pressure from other German parties. Germany’s complex multi-party system requires a coalition government, and these parties all advocate a tougher line on China.
Polls show that the Greens, who account for 20 percent of German voters, are expected to form a coalition government with the CDU. The Greens have become the most hawkish party toward China in recent years, advocating sanctions against Beijing for human rights violations and an end to the use of huawei technology, particularly for the development of Germany’s 5G network.
Pressure from the EU
Analysis suggests that Germany is also under pressure from the European Union, whose member states are increasingly dissatisfied with Germany’s policy toward China pushed within the EU, to be more vocal and tougher in its approach to China.
Given Germany’s pivotal position in the EU, Germany’s position has long been a major obstacle for members who support a tougher approach toward China. During Merkel’s administration, she advocated prioritizing dialogue on China and avoiding confrontation or criticism, believing that economic engagement would open China up politically.
Merkel also saw the EU as a mediating force in the escalating U.S.-China confrontation. She has pushed for renewed engagement with Beijing in areas such as investment agreements and climate change, trying to show that dialogue with Chinese communist leaders is still relevant
However, deep cracks have emerged in this approach. With the global Epidemic of the new crown crisis, the CCP has become more provocative politically and economically. It has continued to fight democracy in Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet, countering criticism from abroad with “wolf diplomacy,” while stepping up economic and political espionage throughout the West, including in Germany.
In the view of many Europeans, Merkel’s approach no longer reflects the European consensus. Over the past year, Europe’s stance on China has hardened dramatically. According to a Pew Research Center survey released in October, negative perceptions of China have risen significantly in most European countries.
Europe’s approach to China is in a moment of considerable flux. The EU’s announcement in December of an investment deal with Beijing was a huge victory for Chinese diplomacy. The agreement was concluded during Germany’s six-month presidency of the EU, with Merkel making it a top priority to reach the agreement.
But the investment deal has caused major divisions within the EU. Some EU member states believe Merkel has drained the EU’s credibility by putting the interests of large German companies ahead of some smaller EU member states and deliberately ignoring human rights issues in China.
Merkel’s friendly attitude toward Chinese telecom giant Huawei has put her in an awkward position. Despite her repeated talk of an EU common position on 5G, Britain, France, Italy and much of Eastern Europe are ready to push Huawei out.
The EU is alarmed by China’s growing influence and has called for a stronger alliance with the U.S. Biden administration to preserve the dominance of democracies in global governance.
Judy Dempsey, a researcher at the Carnegie Institution for European Studies, a think tank, recently wrote in an opinion piece, “If Germany is committed to transatlantic relations and security, Berlin must push more aggressively for a coherent EU policy toward China, and one that dovetails or converges with the incoming Biden Administration. “
Recent Comments