In the past few days, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea have been windy and stormy, with an unprecedented standoff between the U.S. and Chinese forces. Mainland PLA warplanes and fighter jets flew intensively over Taiwan’s airspace, U.S. aircraft carriers appeared in the South China Sea, and military aircraft from both countries even showed up at the same Time to fly in the same airspace in opposite directions. A geopolitical storm seems to be just around the corner.
Initially, the U.S. and China were both trying to hide their true intentions from each other. The Chinese government said that PLA warplanes were crossing the center line of the strait as a “routine” exercise, and the U.S. military said that the aircraft carrier’s visit to the South China Sea was a “routine operation” to defend freedom of navigation at sea. However, the Chinese mainland’s “Reference News” said in the mouth of Taiwanese analysts that the PLA’s move is ostensibly a military exercise, but in reality it is a warning to the United States. A media program called “News 247” unveiled the Chinese side’s “routine” drills, saying that the entry of Chinese warplanes into the Southwest Air Defense Identification Zone was not a drill, but a field test of the PLA’s combat system.
“Newswire 247 is clearly not an ordinary self-publisher, as it broadcasts more than a dozen news items every day, with professional production and broadcasting, and obviously has strong financial support behind it. What’s more, its ideological content and political stance are no different from those of mainland China’s official media, except that it says some tough things that even the war wolves in the Foreign Ministry wouldn’t dare to say. For example, in the program “Taiwan is on the verge of collapse!” broadcast on YouTube on Jan. 27, “Newswire 247″ was broadcasted on YouTube. Newswire 247” took an uncharacteristically murderous tone against the United States and Taiwan.
On the PLA warplanes flying over the center line of the strait, it said, the Chinese air force in their own airspace activities, what crime, the United States has no control; as long as the sovereignty-related matters, China has never been hard and soft, the United States as an outsider is not qualified to say three or four, better hide away, as far as possible, or will be in trouble. Regarding the unification of Taiwan by force, it said, “China’s action to promote unification by force will not be capped” and “the unification of Taiwan by force may be late, but will never be absent”; the unification of Taiwan by force depends on whether the other side accepts the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus. The mainland is not taking a hard hand now, mainly because it does not want the 23 million Taiwanese people to be caught in the crossfire. There are still many cards in the mainland’s hand, the most powerful of which are the trade and economic cards. It considers the U.S. commitment to Taiwan worthless, claiming that Trump has smashed the U.S. image to pieces and how much credibility the American word still has; it also asserts that American soldiers are most afraid of death and will not fight another unwinnable war in the wrong place at the wrong time, and so on.
This lunatic and maniacal clamor seems to reveal what the Beijing government is contemplating: the unification of Taiwan by force. We all know that the reunification of Taiwan has always been Xi Jinping‘s dream of a unified China, a big game that he thinks will surpass Mao Zedong as the greatest leader in China. But Xi has become increasingly impatient with the unification of Taiwan over the past few years, as demonstrated by his accelerated crushing of Hong Kong‘s “one country, two systems” and his total disregard for the negative impact on Taiwan of the bankruptcy of Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems. From the endless speculation of his think tanks, “reunification by force” has long been on Xi’s agenda. But the ideal day for military reunification in Xi’s mind may not be now.
But some recent changes between the U.S., China, and Taiwan have made Beijing furious: 1) the Biden administration formally invited Taiwan’s representative to the U.S., Mei-Chin Hsiao, to Biden’s inauguration, the highest courtesy extended to Taiwan since ’79; 2) the White House emphasized that its commitment to Taiwan is “solid as a rock”; and 3) Biden’s new defense secretary stated (4) Biden’s key cabinet members declared that the new administration would not only assist Taiwan in its self-defense, but would also support Taiwan’s international engagement. Finally, the U.S.-China trade war followed.
What also set Beijing alight was the Trump Administration‘s early declassification of the details of the Indo-Pacific strategy it developed before the end of its term. These include a commitment to deny China sustained air and sea control within the first island chain in the event of conflict; to defend the countries of the first island chain, including Taiwan; and to dominate all areas outside the first island chain. Each of these articles cuts to the heart of the Chinese Communist Party.
The Beijing government’s anger may explain the lunatic language and maniacal thinking of “Newswire 247”. Beijing wants to take this opportunity to warn Taiwan and the United States: don’t misjudge the mainland’s determination and will to unify Taiwan, and if Taiwan dares to become independent, we will dare to use force; Taiwan is China’s territory, and if the United States interferes in China’s internal affairs, it will cause trouble.
So does this mean that the Beijing government will advance its plans for the unification of Taiwan by force? If so, what preparations should Taiwan make? In what way would the United States intervene? And how will the Beijing regime be affected in the end? These once distant questions now suddenly seem extraordinarily eerily realistic and close at hand.
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